Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography
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ABSTRACT: Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
SUBMITTER: Dao T
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7806256 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:PurposeAccording to a few recent studies, the clinical phenotype of Graves' disease (GD) at onset is becoming milder in recent years, in terms of prevalence and severity of hyperthyroidism, goiter and overt eye disease. The aim of this study was to assess the change in GD phenotype across the late twentieth and the early twenty-first centuries.Materials and methodsWe carried out a systematic search of studies published between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2017 describing naïve GD patients at diagnosis. We collected epidemiological, clinical, biochemical and serological data reported in the selected studies, and (1) conducted a single-arm meta-analysis to compare clinical and biochemical characteristics of naïve GD patients before and after year 2000 and (2) performed a meta-regression to identify the trend of the observed clinical presentations.ResultsEighty selected articles were related to the period before the year 2000, 30 to the years 2000-2017. According to demographics, the two defined populations were homogeneous at meta-analysis: overall estimated female prevalence was 81% [95% CI 79-82], mean estimated age of the entire population was 39.8 years [95% CI 38.4-41.1], with no significant differences between pre- and post-2000 groups (p > 0.05). The overall estimated prevalence of smokers was 40% [95% CI 33-46], with no significant difference between the two groups (p > 0.05). Mean estimated free thyroxine (FT4) and free triiodothyronine (FT3) levels at diagnosis were higher in the pre-2000 group: 4.7 ng/dl [95% CI 4.5-4.9] for FT4 and 14.2 pg/ml [95% CI 13.3-15.1] for FT3, as compared to the post-2000 group: 3.9 ng/dl [95% CI 3.6-4.2] for FT4 and 12.1 pg/ml [95% CI 11.0-13.3] for FT3 (all p < 0.01). Goiter estimated prevalence was higher in the pre-2000 group, 87% [95% CI 84-90], than in the post-2000 group, 56% [95% CI 45-67]. Estimated prevalence for Graves' Orbitopathy (GO) was 34% [95% CI 27-41] in the pre-2000 group and 25% [95% CI 19-30] in the post-2000 group (p = 0.03). Accordingly, meta-regression adjusted for covariates showed an average annual reduction of FT4 (- 0.040 ± 0.008 ng/dl, p < 0.0001), FT3 (- 0.316 ± 0.019 pg/ml, p < 0.0001), goiter prevalence (- 0.023 ± 0.008%, p = 0.006), and goiter size (- 0.560 ± 0.031 ml, p < 0.0001).ConclusionsOur meta-analysis and meta-regression confirmed that GD phenotype at diagnosis is nowadays milder than in the past; we hypothesize that conceivable factors involved in this change are iodoprophylaxis, worldwide decrease in smoking habits, larger use of contraceptive pill and micronutrient supplementation, as well as earlier diagnosis and management.
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Project description:Objective:The authors' objective was to document the effects of evolving veterinary accreditation standards on the development of currently existing accredited US and Canadian veterinary school libraries in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Methods:We gathered historical standards that major veterinary accreditation agencies developed with respect to libraries and library services. Historical background on college libraries, their facilities, services, and personnel via surveys, literature searches, and archival documents was also collected. We then correlated the evolving standards with each library's development. Results:There was a marked correlation between the prevailing accreditation standards and library development, particularly during the post-World War II era and through the mid-1980s. These impacts-which included new and separate facilities, hiring of professional librarians, and additional open hours-affected not only the twenty new developing veterinary schools, but also the libraries of the preexisting colleges. Conclusions:Professional veterinary accrediting standards were an important influence on the evolution of veterinary school libraries, particularly during the years of major growth in the number of new veterinary colleges in the United States and Canada. In the 1990s and beyond, both libraries and accreditation standards continue to evolve in response to changes in technology, economics, publishing methods, and more. This latter is a story yet to be told.
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Project description:It remains uncertain why most infectious disease mortalities disappeared before modern medical interventions. Historical epidemiology using prospectively collected U.S. Army data from the Civil War (1860-1861), Spanish-American War (1898-1899), and First World War (1917-1918) suggests that epidemiological isolation was a major mortality risk factor for soldiers. Morbidity and mortality due to common infections decreased progressively from 1860 to 1918, except for influenza during the 1918 pandemic. Adult measles or mumps infections are indicative of isolated rural populations and correlated with disease mortality by U.S. state. Experiencing infections before adulthood may equip the immune system to better resist infections and decrease mortality rates.
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Project description:Biological invasions have emerged as an eminent feature of global change, with substantial impacts on the environment and human livelihoods. Current research demonstrates that the numbers and impacts of alien species are rising unabatedly. At the same time, we lack a thorough understanding of potential future trajectories for the decades to come. With the recent establishment of comprehensive global databases, it is, for the first time, feasible to develop and quantify future scenarios of biological invasions. Therefore, we propose a conceptual framework for how to develop alien species scenarios for the twenty-first century and how to identify relevant steps and challenges along the way. The concept will be important to inform research, policy, stakeholders, and the general public. Furthermore, we call for the scientific community to join forces and to operationalize the framework for scenarios and models of biological invasions to develop an important baseline for understanding and managing future biological invasions.
| S-EPMC6739238 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Energy and water limitations of tree growth remain insufficiently understood at large spatiotemporal scales, hindering model representation of interannual or longer-term ecosystem processes. By assessing and statistically scaling the climatic drivers from 2710 tree-ring sites, we identified the boreal and temperate land areas where tree growth during 1930-1960 CE responded positively to temperature (20.8 ± 3.7 Mio km2; 25.9 ± 4.6%), precipitation (77.5 ± 3.3 Mio km2; 96.4 ± 4.1%), and other parameters. The spatial manifestation of this climate response is determined by latitudinal and altitudinal temperature gradients, indicating that warming leads to geographic shifts in growth limitations. We observed a significant (P < 0.001) decrease in temperature response at cold-dry sites between 1930-1960 and 1960-1990 CE, and the total temperature-limited area shrunk by -8.7 ± 0.6 Mio km2. Simultaneously, trees became more limited by atmospheric water demand almost worldwide. These changes occurred under mild warming, and we expect that continued climate change will trigger a major redistribution in growth responses to climate.
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Project description:The northern fringe area of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) between arid and semiarid regions is a fragile eco-environment zone and ecological transition zone, and it is highly sensitive to climate change. Predicting the future migration of the northern boundary of the EASM is important for understanding future East Asian climate change and formulating of decisions on ecological protection and economic development in arid and semiarid regions. The reanalysis dataset and simulations of 23 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to investigate the response of the boundary of the ESAM to the global warming. The multi-model ensemble showed a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary during the near-term (2020–2060) and late-term (2061–2099) of the twenty-first century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The northern boundary migrated northwestward by 23–28 and 74–76 km in the near-term and late-term respectively, under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 and by ~ 44 km and ~ 107 km respectively during the near-term and late-term under SSP5-8.5. During the twenty-first century, under various SSPs, the surface of the East Asian subcontinent warmed more than the ocean, thereby increasing the contrast of near-surface temperature and sea level pressure in summer between the East Asian subcontinent and the surrounding oceans. In turn, the intensified land–sea thermal contrast reinforced the EASM meridional circulation and thus transported more moisture from the Indian Ocean into northern China. Additionally, a poleward migration and weakening of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet would also favor an increase in precipitation, eventually caused a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary. The results suggest that the arid and semiarid ecotone will become wetter, which could dramatically improve the eco-environment in the future.
| S-EPMC9203458 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.
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Project description:The most recent "grand minimum" of solar activity, the Maunder minimum (MM, 1650-1710), is of great interest both for understanding the solar dynamo and providing insight into possible future heliospheric conditions. Here, we use nearly 30 years of output from a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona to calibrate heliospheric reconstructions based solely on sunspot observations. Using these empirical relations, we produce the first quantitative estimate of global solar wind variations over the last 400 years. Relative to the modern era, the MM shows a factor 2 reduction in near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength and solar wind speed, and up to a factor 4 increase in solar wind Mach number. Thus solar wind energy input into the Earth's magnetosphere was reduced, resulting in a more Jupiter-like system, in agreement with the dearth of auroral reports from the time. The global heliosphere was both smaller and more symmetric under MM conditions, which has implications for the interpretation of cosmogenic radionuclide data and resulting total solar irradiance estimates during grand minima.
| S-EPMC5282500 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundStrong growth of interdisciplinary sciences might find exceptional example in academic health economics. We decided to observe the quantitative output in this science since the beginning of the twenty-first century.MethodsElectronic search of the published literature was conducted in four different databases: one medical database-MEDLINE/PubMed, two general databases-Scopus/Elsevier and Web of Science (WoS), and one specialized health economic database-NHS Economic Evaluation Database (EED). The applied combination of key words was carefully chosen to cover the most commonly used terms in titles of publications dealing with conceptual areas of health economics. All bibliographic units were taken into account.ResultsWithin the time horizon from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2016, without language or limitations on bibliographic unit types, we identified an output ranging approximately from 60,345 to 88,246 records with applied search strategy in MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus/Elsevier, and WoS. In NHS EED, we detected 14,761 records of economic evaluations of health interventions during the period in which database was maintained and regularly updated. With slightly more than one-third of the identified records, USA clearly dominates in this field. United Kingdom takes a strong second place with about 12% of identified records. Consistently, USA and UK universities are the most frequent among the top 15 affiliations/organizations of the authors of the identified records. Authors from Harvard University contributed to the largest number of the identified records.ConclusionThere is a clear evidence of both the upward stream of blossoming in health economics publications and its acceleration. Based on this bibliographic data set, it is difficult to distinguish the actual impact growth of this output provided dominantly by academia with modest contribution by pharmaceutical/medicinal device industry and diverse national government-based agencies. Further insight into the citation track record of these individual publications could provide helpful upgrade and a perspective on ongoing development.
| S-EPMC5554506 | biostudies-literature
Project description:UnlabelledThe open-data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open-data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world-wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction. Matrix population models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, an open-data online repository, which in its version 1.0.0 contains data on 345 species world-wide, from 402 studies with a total of 1625 population projection matrices. COMADRE also contains ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, taxonomy, biogeography, etc.) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from its MPMs. We provide R code to some of these examples.SynthesisWe introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, a resource for animal demography. Its open-data nature, together with its ancillary information, will facilitate comparative analysis, as will the growing availability of databases focusing on other aspects of the rich animal diversity, and tools to query and combine them. Through future frequent updates of COMADRE, and its integration with other online resources, we encourage animal ecologists to tackle global ecological and evolutionary questions with unprecedented sample size.
| S-EPMC4819704 | biostudies-literature