Dataset Information

Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather.

ABSTRACT: Attribution studies have identified a robust anthropogenic fingerprint in increased 21^st century wildfire risk. However, the risks associated with individual aspects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change remain unknown. Here, we use new climate model large ensembles isolating these influences to show that GHG-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions have been balanced by aerosol-driven cooling throughout the 20th century. This compensation is projected to disappear due to future reductions in aerosol emissions, causing unprecedented increases in extreme fire weather risk in the 21st century as GHGs continue to rise. Changes to temperature and relative humidity drive the largest shifts in extreme fire weather conditions; this is particularly apparent over the Amazon, where GHGs cause a seven-fold increase by 2080. Our results allow increased understanding of the interacting roles of anthropogenic stressors in altering the regional expression of future wildfire risk.

SUBMITTER: Touma D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7801713 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather.

Touma Danielle D Stevenson Samantha S Lehner Flavio F Coats Sloan S

Nature communications 20210111 1

Attribution studies have identified a robust anthropogenic fingerprint in increased 21<sup>st</sup> century wildfire risk. However, the risks associated with individual aspects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change remain unknown. Here, we use new climate model large ensembles isolating these influences to show that GHG-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions have been balanced by aerosol-driven cooling throughou ...[more]

PMID: 33431844

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Project description:BackgroundFood production accounts for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Less environmentally sustainable diets are also often more processed, energy-dense and nutrient-poor. To date, the environmental impact of diets have mostly been based on a limited number of broad food groups.ObjectivesWe link GHG emissions to over 3000 foods, assessing associations between individuals' GHG emissions, their nutrient requirements and their demographic characteristics. We also identify additional information required in dietary assessment to generate more accurate environmental impact data for individual-level diets.MethodsGHG emissions of individual foods, including process stages prior to retail, were added to the UK Composition Of Foods Integrated Dataset (COFID) composition tables and linked to automated online dietary assessment for 212 adults over three 24-hour periods. Variations in GHG emissions were explored by dietary pattern, demographic characteristics and World Health Organization Recommended Nutrient Intakes (RNIs).ResultsGHG emissions estimates were linked to 98% (n = 3233) of food items. Meat explained 32% of diet-related GHG emissions; 15% from drinks; 14% from dairy; and 8% from cakes, biscuits and confectionery. Non-vegetarian diets had GHG emissions 59% (95% CI 18%, 115%) higher than vegetarian. Men had 41% (20%, 64%) higher GHG emissions than women. Individuals meeting RNIs for saturated fats, carbohydrates and sodium had lower GHG emissions compared to those exceeding the RNI.DiscussionPolicies encouraging sustainable diets should focus on plant-based diets. Substituting tea, coffee and alcohol with more sustainable alternatives, whilst reducing less nutritious sweet snacks, presents further opportunities. Healthier diets had lower GHG emissions, demonstrating consistency between planetary and personal health. Further detail could be gained from incorporating brand, production methods, post-retail emissions, country of origin, and additional environmental impact indicators.

Project description:Background and aimColonoscopy is the gold-standard screening test for colorectal cancer. However, it has come under scrutiny for its carbon footprint and contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to other medical procedures. Notwithstanding, screening colonoscopies may have a positive effect on GHG emissions that is unknown. This study estimated the carbon emissions prevented by screening colonoscopies in the U.S.MethodsUsing the reported number of screening colonoscopies performed annually in the U.S. and the absolute risk reduction (ARR) reported in the NorDICC trial, we calculated the expected minimum number of cancer treatment and surveillance visits prevented through screening based on the cancer stage. The average carbon emission averted per mile traveled was computed using the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) GHG equivalencies calculator. The final estimate of carbon emissions averted over a decade by screening colonoscopies performed in one year was determined.Result6.3 million screening colonoscopies performed in one year prevent 1,134,000 colorectal cancers over a ten-year period. Of these, 38∙3% (434,254) are localized, 38∙8% (440,281) are regional, and 22∙9% (259,465) are metastatic disease. The minimum number of post-diagnosis visits prevented is 11 for stage I, ≥ 21 for stage II, ≥25 for stage III, and ≥ 20 for stage IV disease, comprised of diagnostic, surgical evaluation, chemotherapy, and surveillance visits. The total number of visits prevented by screening is 2,388,397 for stage I, 5,254,421 for stage II, 13,120,369 for stage III, and 9,210,972 for stage IV disease. Approximately 395 million miles of travel and 158,263 metric tons of CO2, equivalent to 177 million pounds of coal burned, 19 billion smartphones charged, or 18 million gallons of gasoline consumed, were saved over ten years through screening.ConclusionColorectal cancer screening decreases cancer-related GHG emissions and minimizes the environmental impact of cancer treatment.

Dataset Information

Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather.

Publications

Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather.

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