Dataset Information

Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Future changes in climate are likely to adversely affect human health by affecting concentrations of particulate matter sized less than 2.5 ?m (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in many areas. However, the degree to which these outcomes may be mitigated by reducing air pollutant emissions is not well understood.

Objective

To model the associations between future changes in climate, air quality, and human health for 2 climate models and under 2 air pollutant emission scenarios.

Design, setting, and participants

This modeling study simulated meteorological conditions over the coterminous continental US during a 1995 to 2005 baseline and over the 21st century (2025-2100) by dynamically downscaling representations of a high warming scenario from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Coupled Model version 3 (CM3) global climate models. Using a chemical transport model, PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were simulated under a 2011 air pollutant emission data set and a 2040 projection. The changes in PM2.5 and O3-attributable deaths associated with climate change among the US census-projected population were estimated for 2030, 2050, 2075, and 2095 for each of 2 emission inventories and climate models. Data were analyzed from June 2018 to June 2020.

Main outcomes and measures

The main outcomes were simulated change in summer season means of the maximum daily 8-hour mean O3, annual mean PM2.5, population-weighted exposure, and the number of avoided or incurred deaths associated with these pollutants. Results are reported for 2030, 2050, 2075, and 2095, compared with 2000, for 2 climate models and 2 air pollutant emissions data sets.

Results

The projected increased maximum daily temperatures through 2095 were up to 7.6 °C for the CESM model and 11.8 °C for the CM3 model. Under each climate model scenario by 2095, compared with 2000, an estimated additional 21?000 (95% CI, 14?000-28?000) PM2.5-attributable deaths and 4100 (95% CI, 2200-6000) O3-attributable deaths were projected to occur. These projections decreased to an estimated 15?000 (95% CI, 10?000-20?000) PM2.5-attributable deaths and 640 (95% CI, 340-940) O3-attributable deaths when simulated using a future emission inventory that accounted for reduced anthropogenic emissions.

Conclusions and relevance

These findings suggest that reducing future air pollutant emissions could also reduce the climate-driven increase in deaths associated with air pollution by hundreds to thousands.

SUBMITTER: Fann NL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7783541 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health.

Fann Neal L NL Nolte Christopher G CG Sarofim Marcus C MC Martinich Jeremy J Nassikas Nicholas J NJ

JAMA network open 20210104 1

<h4>Importance</h4>Future changes in climate are likely to adversely affect human health by affecting concentrations of particulate matter sized less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in many areas. However, the degree to which these outcomes may be mitigated by reducing air pollutant emissions is not well understood.<h4>Objective</h4>To model the associations between future changes in climate, air quality, and human health for 2 climate models and under 2 air pollutant emission scenarios.<h4>D ...[more]

PMID: 33394002

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Project description:We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios.Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens.During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation.Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

Dataset Information

Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health.

Importance

Objective

Design, setting, and participants

Main outcomes and measures

Results

Conclusions and relevance

Publications

Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health.

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