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The Epidemiology and Predictors of Outcomes Among Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in a Large Community Healthcare System in South Florida.

ABSTRACT: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major public health concern. The aim of this study was to describe the presenting characteristics, epidemiology and predictors of outcomes among confirmed COVID-19 cases seen at a large community healthcare system which serves the epicenter and diverse region of Florida. We conducted a retrospective analysis of individuals with lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who were seen, from March 2, 2020 to May 31, 2020, at Memorial Healthcare System in South Florida. Data was extracted from a COVID-19 registry of patients with lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Univariate and backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of key study outcomes. There were a total of 1692 confirmed COVID-19 patients included in this study. Increasing age was found to be a significant predictor of hospitalization, 30-day readmission and death. Having a temperature of 38 °C or more and increasing comorbidity score were also associated with an increased risk of hospitalization. Significant predictors of ICU admission included having a saturated oxygen level less than 90%, hypertension, dementia, rheumatologic disease, having a respiratory rate greater than 24 breaths per minute. Being of Hispanic ethnicity and immunosuppressant utilization greatly increased the risk of 30-day readmission. Having an oxygen saturation less than 90% and an underlying neurological disorder were associated with an increased likelihood of death. Results show that a patient's demographic, underlying condition and vitals at triage may increase or reduce their risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, 30-day readmission or death.

SUBMITTER: Samuels S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7787879 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:While efficacy data exist, there are limited data on the outcomes of patients on third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa in actual practice. Being able to identify predictors of switch to third-line ART will be essential for planning for future need. We identify predictors of switch to third-line ART among patients with significant viraemia on a protease inhibitor (PI)-based second-line ART regimen. Additionally, we describe characteristics of all patients on third-line at a large public sector HIV clinic and present their early outcomes.Retrospective analysis of adults (??18 years) on a PI-based second-line ART regimen at Themba Lethu Clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa as of 01 August 2012, when third-line treatment became available in South Africa, with significant viraemia on second-line ART (defined as at least one viral load ??1000 copies/mL on second-line ART after 01 August 2012) to identify predictors of switch to third-line (determined by genotype resistance testing). Third-line ART was defined as a regimen containing etravirine, raltegravir or ritonavir boosted darunavir, between August 2012 and January 2016. To assess predictors of switch to third-line ART we used Cox proportional hazards regression among those with significant viraemia on second-line ART after 01 August 2012. Then among all patients on third-line ART we describe viral load suppression, defined as a viral load <?400 copies/mL, after starting third-line ART.Among 719 patients in care and on second-line ART as of August 2012 (with at least one viral load ??1000 copies/mL after 01 August 2012), 36 (5.0% over a median time of 54 months) switched to third-line. Time on second-line therapy (??96 vs.?<?96 weeks) (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 2.53 95% CI 1.03-6.22) and never reaching virologic suppression while on second-line ART (aHR: 3.37 95% CI 1.47-7.73) were identified as predictors of switch. In a separate cohort of patients on third-line ART, 78.3% (47/60) and 83.3% (35/42) of those in care and with a viral load suppressed their viral load at 6 and 12 months, respectively.Our results show that the need for third-line is low (5%), but that patients' who switch to third-line ART have good early treatment outcomes and are able to suppress their viral load. Adherence counselling and resistance testing should be prioritized for patients that are at risk of failure, in particular those who never suppress on second-line and those who have been on PI-based regimen for extended periods.

Dataset Information

The Epidemiology and Predictors of Outcomes Among Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in a Large Community Healthcare System in South Florida.

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