Dataset Information

Public health impact and cost effectiveness of routine and catch-up vaccination of girls and women with a nine-valent HPV vaccine in Japan: a model-based study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Combined with cancer screening programs, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) can significantly reduce the high health and economic burden of HPV-related disease in Japan. The objective of this study was to assess the health impact and cost effectiveness of routine and catch-up vaccination of girls and women aged 11-26?years with a 4-valent (4vHPV) or 9-valent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine in Japan compared with no vaccination.

Methods

We used a mathematical model adapted to the population and healthcare settings in Japan. We compared no vaccination and routine vaccination of 12-16-year old girls with 1) 4vHPV vaccine, 2) 9vHPV vaccine, and 3) 9vHPV vaccine in addition to a temporary catch-up vaccination of 17-26?years old girls and women with 9vHPV. We estimated the expected number of disease cases and deaths, discounted (at 2% per year) future costs (in 2020 ¥) and discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER) of each strategy over a time horizon of 100?years. To test the robustness of the conclusions, we conducted scenario and sensitivity analyses.

Results

Over 100?years, compared with no vaccination, 9vHPV vaccination was projected to reduce the incidence of 9vHPV-related cervical cancer by 86% (from 15.24 new cases per 100,000 women in 2021 to 2.02 in 2121). A greater number of cervical cancer cases (484,248) and cancer-related deaths (50,102) were avoided through the described catch-up vaccination program. Routine HPV vaccination with 4vHPV or 9vHPV vaccine prevented 5,521,000 cases of anogenital warts among women and men. Around 23,520 and 21,400 diagnosed non-cervical cancers are prevented by catch-up vaccination among women and men, respectively. Compared with no vaccination, the ICER of 4vHPV vaccination was ¥975,364/QALY. Compared to 4vHPV, 9vHPV?+?Catch-up had an ICER of ¥1,534,493/QALY.

Conclusions

A vaccination program with a 9-valent vaccine targeting 12 to 16?year-old girls together with a temporary catchup program will avert significant numbers of cases of HPV-related diseases among both men and women. Furthermore, such a program was the most cost effective among the vaccination strategies we considered, with an ICER well below a threshold of ¥5000,000/QALY.

SUBMITTER: Cody P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7789539 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Public health impact and cost effectiveness of routine and catch-up vaccination of girls and women with a nine-valent HPV vaccine in Japan: a model-based study.

Cody Palmer P Tobe Keisuke K Abe Machiko M Elbasha Elamin H EH

BMC infectious diseases 20210106 1

<h4>Background</h4>Combined with cancer screening programs, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) can significantly reduce the high health and economic burden of HPV-related disease in Japan. The objective of this study was to assess the health impact and cost effectiveness of routine and catch-up vaccination of girls and women aged 11-26 years with a 4-valent (4vHPV) or 9-valent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine in Japan compared with no vaccination.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a mathematical model adapt ...[more]

PMID: 33407188

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Project description:BackgroundCurrent prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two of the most oncogenic types, HPV-16 and -18, which contribute to roughly 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. Second-generation HPV vaccines include a 9-valent vaccine, which targets five additional oncogenic HPV types (i.e., 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58) that contribute to another 15-30% of cervical cancer cases. The objective of this study was to determine a range of vaccine costs for which the 9-valent vaccine would be cost-effective in comparison to the current vaccines in two less developed countries (i.e., Kenya and Uganda).Methods and findingsThe analysis was performed using a natural history disease simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer. The mathematical model simulates individual women from an early age and tracks health events and resource use as they transition through clinically-relevant health states over their lifetime. Epidemiological data on HPV prevalence and cancer incidence were used to adapt the model to Kenya and Uganda. Health benefit, or effectiveness, from HPV vaccination was measured in terms of life expectancy, and costs were measured in international dollars (I$). The incremental cost of the 9-valent vaccine included the added cost of the vaccine counterbalanced by costs averted from additional cancer cases prevented. All future costs and health benefits were discounted at an annual rate of 3% in the base case analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate how infection with multiple HPV types, unidentifiable HPV types in cancer cases, and cross-protection against non-vaccine types could affect the potential cost range of the 9-valent vaccine. In the base case analysis in Kenya, we found that vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective (i.e., had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below per-capita GDP), compared to the current vaccines provided the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$9.7 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$5.2 and I$16.2 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP where the 9-valent vaccine would be considered cost-effective, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$27.3, I$14.5 and I$45.3 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. In Uganda, vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective when the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$8.3 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$4.5 and I$13.7 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$23.4, I$12.6 and I$38.4 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively.ConclusionsThis study provides a threshold range of incremental costs associated with the 9-valent HPV vaccine that would make it a cost-effective intervention in comparison to currently available HPV vaccines in Kenya and Uganda. These prices represent a 71% and 61% increase over the price offered to the GAVI Alliance ($5 per dose) for the currently available 2- and 4-valent vaccines in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critical challenges around affordability and feasibility of HPV vaccination and other competing needs in low-resource settings such as Kenya and Uganda remain.

Project description:The HPV vaccine was introduced to Malaysian national immunization programme in 2010. The current implementation age of HPV vaccination in Malaysian is at the age of 13 years school girls, given according to a 3 doses protocol which may complicate implementation and compliance. Aim of the study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination regime comparing twice versus thrice HPV vaccinations dose regime among adolescent girls in Malaysia.A Markov cohort model reflecting the natural history of HPV infection accounting for oncogenic and low-risk HPV was adapted for 13 year old Malaysian girls cohort (n = 274,050). Transition probabilities, utilities values, epidemiological and cost data were sourced from published literature and local data. Vaccine effectiveness was based on overall efficacy reported from 3-doses clinical trials, with the assumption that the 2-doses is non-inferior to the 3-doses allowing overall efficacy to be inferred from the 3-doses immunogenicity data. Price parity and life-long protection were assumed. The payer perspective was adopted, with appropriate discounting for costs (3 %) and outcomes (3 %). One way sensitivity analysis was conducted. The sensitivity analysis on cost of vaccine, vaccine coverage and discount rate with a 2-doses protocol was performed.The 3-doses and 2-doses regimes showed same number of Cervical Cancers averted (361 cases); QALYs saved at 7,732,266. However, the lifetime protection under the 2-doses regime, showed a significant cost-savings of RM 36, 722,700 compared to the 3-doses scheme. The MOH Malaysia could vaccinate 137,025 more girls in this country using saving 2-doses regime vaccination programme. The model predicted that 2-doses HPV vaccination schemes can avoid additional 180 Cervical Cancers and 63 deaths compare to 3-doses.A 2-doses HPV vaccination scheme may enable Malaysian women to be protected at a lower cost than that achievable under a 3-doses scheme, while avoiding the same number of Cervical Cancer cases and deaths. Using the saving money with 2-doses, more Cervical Cancers and deaths can be avoided.

Project description:BackgroundHuman papillomavirus (HPV) is the most widespread sexually transmitted infection worldwide. It causes several health consequences, in particular accounting for the majority of cervical cancer cases in women. In the United Kingdom, a vaccination campaign targeting 12-year-old girls started in 2008; this campaign has been successful, with high uptake and reduced HPV prevalence observed in vaccinated cohorts. Recently, attention has focused on vaccinating both sexes, due to HPV-related diseases in males (particularly for high-risk men who have sex with men) and an equity argument over equalising levels of protection.MethodsWe constructed an epidemiological model for HPV transmission in the UK, accounting for nine of the most common HPV strains. We complemented this with an economic model to determine the likely health outcomes (healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years) for individuals from the epidemiological model. We then tested vaccination with the three HPV vaccines currently available, vaccinating either girls alone or both sexes. For each strategy we calculated the threshold price per vaccine dose, i.e. the maximum amount paid for the added health benefits of vaccination to be worth the cost of each vaccine dose. We calculated results at 3.5% discounting, and also 1.5%, to consider the long-term health effects of HPV infection.ResultsAt 3.5% discounting, continuing to vaccinate girls remains highly cost-effective compared to halting vaccination, with threshold dose prices of £56-£108. Vaccination of girls and boys is less cost-effective (£25-£53). Compared to vaccinating girls only, adding boys to the programme is not cost-effective, with negative threshold prices (-£6 to -£3) due to the costs of administration. All threshold prices increase when using 1.5% discounting, and adding boys becomes cost-effective (£36-£47). These results are contingent on the UK's high vaccine uptake; for lower uptake rates, adding boys (at the same uptake rate) becomes more cost effective.ConclusionsVaccinating girls is extremely cost-effective compared with no vaccination, vaccinating both sexes is less so. Adding boys to an already successful girls-only programme has a low cost-effectiveness, as males have high protection through herd immunity. If future health effects are weighted more heavily, threshold prices increase and vaccination becomes cost-effective.

Project description:ObjectiveThe Ministry of Health (MOH), Mongolia, is considering introducing 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in its national immunization programme to prevent the burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination in Mongolia.MethodsThe incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination was assessed using an age-stratified static multiple cohort model. The risk of various clinical presentations of pneumococcal disease (meningitis, pneumonia, non-meningitis non-pneumonia invasive pneumococcal disease and acute otitis media) at all ages for thirty birth cohorts was assessed. The analysis considered both health system and societal perspectives. A 3+0 vaccine schedule and price of US$3.30 per dose was assumed for the baseline scenario based on Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's advance market commitment tail price.ResultsThe ICER of PCV13 introduction is estimated at US$52 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted (health system perspective), and cost-saving (societal perspective). Although indirect effects of PCV have been well-documented, a conservative scenario that does not consider indirect effects estimated PCV13 introduction to cost US$79 per DALY averted (health system perspective), and US$19 per DALY averted (societal perspective). Vaccination with PCV13 is expected to cost around US$920,000 in 2016, and thereafter US$820,000 every year. The programme is likely to reduce direct disease-related costs to MOH by US$440,000 in the first year, increasing to US$510,000 by 2025.ConclusionIntroducing PCV13 as part of Mongolia's national programme appears to be highly cost-effective when compared to no vaccination and cost-saving from a societal perspective at vaccine purchase prices offered through Gavi. Notwithstanding uncertainties around some parameters, cost-effectiveness of PCV introduction for Mongolia remains robust over a range of conservative scenarios. Availability of high-quality national data would improve future economic analyses for vaccine introduction.

Project description:BackgroundWhile prophylactic human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination is considered effective in young girls, it is unclear whether a catch-up vaccination of older girls would be beneficial. We, therefore, aimed to examine the potential health impact of a HPV catch-up vaccination of girls who were too old at the time of vaccine introduction, hence aged 16 and older.MethodsWe systematically searched the literature for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that examined the effect of HPV vaccines on overall mortality, cancer mortality and incidence, high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and higher (CIN2+), vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VaIN) grade 2 and higher lesions (VIN2+ and VaIN2+, respectively) genital warts (condyloma). We considered all lesions and those associated with HPV type(s) included in the vaccines. RCTs reporting on serious adverse events were also eligible. Selected publications were assessed for potential risk of bias, and we ascertained the overall quality of the evidence for each outcome using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). Meta-analyses were performed, assuming both random and fixed effects, to estimate risk ratios (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI), using intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations.ResultsWe included 46 publications reporting on 13 RCTs. Most of the RCTs had a maximum follow-up period of four years. We identified no RCT reporting on the effect of HPV catch vaccination on overall and cancer related mortality, and on cervical cancer incidence. We found a borderline protective effect of a HPV catch-up vaccination on all CIN2+, with a pooled RR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.62-1.02) for a follow-up period of 4 years. A HPV catch-up vaccination was associated with a reduction in VIN2+ and VaIN2+ lesions, and condyloma. No difference in risk of serious adverse events was seen in vaccinated participants versus unvaccinated women (pooled RR of 0.99 (0.91-1.08)).ConclusionsThis systematic review indicates that a HPV catch-up vaccination could be beneficial, however the long-term effect of such a vaccination, and its effect on cervical cancer incidence and mortality is still unclear.

Dataset Information

Public health impact and cost effectiveness of routine and catch-up vaccination of girls and women with a nine-valent HPV vaccine in Japan: a model-based study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Public health impact and cost effectiveness of routine and catch-up vaccination of girls and women with a nine-valent HPV vaccine in Japan: a model-based study.

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