Dataset Information

Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking in New York City: An Evaluation Using Reportable Disease Data From Early in the Pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Nowcasting approaches enhance the utility of reportable disease data for trend monitoring by correcting for delays, but implementation details affect accuracy.

Objective

To support real-time COVID-19 situational awareness, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene used nowcasting to account for testing and reporting delays. We conducted an evaluation to determine which implementation details would yield the most accurate estimated case counts.

Methods

A time-correlated Bayesian approach called Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing (NobBS) was applied in real time to line lists of reportable disease surveillance data, accounting for the delay from diagnosis to reporting and the shape of the epidemic curve. We retrospectively evaluated nowcasting performance for confirmed case counts among residents diagnosed during the period from March to May 2020, a period when the median reporting delay was 2 days.

Results

Nowcasts with a 2-week moving window and a negative binomial distribution had lower mean absolute error, lower relative root mean square error, and higher 95% prediction interval coverage than nowcasts conducted with a 3-week moving window or with a Poisson distribution. Nowcasts conducted toward the end of the week outperformed nowcasts performed earlier in the week, given fewer patients diagnosed on weekends and lack of day-of-week adjustments. When estimating case counts for weekdays only, metrics were similar across days when the nowcasts were conducted, with Mondays having the lowest mean absolute error of 183 cases in the context of an average daily weekday case count of 2914.

Conclusions

Nowcasting using NobBS can effectively support COVID-19 trend monitoring. Accounting for overdispersion, shortening the moving window, and suppressing diagnoses on weekends-when fewer patients submitted specimens for testing-improved the accuracy of estimated case counts. Nowcasting ensured that recent decreases in observed case counts were not overinterpreted as true declines and supported officials in anticipating the magnitude and timing of hospitalizations and deaths and allocating resources geographically.

SUBMITTER: Greene SK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7812916 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking in New York City: An Evaluation Using Reportable Disease Data From Early in the Pandemic.

Greene Sharon K SK McGough Sarah F SF Culp Gretchen M GM Graf Laura E LE Lipsitch Marc M Menzies Nicolas A NA Kahn Rebecca R

JMIR public health and surveillance 20210115 1

<h4>Background</h4>Nowcasting approaches enhance the utility of reportable disease data for trend monitoring by correcting for delays, but implementation details affect accuracy.<h4>Objective</h4>To support real-time COVID-19 situational awareness, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene used nowcasting to account for testing and reporting delays. We conducted an evaluation to determine which implementation details would yield the most accurate estimated case counts.<h4>Methods ...[more]

PMID: 33406053

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveDuring theCOVID-19 pandemic, many clinicians increased provision of telemedicine services. This study describes patient experiences with telemedicine for contraceptive counseling during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City.Study designThis is a mixed-methods study which includes a web-based or phone survey and in-depth phone interviews with patients who had telemedicine visits for contraception.ResultsA total of 169 patients had eligible telemedicine visits between April 1 and June 30, 2020. Of these, 86 (51%) responded to the survey, and 23 (14%) participated in the interviews. We found that 86% of survey respondents were very satisfied with the telemedicine visit, and 63% said it completely met their needs. A majority (73%) strongly agreed that these visits should be maintained after the COVID-19 pandemic, and half (51%) would be very likely to choose them over in-person visits. In-depth interviews highlighted the convenience of telemedicine, especially for those with work or parenting responsibilities. Although some patients had in-person visits after telehealth, many appreciated the counseling they received remotely, and found the subsequent in-person visits more efficient. Patients identified visits that do not require physical exams as ideal visits for telehealth, and some hoped that all or most of their future visits would be telehealth visits. Many patients (43%) expressed a preference for phone over video visits.ConclusionsPatients reported an overall positive experience with telemedicine visits for contraceptive counseling during the COVID-19 pandemic. They appreciated the convenience of telemedicine visits and valued the virtual counseling experience.ImplicationsHealth care providers who initiated or expanded telemedicine services for contraceptive counseling during the COVID-19 pandemic should consider continuing to offer them after the pandemic. At the policy level, these findings favor expanding access to telemedicine and providing reimbursement for virtual visits, including telephone visits.

Project description:Mercury is a toxic metal that can be measured in human blood and urine. Population-based biomonitoring from 2004 guided New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) efforts to reduce exposures by educating the public about risks and benefits of fish consumption-a predominant source of exposure in the general population-and removing mercury-containing skin-lightening creams and other consumer products from the marketplace. We describe changes in exposures over the past decade in relation to these local public health actions and in the context of national changes by comparing mercury concentrations measured in blood (1201 specimens) and urine (1408 specimens) from the NYC Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NYC HANES) 2013-2014 with measurements from NYC HANES 2004 and National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2003-2004 and 2013-2014. We found that NYC adult blood and urine geometric mean mercury concentrations decreased 46% and 45%, respectively. Adult New Yorkers with blood mercury concentration ??5 ?g/L (the New York State reportable level) declined from 24.8% (95% CL?=?22.2%, 27.7%) to 12.0% (95% CL?=?10.1%, 14.3%). The decline in blood mercury in NYC was greater than the national decline, while the decline in urine mercury was similar. As in 2004, Asian New Yorkers had higher blood mercury concentrations than other racial/ethnic groups. Foreign-born adults of East or Southeast Asian origin had the highest prevalence of reportable levels (29.7%; 95% CL?=?21.0%, 40.1%) across sociodemographic groups, and Asians generally were the most frequent fish consumers, eating on average 11 fish meals in the past month compared with 7 among other groups (p?<?0.001). Fish consumption patterns were similar over time, and fish continues to be consumed more frequently in NYC than nationwide (24.7% of NYC adults ate fish ten or more times in the past 30 days vs. 14.7% nationally, p?<?0.001). The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that blood mercury levels have declined in part because of local and national efforts to promote consumption of lower mercury fish. Local NYC efforts may have accelerated the reduction in exposure. Having "silver-colored fillings" on five or more teeth was associated with the highest 95th percentile for urine mercury (4.06 ?g/L; 95% CL?=?3.1, 5.9). An estimated 5.5% of the adult population (95% CL?=?4.3%, 7.0%) reported using a skin-lightening cream in the past 30 days, but there was little evidence that use was associated with elevated urine mercury in 2013-14.

Dataset Information

Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking in New York City: An Evaluation Using Reportable Disease Data From Early in the Pandemic.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking in New York City: An Evaluation Using Reportable Disease Data From Early in the Pandemic.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets