Dataset Information

The potential for overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis because of blood pressure variability: a comparison of the 2017 ACC/AHA, 2018 ESC/ESH and 2019 NICE hypertension guidelines.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To estimate the extent that BP measurement variability may drive over- and underdiagnosis of 'hypertension' when measurements are made according to current guidelines.

Methods

Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and empirical estimates of within-person variability, we simulated annual SBP measurement sets for 1?000?000 patients over 5 years. For each measurement set, we used an average of multiple readings, as recommended by guidelines.

Results

The mean true SBP for the simulated population was 118.8?mmHg with a standard deviation of 17.5?mmHg. The proportion overdiagnosed with 'hypertension' after five sets of office or nonoffice measurements using the 2017 American College of Cardiology guideline was 3-5% for people with a true SBP less than 120?mmHg, and 65-72% for people with a true SBP 120-130?mmHg. These proportions were less than 1% and 14-33% using the 2018 European Society of Hypertension and 2019 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (true SBP <120 and 120-130?mmHg, respectively). The proportion underdiagnosed with 'hypertension' was less than 3% for people with true SBP at least 140?mmHg after one set of office or nonoffice measurements using the 2017 American College of Cardiology guideline, and less than 18% using the other two guidelines.

Conclusion

More people are at risk of overdiagnosis under the 2017 American College of Cardiology guideline than the other two guidelines, even if nonoffice measurements are used. Making clinical decisions about cardiovascular prediction based primarily on absolute risk, minimizes the impact of blood pressure variability on overdiagnosis.

SUBMITTER: Bell K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7810411 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The potential for overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis because of blood pressure variability: a comparison of the 2017 ACC/AHA, 2018 ESC/ESH and 2019 NICE hypertension guidelines.

Bell Katy K Doust Jenny J McGeechan Kevin K Horvath Andrea Rita AR Barratt Alexandra A Hayen Andrew A Semsarian Christopher C Irwig Les L

Journal of hypertension 20210201 2

<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the extent that BP measurement variability may drive over- and underdiagnosis of 'hypertension' when measurements are made according to current guidelines.<h4>Methods</h4>Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and empirical estimates of within-person variability, we simulated annual SBP measurement sets for 1 000 000 patients over 5 years. For each measurement set, we used an average of multiple readings, as recommended by guidelines.<h ...[more]

PMID: 32773652

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Project description:The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline defines hypertension as a blood pressure ≥130/80 mm Hg, whereas the 2018 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and 2019 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines use a ≥140/90 mm Hg threshold. Our objective was to study the associations between isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), diagnosed using these 2 blood pressure thresholds, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a large cohort of UK adults. We analyzed data from UK Biobank, which enrolled participants between 2006 and 2010 with follow-up through March 2019. We excluded persons with systolic hypertension or baseline CVD. We defined incident CVD as a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. We used Cox regression to quantify associations between IDH and CVD, as well as the individual outcomes included in the composite outcome. We studied 151 831 participants with normal systolic blood pressure (mean age 54 years, 40% male). Overall, 24.5% had IDH by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association definition compared with 6% by the ESC/NICE definition. Compared with normal diastolic blood pressure, IDH by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association definition was not significantly associated with CVD risk (hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.98-1.18]) whereas IDH by the ESC/NICE definition was significantly associated with a modest increase in CVD (hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.04-1.29]). Similar results were found by sex and among participants not taking baseline antihypertensives. Furthermore, neither IDH definition was associated with the individual outcomes of nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke. In conclusion, the proportion of UK Biobank participants with IDH was significantly higher by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association definition compared with the ESC/NICE definitions; however, only the ESC/NICE definition was statistically associated with increased CVD risk.

Project description:BackgroundFew studies investigated the concordance in hypertension status and antihypertensive treatment recommendations between the 2018 Chinese Hypertension League (CHL) guidelines and the 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines and assessed the change of premature mortality risk with hypertension defined by the ACC/AHA guidelines.MethodsWe used the baseline data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to estimate the population impact on hypertension management between CHL and ACC/AHA guidelines. Mortality risk from hypertension was estimated using the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals(CIs).ResultsAmong 13,704 participants analyzed from the nationally representative data of CHARLS, 42.64% (95% CI: 40.35, 44.96) of Chinese adults were diagnosed by both CHL and ACC/AHA guidelines. 41.25% (39.17, 43.36) did not have hypertension according to either guideline. Overall, the concordance in hypertension status was 83.89% (81.69, 85.57). A high percentage of agreement was also found for recommendation to initiate treatment among untreated subjects (87.62% [86.67, 88.51]) and blood pressure (BP) above the goal among treated subjects (71.68% [68.16, 74.95]). Among 23,063 adults from CHNS, subjects with hypertension by CHL had a higher risk of premature mortality (1.75 [1.50, 2.04]) compared with those without hypertension. The association diminished for hypertension by ACC/AHA (1.46 [1.07, 1.30]). Moreover, the excess risk was not significant for the newly defined Grade 1 hypertension by ACC/AHA (1.15 [0.95, 1.38]) when compared with BP <120/80 mmHg. This contrasted with the estimate from CHL (1.54 [1.25, 1.89]). The same pattern was observed for total mortality.ConclusionsIf ACC/AHA guidelines were adopted, a high degree of concordance in hypertension status and initiation of antihypertensive treatment was found with CHL guidelines. However, the mortality risk with hypertension was reduced with a non-significant risk for Grade 1 hypertension defined by the ACC/AHA.

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Dataset Information

The potential for overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis because of blood pressure variability: a comparison of the 2017 ACC/AHA, 2018 ESC/ESH and 2019 NICE hypertension guidelines.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The potential for overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis because of blood pressure variability: a comparison of the 2017 ACC/AHA, 2018 ESC/ESH and 2019 NICE hypertension guidelines.

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