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Modeling risk dependence and portfolio VaR forecast through vine copula for cryptocurrencies.

ABSTRACT: Risk in finance may come from (negative) asset returns whilst payment loss is a typical risk in insurance. It is often that we encounter several risks, in practice, instead of single risk. In this paper, we construct a dependence modeling for financial risks and form a portfolio risk of cryptocurrencies. The marginal risk model is assumed to follow a heteroscedastic process of GARCH(1,1) model. The dependence structure is presented through vine copula. We carry out numerical analysis of cryptocurrencies returns and compute Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast along with its accuracy assessed through different backtesting methods. It is found that the VaR forecast of returns, by considering vine copula-based dependence among different returns, has higher forecast accuracy than that of returns under prefect dependence assumption as benchmark. In addition, through vine copula, the aggregate VaR forecast has not only lower value but also higher accuracy than the simple sum of individual VaR forecasts. This shows that vine copula-based forecasting procedure not only performs better but also provides a well-diversified portfolio.

SUBMITTER: Syuhada K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7757910 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling risk dependence and portfolio VaR forecast through vine copula for cryptocurrencies.

Syuhada Khreshna K Hakim Arief A

PloS one 20201223 12

Risk in finance may come from (negative) asset returns whilst payment loss is a typical risk in insurance. It is often that we encounter several risks, in practice, instead of single risk. In this paper, we construct a dependence modeling for financial risks and form a portfolio risk of cryptocurrencies. The marginal risk model is assumed to follow a heteroscedastic process of GARCH(1,1) model. The dependence structure is presented through vine copula. We carry out numerical analysis of cryptocu ...[more]

PMID: 33362227

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Project description:BackgroundGenes interact with each other as basic building blocks of life, forming a complicated network. The relationship between groups of genes with different functions can be represented as gene networks. With the deposition of huge microarray data sets in public domains, study on gene networking is now possible. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the reconstruction of gene networks from gene expression data. Recent work includes linear models, Boolean network models, and Bayesian networks. Among them, Bayesian networks seem to be the most effective in constructing gene networks. A major problem with the Bayesian network approach is the excessive computational time. This problem is due to the interactive feature of the method that requires large search space. Since fitting a model by using the copulas does not require iterations, elicitation of the priors, and complicated calculations of posterior distributions, the need for reference to extensive search spaces can be eliminated leading to manageable computational affords. Bayesian network approach produces a discretely expression of conditional probabilities. Discreteness of the characteristics is not required in the copula approach which involves use of uniform representation of the continuous random variables. Our method is able to overcome the limitation of Bayesian network method for gene-gene interaction, i.e. information loss due to binary transformation.ResultsWe analyzed the gene interactions for two gene data sets (one group is eight histone genes and the other group is 19 genes which include DNA polymerases, DNA helicase, type B cyclin genes, DNA primases, radiation sensitive genes, repaire related genes, replication protein A encoding gene, DNA replication initiation factor, securin gene, nucleosome assembly factor, and a subunit of the cohesin complex) by adopting a measure of directional dependence based on a copula function. We have compared our results with those from other methods in the literature. Although microarray results show a transcriptional co-regulation pattern and do not imply that the gene products are physically interactive, this tight genetic connection may suggest that each gene product has either direct or indirect connections between the other gene products. Indeed, recent comprehensive analysis of a protein interaction map revealed that those histone genes are physically connected with each other, supporting the results obtained by our method.ConclusionThe results illustrate that our method can be an alternative to Bayesian networks in modeling gene interactions. One advantage of our approach is that dependence between genes is not assumed to be linear. Another advantage is that our approach can detect directional dependence. We expect that our study may help to design artificial drug candidates, which can block or activate biologically meaningful pathways. Moreover, our copula approach can be extended to investigate the effects of local environments on protein-protein interactions. The copula mutual information approach will help to propose the new variant of ARACNE (Algorithm for the Reconstruction of Accurate Cellular Networks): an algorithm for the reconstruction of gene regulatory networks.

Dataset Information

Modeling risk dependence and portfolio VaR forecast through vine copula for cryptocurrencies.

Publications

Modeling risk dependence and portfolio VaR forecast through vine copula for cryptocurrencies.

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