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A parsimonious approach for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation.

ABSTRACT: Raw data on the number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of COVID-19 incidence. An important issue is whether this pattern is a consequence of environmental heterogeneities, such as the climatic conditions, during the course of the outbreak. Another fundamental issue is to understand the spatial spreading of COVID-19. To address these questions, we consider four candidate epidemiological models with varying complexity in terms of initial conditions, contact rates and non-local transmissions, and we fit them to French mortality data with a mixed probabilistic-ODE approach. Using statistical criteria, we select the model with non-local transmission corresponding to a diffusion on the graph of counties that depends on the geographic proximity, with time-dependent contact rate and spatially constant parameters. This suggests that in a geographically middle size centralized country such as France, once the epidemic is established, the effect of global processes such as restriction policies and sanitary measures overwhelms the effect of local factors. Additionally, this approach reveals the latent epidemiological dynamics including the local level of immunity, and allows us to evaluate the role of non-local interactions on the future spread of the disease.

SUBMITTER: Roques L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7813252 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A parsimonious approach for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation.

Roques L L Bonnefon O O Baudrot V V Soubeyrand S S Berestycki H H

Royal Society open science 20201215 12

Raw data on the number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of COVID-19 incidence. An important issue is whether this pattern is a consequence of environmental heterogeneities, such as the climatic conditions, during the course of the outbreak. Another fundamental issue is to understand the spatial spreading of COVID-19. To address these questions, we consider four candidate epidemiological models with varying complexity in terms of initial conditions ...[more]

PMID: 33489282

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Project description:Simultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and other pathogens. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase a smaller fraction of cases' contacts can be traced, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between increasing cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using deterministic and stochastic compartmental models of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increased sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt initially increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections may be more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy decreased sharply with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases. They also highlight the synergistic value of high capacity, easy access testing and rapid turn-around of testing results, and outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic cases to be tested immediately after symptom onset.

Dataset Information

A parsimonious approach for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation.

Publications

A parsimonious approach for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation.

Similar Datasets

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