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Alternating quarantine for sustainable epidemic mitigation.


ABSTRACT: Absent pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing, lock-downs and mobility restrictions remain our prime response in the face of epidemic outbreaks. To ease their potentially devastating socioeconomic consequences, we propose here an alternating quarantine strategy: at every instance, half of the population remains under lockdown while the other half continues to be active - maintaining a routine of weekly succession between activity and quarantine. This regime minimizes infectious interactions, as it allows only half of the population to interact for just half of the time. As a result it provides a dramatic reduction in transmission, comparable to that achieved by a population-wide lockdown, despite sustaining socioeconomic continuity at  ~50% capacity. The weekly alternations also help address the specific challenge of COVID-19, as their periodicity synchronizes with the natural SARS-CoV-2 disease time-scales, allowing to effectively isolate the majority of infected individuals precisely at the time of their peak infection.

SUBMITTER: Meidan D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7801583 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Alternating quarantine for sustainable epidemic mitigation.

Meidan Dror D   Schulmann Nava N   Cohen Reuven R   Haber Simcha S   Yaniv Eyal E   Sarid Ronit R   Barzel Baruch B  

Nature communications 20210111 1


Absent pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing, lock-downs and mobility restrictions remain our prime response in the face of epidemic outbreaks. To ease their potentially devastating socioeconomic consequences, we propose here an alternating quarantine strategy: at every instance, half of the population remains under lockdown while the other half continues to be active - maintaining a routine of weekly succession between activity and quarantine. This regime minimizes infectious interact  ...[more]

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