Dataset Information

Early prediction of live birth for assisted reproductive technology patients: a convenient and practical prediction model.

ABSTRACT: Live birth is the most important concern for assisted reproductive technology (ART) patients. Therefore, in the medical reproductive centre, obstetricians often need to answer the following question: "What are the chances that I will have a healthy baby after ART treatment?" To date, our obstetricians have no reference on which to base the answer to this question. Our research aimed to solve this problem by establishing prediction models of live birth for ART patients. Between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2017, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of women undergoing ART treatment at the Reproductive Medicine Centre, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Hunan, China. The birth of at least one live-born baby per initiated cycle or embryo transfer procedure was defined as a live birth, and all other pregnancy outcomes were classified as no live birth. A live birth prediction model was established by stepwise multivariate logistic regression. All eligible subjects were randomly allocated to two groups: group 1 (80% of subjects) for the establishment of the prediction models and group 2 (20% of subjects) for the validation of the established prediction models. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of each prediction model at different cut-off values were calculated. The prediction model of live birth included nine variables. The area under the ROC curve was 0.743 in the validation group. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the established model ranged from 97.9-24.8%, 7.2-96.3%, 44.8-83.8% and 81.7-62.5%, respectively, at different cut-off values. A stable, reliable, convenient, and satisfactory prediction model for live birth by ART patients was established and validated, and this model could be a useful tool for obstetricians to predict the live rate of ART patients. Meanwhile, it is also a reference for obstetricians to create good conditions for infertility patients in preparation for pregnancy.

SUBMITTER: Gao H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7801433 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early prediction of live birth for assisted reproductive technology patients: a convenient and practical prediction model.

Gao Hong H Liu Dong-E DE Li Yumei Y Wu Xinrui X Tan Hongzhuan H

Scientific reports 20210111 1

Live birth is the most important concern for assisted reproductive technology (ART) patients. Therefore, in the medical reproductive centre, obstetricians often need to answer the following question: "What are the chances that I will have a healthy baby after ART treatment?" To date, our obstetricians have no reference on which to base the answer to this question. Our research aimed to solve this problem by establishing prediction models of live birth for ART patients. Between January 1, 2010, a ...[more]

PMID: 33431900

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Project description:Live-birth rates after treatment with assisted reproductive technology have traditionally been reported on a per-cycle basis. For women receiving continued treatment, cumulative success rates are a more important measure.We linked data from cycles of assisted reproductive technology in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System database for the period from 2004 through 2009 to individual women in order to estimate cumulative live-birth rates. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for treatment would not have a live birth; optimal estimates assumed that these women would have live-birth rates similar to those for women continuing treatment.The data were from 246,740 women, with 471,208 cycles and 140,859 live births. Live-birth rates declined with increasing maternal age and increasing cycle number with autologous, but not donor, oocytes. By the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of live-birth rates with autologous oocytes had declined from 63.3% and 74.6%, respectively, for women younger than 31 years of age to 18.6% and 27.8% for those 41 or 42 years of age and to 6.6% and 11.3% for those 43 years of age or older. When donor oocytes were used, the rates were higher than 60% and 80%, respectively, for all ages. Rates were higher with blastocyst embryos (day of transfer, 5 or 6) than with cleavage embryos (day of transfer, 2 or 3). At the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of cumulative live-birth rates were, respectively, 42.7% and 65.3% for transfer of cleavage embryos and 52.4% and 80.7% for transfer of blastocyst embryos when fresh autologous oocytes were used.Our results indicate that live-birth rates approaching natural fecundity can be achieved by means of assisted reproductive technology when there are favorable patient and embryo characteristics. Live-birth rates among older women are lower than those among younger women when autologous oocytes are used but are similar to the rates among young women when donor oocytes are used. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology.).

Project description:BackgroundIt has been consistently shown in several meta-analyses that infants born after ART have an excess of birth defects compared with those after spontaneous conception, however, the prevalence of birth defects among ART offspring in China is incompletely studied. Moreover, it is unclear to what extent the risk of birth defects is associated with parental infertility characteristics, specific ART procedures and twinning.MethodsIn the prospective cohort study, we included women who participated in the cohort, and had pregnancies of at least 20 gestational weeks between August 2016 and May 2019, and followed them until their children reached 1 year of age. Exposures of interest were ART, as well as infertility-related characteristics, certain ART procedures and specific medication usage. The primary outcome was birth defects including both major and minor defects, which we analysed with logistic generalized estimating equations to investigate the association with ART and certain ART characteristics.FindingsA total of 1,825 women with ART-pregnancy and 3,483 women with spontaneous-pregnancy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of any defects was significantly higher among ART-births than their non-ART counterparts at each follow-up, specifically at prenatal screening (2•2% vs. 1•2%), at delivery (4•9% vs. 2•9%), at 6 months (10•4% vs. 5•3%) and 1 year of age (13•9% vs. 7•0%), and the associations between ART and increased risk of birth defects at each follow-up were similarly robust. Among ART-births, GnRH antagonist regimen for ovulation induction in women was associated with an increased risk of birth defects in their offspring after taking into account potential influencing factors (Multivariable model: adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1•47, 1•04-2•07). Additionally, mediation through twinning accounted for 31•1% of the risk of ART-associated birth defects.InterpretationThe results suggest that ART confers an increased risk for birth defects in offspring. The risk is partly attributable to infertility characteristics, certain ovulation induction regimen, and to some extent mediated by twinning. Our findings highlight the importance of long-term follow-up of children conceived via ART for health conditions.FundingNational Key Research and Development Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China and Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province.

Dataset Information

Early prediction of live birth for assisted reproductive technology patients: a convenient and practical prediction model.

Publications

Early prediction of live birth for assisted reproductive technology patients: a convenient and practical prediction model.

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