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A simple, SIR-like but individual-based epidemic model: Application in comparison of COVID-19 in New York City and Wuhan.

ABSTRACT: In this study, an individual-based epidemic model, considering latent-infectious-recovery periods, is presented. The analytic solution of the model in the form of recursive formulae with a time-dependent transmission coefficient is derived and implanted in Excel. The simulated epidemic curves from the model fit very well with the daily reported cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China and New York City (NYC), USA. These simulations show that the transmission rate of NYC's COVID-19 is nearly 30% greater than the transmission rate of Wuhan's COVID-19, and that the actual number of cumulative infected people in NYC is around 9 times the reported number of cumulative COVID-19 cases in NYC. Results from this study also provide important information about latent period, infectious period and lockdown efficiency.

SUBMITTER: Liu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7759094 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A simple, SIR-like but individual-based epidemic model: Application in comparison of COVID-19 in New York City and Wuhan.

Liu Xiaoping X

Results in physics 20201224

In this study, an individual-based epidemic model, considering latent-infectious-recovery periods, is presented. The analytic solution of the model in the form of recursive formulae with a time-dependent transmission coefficient is derived and implanted in Excel. The simulated epidemic curves from the model fit very well with the daily reported cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China and New York City (NYC), USA. These simulations show that the transmission rate of NYC's COVID-19 is nearly 30% greater ...[more]

PMID: 33391987

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