Dataset Information

Developing and validating a model for predicting 7-day mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department: an initial alarm score by a prospective prediction model study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To set up a prediction model for the 7-day in-hospital mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department (ED) because it is high but no appropriate initial alarm score is available.

Design

This is a prospective cohort study for prediction model development.

Setting

In a tertiary referred hospital in northern Taiwan.

Participants

ED-admitted medical patients in hospitalist care wards were enrolled during May 2010 to October 2016. Two-thirds of them were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort for development of the model and cross-validation was performed in the validation cohort.

Primary outcome measured

7-day in-hospital mortality.

Results

During the study period, 8649 patients were enrolled for analysis. The mean age was 71.05 years, and 51.91% were male. The most common admission diagnoses were pneumonia (36%) and urinary tract infection (20.05%). In the derivation cohort, multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression revealed that a low Barthel Index Score, triage level 1 at the ED, presence of cancer, metastasis and admission diagnoses of pneumonia and sepsis were independently associated with 7 days in-hospital mortality. Based on the probability developed from the multivariable model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the derivation group was 0.81 (0.79-0.85). The result in the validation cohort was comparable. The prediction score modified by the six independent factors had high sensitivity of 88.03% and a negative predictive value of 99.51% for a cut-off value of 4, whereas the specificity and positive predictive value were 89.61% and 10.55%, respectively, when the cut-off value was a score of 6.

Conclusion

The 7-day in-hospital mortality in the hospitalist care ward is 2.8%. The initial alarm score could help clinicians to prioritise or exclude patients who need urgent and intensive care.

SUBMITTER: Hsieh MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7783526 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Developing and validating a model for predicting 7-day mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department: an initial alarm score by a prospective prediction model study.

Hsieh Ming-Ju MJ Hsu Nin-Chieh NC Lin Yu-Feng YF Shu Chin-Chung CC Chiang Wen-Chu WC Ma Matthew Huei-Ming MH Sheng Wang-Huei WH

BMJ open 20210104 1

<h4>Objectives</h4>To set up a prediction model for the 7-day in-hospital mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department (ED) because it is high but no appropriate initial alarm score is available.<h4>Design</h4>This is a prospective cohort study for prediction model development.<h4>Setting</h4>In a tertiary referred hospital in northern Taiwan.<h4>Participants</h4>ED-admitted medical patients in hospitalist care wards were enrolled during May 2010 to October 2016. Two-thirds of th ...[more]

PMID: 33397665

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Dataset Information

Developing and validating a model for predicting 7-day mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department: an initial alarm score by a prospective prediction model study.

Objectives

Design

Setting

Participants

Primary outcome measured

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Developing and validating a model for predicting 7-day mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department: an initial alarm score by a prospective prediction model study.

Similar Datasets

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