Temporal trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation in primary care records: a population-based cohort study.
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ABSTRACT: Objectives
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a heart condition associated with a fivefold increased risk of stroke. The condition can be detected in primary care and treatment can greatly reduce the risk of stroke. In recent years, a number of policy initiatives have tried to improve diagnosis and treatment of AF, including local National Health Service schemes and the Quality and Outcomes Framework. We aimed to examine trends in the incidence of recorded AF in primary care records from English practices between 2004 and 2018.Design
Longitudinal cohort study.Setting
English primary care electronic health records linked to Index of Multiple Deprivation data.Participants
Cohort of 3.5 million patients over 40 years old registered in general practices in England, contributing 22 million person-years of observation between 2004 and 2018.Primary and secondary outcome measures
Incident AF was identified through newly recorded AF codes in the patients' records. Yearly incidence rates were stratified by gender, age group and a measure of deprivation.Results
Incidence rates were stable before 2010 and then rose and peaked in 2015 at 5.07 (95% CI 4.94 to 5.20) cases per 1000 person-years. Incidence was higher in males (4.95 (95% CI 4.91 to 4.99) cases per 1000 person-years vs 4.12 (95% CI 4.08 to 4.16) in females) and rises markedly with age (0.58 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.59) cases per 1000 person-years in 40-54 years old vs 21.7 (95% CI 21.4 to 22.0) cases in over 85s). The increase in incidence over time was observed mainly in people over the age of 75, particularly men. There was no evidence that temporal trends in incidence were associated with deprivation.Conclusions
Changes in clinical practice and policy initiatives since 2004 have been associated with increased rates of diagnosis of AF up until 2015, but rates declined from 2015 to 2018.
SUBMITTER: Mendonca SC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7759967 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundPopulation-based studies of atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence are needed to inform health-service planning, but evidence is conflicting. We assessed trends of AF incidence in a large general population cohort from England.MethodsWe used linked primary and secondary electronic health records of 3.4 million individuals. Eligible patients aged 16 years and older contributed data between Jan 2 1998 and Dec 31 2017. For patients with incident AF, we extracted baseline characteristics, comorbidities, socioeconomic status and geographic region. We calculated standardised rates by applying direct age and sex standardisation to the 2013 European Standard Population. We applied year-specific, age-specific and sex-specific incidence to UK census mid-year population estimates for yearly total incident AF.FindingsComparing 2017 to 1998 standardised AF incidence increased by 30% (322 vs. 247 per 100 000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·27-1·33). Absolute number of incident AF increased by 72% (202 333 vs. 117 880), due to an increasing number of older persons. Comorbidity burden at diagnosis of AF increased (3·74 [SD 2·29] vs 2·58 [1·83]; adjusted difference 1·26, 95% CI 1·14-1·39). The age of AF diagnosis declined in the most deprived individuals compared to the most affluent (adjusted difference 0·74 years, 0·62-0·88). Across the study period, age-standardised incidence was higher in men than women (IRR 1·49; 95% CI 1·46-1·52), and men were younger at diagnosis (adjusted difference 5·53 years; 95% CI 5·36 to 5·69). Socioeconomically deprived individuals had more comorbidities and a higher incidence of AF than the most affluent individuals (IRR 1·20; 95% CI 1·15-1·24).InterpretationIn England AF incidence has increased, and the socioeconomic gradient in age at diagnosis and comorbidity burden widened. This changing burden requires policy-based interventions to achieve health equity.FundingBritish Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health Research.
| S-EPMC9198843 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is common in older people and is associated with increased stroke risk that may be reduced by oral anticoagulation (OAC). Frailty also increases with increasing age, yet the extent of OAC prescription in older people according to extent of frailty in people with AF is insufficiently described.MethodsAn electronic health records study of 536,955 patients aged ≥65 years from ResearchOne in England (384 General Practices), over 15.4 months, last follow-up 11th April 2017. OAC prescription for AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, adjusted (demographic and treatments) risk of all-cause mortality, and subsequent cerebrovascular disease, bleeding and falls were estimated by electronic frailty index (eFI) category of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty.ResultsAF prevalence and mean CHA2DS2-Vasc for those with AF increased with increasing eFI category (fit 2.9%, 2.2; mild 11.2%, 3.2; moderate 22.2%, 4.0; and severe 31.5%, 5.0). For AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, OAC prescription was higher for mild (53.2%), moderate (55.6%) and severe (53.4%) eFI categories than fit (41.7%). In those with AF and eligible for OAC, frailty was associated with increased risk of death (HR for severe frailty compared with fit 4.09, 95% confidence interval 3.43-4.89), gastrointestinal bleeding (2.17, 1.45-3.25), falls (8.03, 4.60-14.03) and, among women, stroke (3.63, 1.10-12.02).ConclusionAmong older people in England, AF and stroke risk increased with increasing degree of frailty; however, OAC prescription approximated 50%. Given competing demands of mortality, morbidity and stroke prevention, greater attention to stratified stroke prevention is needed for this group of the population.
| S-EPMC8099225 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies on lone/unexplained atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF) did not exclude patients with contemporary secondary AF triggers. We characterized unexplained AF using a strict definition, and compared it to secondary AF.MethodsIn this population-based study, unexplained AF was defined by the lack of any identifiable triggering medical/surgical diagnosis. Comparisons by AF type (unexplained vs secondary), age-of-onset (≤ / > 65 years), and sex were undertaken. Data were acquired by linking 6 population databases maintained by the Alberta Ministry of Health over a 9-year period (April 2006 to March 2015). The primary composite outcome of stroke, transient ischemic attack, thromboembolism, and/or death was assessed.ResultsThere were 33,150 incident AF diagnoses identified, including 1145 patients (3.5%) with unexplained AF, 931 (81.2%) of whom were aged ≤ 65 years (2.8% of diagnoses, and 79% male). Patients with unexplained AF less often received rate/rhythm-control drugs (P < 0.0001), but they more often underwent electrical cardioversion (P < 0.0001) vs secondary AF patients. Men were younger at unexplained AF diagnosis (45 [interquartile range: 34-59] vs 58 [interquartile range: 40-69] years; P < 0.001). After adjusting for age at diagnosis, there were no sex-based differences in the primary outcome. Event-free survival in young unexplained AF (age ≤ 65 years) was 99.4% at 1 year and 98.3% at 3 years. At 3 years, hospitalization(s)/emergency visit(s) for noncardiovascular reasons and for AF occurred in 56.6% and 23.8% of these patients, respectively.ConclusionsUsing a strict contemporary definition of unexplained AF, this study shows that the condition is rare, predominantly male, and has excellent event-free survival. However, the high rate of acute hospital utilization after diagnosis is concerning.
| S-EPMC8767123 | biostudies-literature
Project description:(1) Background: AF-related strokes will triple by 2060, are associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline, and alone or in combination, will be one of the main health and economic burdens on the European population. The main goal of this paper is to describe the incidence of new AF associated with stroke, cognitive decline and mortality among people at high risk for AF. (2) Methods: Multicenter, observational, retrospective, community-based studies were conducted from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021. The setting was primary care centers. A total of 40,297 people aged ≥65 years without previous AF or stroke were stratified by AFrisk at 5 years. The main measurements were the overall incidence density/1000 person-years (CI95%) of AF and stroke, prevalence of cognitive decline, and Kaplan-Meier curve. (3) Results: In total, 46.4% women, 77.65 ± 8.46 years old on average showed anAF incidence of 9.9/103/year (CI95% 9.5-10.3), associated with a four-fold higher risk of stroke (CI95% 3.4-4.7), cognitive impairment(OR 1.34 (CI95% 1.1-1.5)), and all-cause mortality (OR 1.14 (CI95% 1.0-1.2)), but there was no significant difference in ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, or peripheral arteriopathy. Unknown AF was diagnosed in 9.4% and of these patients, 21.1% were diagnosed with new stroke. (4) Conclusions: The patients at high AF risk (Q4th) already had an increased cardiovascular risk before they were diagnosed with AF.
| S-EPMC10135492 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe heritability of atrial fibrillation (AF), the contribution of genetic and environmental factors, and the association of a family history of AF with prognosis are unclear.ObjectivesTo measure genetic and environmental factors in the familial aggregation of AF and to estimate the association of a family history of AF with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).Design, setting, and participantsIn this Taiwanese nationwide population-based study among more than 23 million people, a custom data set was obtained using the data of all patients having a diagnosis of AF recorded between January 1996 and December 2013 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The study population comprised all 23 422 955 individuals registered with the database in 2013, of whom 177 770 had a diagnosis of AF and were included in the heritability estimation. From the latter, a subgroup of patients having newly diagnosed AF with a first-degree relative affected by AF between 2000 and 2010 were selected and matched 1:4 to controls without a family history for estimating MACE-free survival. The dates of analysis were January 2010 to December 2013.Main outcomes and measuresThe prevalence and relative risk of AF in relatives of patients with AF, as well as the relative contributions of heritability and shared and nonshared environmental factors to AF susceptibility. Also measured was MACE-free survival after AF was diagnosed.ResultsIn total, 1510 patients (204 [13.5%] female; mean [SD] age, 57.9 [9.2] years) had newly diagnosed AF with a first-degree relative affected by AF. Individuals with a first-degree relative affected by AF had a relative risk of 1.92 (95% CI, 1.84-1.99) for AF. The accountability for the phenotypic variance of AF was 19.9% for genetic factors (heritability), 3.5% for shared environmental factors, and 76.6% for nonshared environmental factors. After matching for age, sex, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, previous stroke, and anticoagulation, incident AF patients with vs without an affected first-degree relative had similar MACE-free survival.Conclusions and relevanceGenetic and environmental factors were associated with AF, with nonshared environmental factors accounting for three-fourths of the phenotypic variance in Taiwan. Patients having AF with a first-degree relative affected by AF did not have more MACE. Therefore, family history may not be particularly informative in the diagnosis or management of AF.
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Project description:ImportanceAtrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, and multiple studies have reported increasing AF incidence rates over time, although the underlying explanations remain unclear.ObjectivesTo estimate AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 in a community-based setting and to investigate possible explanations for increasing AF by evaluating the changing features of incident AF cases and the pool of patients at risk for AF over time.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included 500 684 patients who received primary care and other health care services for more than 2 years through a single integrated health care delivery network in Pennsylvania. Data collection was conducted from January 2003 to December 2018. The base study population had no documentation of AF in the electronic medical record for at least 2 years prior to baseline. Data analysis was conducted from May to December 2019.Main outcomes and measuresIncident AF cases were identified through diagnostic codes recorded at inpatient or outpatient encounters. Age- and sex-adjusted AF incidence rates were estimated by calendar year from 2006 to 2018 both overall and across subgroups, including according to diagnostic setting (inpatient vs outpatient) and priority (primary vs secondary diagnosis).ResultsAmong 514 293 patients meeting criteria for the base study population, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 47 (18) years and 282 103 (54.9%) were women; 13 609 (2.6%) met AF diagnostic criteria on or prior to the baseline date and were excluded. Among 500 684 patients free of AF at baseline, standardized AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 increased from 4.74 (95% CI, 4.58-4.90) to 6.82 (95% CI, 6.65-7.00) cases per 1000 person-years, increasing significantly over time (P < .001). Incidence rates increased in all age and sex subgroups, although absolute rate increases were largest among those aged 85 years or older. The fraction of incident AF cases among individuals aged 85 years or older increased from 135 of 1075 (12.6%) in 2006 to 451 of 2427 (18.6%) in 2017. Patients with incident AF were more likely over time to have high body mass index (1351 of 3389 patients [39.9%] in 2006-2008 vs 4504 of 9214 [48.9%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), hypertension (2764 [81.6%] in 2006-2008 vs 7937 [86.1%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), and ischemic stroke (328 [9.7%] in 2006-2008 vs 1455 [15.8%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), but less likely to have coronary artery disease (1533 [45.2%] in 2006-2008 vs 3810 [41.4%] in 2015-2018; P < .001). Among 22 077 new cases of AF, 9146 (41.4%) were diagnosed as inpatients and 5731 (26.0%) as the primary diagnosis. Incidence rates of AF increased significantly in all diagnostic setting and priority pairings (eg, inpatient, primary: rate ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08; P < .001). Among patients at risk for AF, high BMI and hypertension increased over time (BMI: 71 433 of 198 245 [36.0%] in 2007 to 130 218 of 282 270 [46.1%] in 2017; hypertension: 79 977 [40.3%] in 2007 to 134 404 [47.6%] in 2017). Documentation of short-term ECG increased over time (23 297 of 207 349 [11.2%] in 2008 to 45 027 [16.0%] in 2017); however, long-term ECG monitoring showed no change (1871 [0.9%] in 2007 to 4036 [1.4%] in 2017).Conclusions and relevanceIn this community-based study, AF incidence rates increased significantly during the study period. Concurrent increases were observed in AF risk factors in the at-risk population and short-term ECG use.
| S-EPMC7455855 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We aimed to describe temporal trends in emergency department (ED) visits of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) over 12 years. A repeated cross-sectional analysis of ED visits in AF patients using the Korean nationwide claims database between 2006 and 2017 were conducted. We identified AF patients who had ≥1 ED visits. The incidence of ED visits among total AF population, cause of ED visit, and clinical outcomes were evaluated. During 12 years, the annual numbers of AF patients who attended ED at least once a year continuously increased (40,425 to 99,763). However, the annual incidence of ED visits of AF patients was stationary at about 30% because the number of total AF patients also increased during the same period. The most common cause of ED visits was cerebral infarction. Although patients had a higher risk profile over time, the 30-day and 90-day mortality after ED visit decreased over time. ED visits due to ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, and myocardial infarction decreased, whereas ED visits due to AF, gastrointestinal bleeding, and other major bleeding slightly increased among total AF population over 12 years. A substantial proportion of AF patients attended ED every year, and the annual numbers of AF patients who visited the ED significantly increased over 12 years. Optimized management approaches in a holistic and integrated manner should be provided to reduce ED visits of AF patients.
| S-EPMC7290994 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac rhythm disorder with a significant health burden. The aim of this study was to characterise patients with recently diagnosed AF and to estimate the rates of comorbidities and outcome events requiring hospitalisation in routine clinical practice.Pharmacoepidemiological cohort study using observational data.This study included 16 513 patients with a first diagnosis of AF between 1 January 2005 and 28 February 2010 (newly diagnosed patients) using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and the Office for National Statistics mortality data. Exposure was stratified by vitamin K antagonist (VKA) exposure (non-use, current, recent and past exposure) based on prescriptions and/or international normalised ratio measurements, and followed for outcome events of interest based on diagnosis codes in the databases, that is, vascular outcomes, bleeding events and others. The main focus of the study was on outcome events requiring hospitalisation using the HES data.The incidence of vascular outcome hospitalisations (myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or systemic arterial peripheral embolism) was 3.8 (95% CI 3.5 to 4.0)/100 patient-years. The incidence of stroke was 0.9 (0.8 to 1.1) during current VKA exposure, 2.2 (1.6 to 2.9) for recent, 2.4 (1.9 to 2.9) for past and 3.4 (3.1 to 3.7) during non-use. MI incidence was 0.7 (0.6 to 0.9) for current VKA exposure, 0.7 (0.4 to 1.2) for recent, 1.1 (0.8 to 1.5) for past and 1.9 (1.7 to 2.1) during non-use. The incidence of bleeding event hospitalisations was 3.8 (3.4 to 4.2) for current VKA exposure, 4.5 (3.7 to 5.5) for recent, 2.7 (2.2 to 3.3) for past and 2.9 (2.6 to 3.2) during non-use; 38% of intracranial bleeds and 6% of gastrointestinal bleeds were fatal.This population-based study from recent years provides a comprehensive characterisation of newly diagnosed patients with AF and incidence estimates of common outcomes with a focus on hospitalised events stratified by VKA exposure. This study will help to place future data on new oral anticoagulants into perspective.
| S-EPMC3913087 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background and aimsReports of outcomes after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and hospitalization rates following AF diagnosis over time, by cause and by patient features.MethodsIndividuals aged ≥16 years with a first diagnosis of AF were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset from 1 January 2001, to 31 December 2017. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalization at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for mortality and incidence RRs (IRRs) for hospitalization and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 2001/02 and 2016/17, adjusted for age, sex, region, socio-economic status, and 18 major comorbidities.ResultsOf 72 412 participants, mean (standard deviation) age was 75.6 (12.4) years, and 44 762 (61.8%) had ≥3 comorbidities. All-cause mortality declined (RR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 0.72; 95% CI 0.65-0.80), with large declines for cardiovascular (RR 0.46; 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and cerebrovascular mortality (RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29-0.60) but not for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes of death (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.80-1.04). In 2016/17, deaths caused from dementia (67, 8.0%), outstripped deaths from acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and acute stroke combined (56, 6.7%, P < .001). Overall hospitalization rates increased (IRR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), especially for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes (IRR 1.42; 95% CI 1.39-1.45). Older, more deprived, and hospital-diagnosed AF patients experienced higher event rates.ConclusionsAfter AF diagnosis, cardio/cerebrovascular mortality and hospitalization has declined, whilst hospitalization for non-cardio/cerebrovascular disease has increased.
| S-EPMC10635669 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac cause of ischemic stroke. However, the relation between AF and stroke care outcomes in diverse populations is understudied. We aimed to evaluate sex and race-ethnic disparities associated with AF in hospital stroke outcomes utilizing data from the FLorida PuErto Rico Atrial Fibrillation (FLiPER-AF) Stroke Study. The study included 104,308 ischemic stroke cases with available information on AF status enrolled in a state-wide stroke registry from 2010 to 2016. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to evaluate the association between AF and stroke outcomes and the modification effects on the associations by sex and by race-ethnicity, adjusted for socio-demographic status, vascular risk factors and stroke severity. AF was present in 23% of ischemic stroke cases. AF was associated with worse disability at discharge (OR=1.11, 95% CI, 1.04-1.18), less discharge to home (OR=0.89, 0.85-0.92), and longer length of hospital stay (LOS>6 days, OR=1.53, 1.46-1.60). Interaction analyses showed that the association between AF and less discharge to home was stronger in women than men (p for interaction <0.001), as well as in FL-whites than in FL-blacks, FL-Hispanics or PR-Hispanics (p for interaction=0.002). The association between AF and prolonged LOS was more prominent in PR-Hispanics than in FL-blacks, FL-Hispanics, or FL-whites (p for interaction <0.001). From 2010 to 2016, the effects of AF on hospital length of stay attenuated (p for interaction<0.001). AF was associated with poor disability at discharge, less discharge to home, and prolonged hospital length of stay for acute stroke care. The effect of AF on length of stay attenuated over time. Sex and race-ethnic disparities were observed in the effect of AF on being less discharge to home and prolonged hospital stay. Further research is needed to identify and modify the biologic and systems of care contributors to these disparities.
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