Dataset Information

Multiple life-stage inbreeding depression impacts demography and extinction risk in an extinct-in-the-wild species.

ABSTRACT: Inbreeding can depress individuals' fitness traits and reduce population viability. However, studies that directly translate inbreeding depression on fitness traits into consequences for population viability, and further, into consequences for management choices, are lacking. Here, we estimated impacts of inbreeding depression (B, lethal equivalents) across life-history stages for an extinct-in-the-wild species, the sihek (Guam kingfisher, Todiramphus cinnamominus). We then projected population growth under different management alternatives with our B estimates incorporated, as well as without inbreeding depression (B?=?0) or with a conventional default B. We found that inbreeding depression severely impacted multiple life-history stages, and directly translated into an effect on population viability under management alternatives. Simulations including our B estimates indicated rapid population decline, whereas projections without inbreeding depression or with default B suggested very gradual population decline. Further, our results demonstrate that incorporation of B across life-history stages can influence management decisions, as projections with our B estimates suggested a need to switch to increased breeding management to avoid species extinction and support wild releases. Our results demonstrate that magnitude of B across life-history stages can translate into demographic consequences, such that incorporation of multiple life-stage B into population models can be important for informed conservation management decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Trask AE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7804286 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multiple life-stage inbreeding depression impacts demography and extinction risk in an extinct-in-the-wild species.

Trask A E AE Ferrie G M GM Wang J J Newland S S Canessa S S Moehrenschlager A A Laut M M Duenas L Barnhart LB Ewen J G JG

Scientific reports 20210112 1

Inbreeding can depress individuals' fitness traits and reduce population viability. However, studies that directly translate inbreeding depression on fitness traits into consequences for population viability, and further, into consequences for management choices, are lacking. Here, we estimated impacts of inbreeding depression (B, lethal equivalents) across life-history stages for an extinct-in-the-wild species, the sihek (Guam kingfisher, Todiramphus cinnamominus). We then projected population ...[more]

PMID: 33436770

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Project description:Inbreeding depression (ID) is a fundamental selective pressure that shapes mating systems and population genetic structures in plants. Although it has been shown that ID varies over the life stages of shorter-lived plants, less is known about how the fitness effects of inbreeding vary across life stages in long-lived species. We conducted a literature survey in the Pinaceae, a tree family known to harbour some of the highest mutational loads ever reported. Using a meta-regression model, we investigated distributions of inbreeding depression over life stages, adjusting for effects of inbreeding levels and the genetic differentiation of populations within species. The final dataset contained 147 estimates of ID across life stages from 41 studies. 44 Fst estimates were collected from 40 peer-reviewed studies for the 18 species to aid genetic differentiation modelling. Partitioning species into fragmented and well-connected groups using Fst resulted in the best way (i.e. trade-off between high goodness-of-fit of the model to the data and reduced model complexity) to incorporate genetic connectivity in the meta-regression analysis. Inclusion of a life stage term and its interaction with the inbreeding coefficient (F) dramatically increased model precision. We observed that the correlation between ID and F was significant at the earliest life stage. Although partitioning of species populations into fragmented and well-connected groups explained little of the between-study heterogeneity, the inclusion of an interaction between life stage and population differentiation revealed that populations with fragmented distributions suffered lower inbreeding depression at early embryonic stages than species with well-connected populations. There was no evidence for increased ID in late life stages in well-connected populations, although ID tended to increase across life stages in the fragmented group. These findings suggest that life stage data should be included in inbreeding depression studies and that inbreeding needs to be managed over life stages in commercial populations of long-lived plants.

Project description:Extinction models vary in the information they require, the simplest considering the rate of certain sightings only. More complicated methods include uncertain sightings and allow for variation in the reliability of uncertain sightings. Generally extinction models require expert opinion, either as a prior belief that a species is extinct, or to establish the quality of a sighting record, or both. Is this subjectivity necessary? We present two models to explore whether the individual quality of sightings, judged by experts, is strongly informative of the probability of extinction: the 'quality breakpoint method' and the 'quality as variance method'. For the first method we use the Barbary lion as an exemplar. For the second method we use the Barbary lion, Alaotra grebe, Jamaican petrel and Pohnpei starling as exemplars. The 'quality breakpoint method' uses certain and uncertain sighting records, and the quality of uncertain records, to establish whether a change point in the rate of sightings can be established using a simultaneous Bayesian optimisation with a non-informative prior. For the Barbary lion, there is a change in subjective quality of sightings around 1930. Unexpectedly sighting quality increases after this date. This suggests that including quality scores from experts can lead to irregular effects and may not offer reliable results. As an alternative, we use quality as a measure of variance around the sightings, not a change in quality. This leads to predictions with larger standard deviations, however the results remain consistent across any prior belief of extinction. Nonetheless, replacing actual quality scores with random quality scores showed little difference, inferring that the quality scores from experts are superfluous. Therefore, we deem the expensive process of obtaining pooled expert estimates as unnecessary, and even when used we recommend that sighting data should have minimal input from experts in terms of assessing the sighting quality at a fine scale. Rather, sightings should be classed as certain or uncertain, using a framework that is as independent of human bias as possible.

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Dataset Information

Multiple life-stage inbreeding depression impacts demography and extinction risk in an extinct-in-the-wild species.

Publications

Multiple life-stage inbreeding depression impacts demography and extinction risk in an extinct-in-the-wild species.

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