International risk of the new variant COVID-19 importations originating in the United Kingdom.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Du Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7814837 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:A fast-spreading severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We analyzed data from 15 countries and estimated that the chance that this variant was imported into these countries by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7 is >50%.
| S-EPMC8084518 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Omicron, a fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern reported to the World Health Organization on November 24, 2021, has raised international alarm. We estimated there is at least 50% chance that Omicron had been introduced by travelers from South Africa into all of the 30 countries studied by November 27, 2021.
| S-EPMC8669863 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic on 11 March 2020; the United Kingdom (UK) implemented quarantine measures shortly afterward, resulting in rapid changes in how owners managed and interacted with their horses. This study provides a rapid analysis of the initial impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the management of UK leisure and competition horses. A 17 question online survey was distributed via equestrian social media sites to ascertain the impact of COVID-19 on horse and yard management and on human-horse interactions. Frequency analysis combined with Chi-squared and thematic analyses identified the impact of COVID-19 on UK horse owners. Major changes within horse management and horse-human interactions were reported for the majority of horse owners (>65%), regardless of the establishment type or region. Social distancing and visiting restrictions were implemented at most yards, but nearly half were not providing hand sanitization or disinfection protocols for the shared areas/equipment to prevent cross-contamination between users. The financial impact of the pandemic combined with restricted access to veterinary professionals resulted in owners expressing concerns that horse health and welfare may be compromised as a result. Horse owners also felt that the reduced opportunities for horse-human interactions were negatively affecting their mental health and wellbeing.
| S-EPMC7600939 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019 has caused widespread transmission around the world. As new epicentres in Europe and America have arisen, of particular concern is the increased number of imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Africa, where the impact of the pandemic could be more severe. We aim to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases imported from 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to each African country, as well as the probability of reaching 10,000 cases in total by the end of March, April, May, and June following viral introduction.MethodsWe used the reported number of cases imported from the 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to Singapore, as well as flight data, to estimate the number of imported cases in each African country. Under the assumption that Singapore has detected all the imported cases, the estimates for Africa were thus conservative. We then propagated the uncertainty in the imported case count estimates to simulate the onward spread of the virus, until 10,000 cases are reached or the end of June, whichever is earlier. Specifically, 1,000 simulations were run separately under four different combinations of parameter values to test the sensitivity of our results.ResultsWe estimated Morocco, Algeria, South Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, and Nigeria as having the largest number of COVID-19 cases imported from the 12 major epicentres. Based on our 1,000 simulation runs, Morocco and Algeria's estimated probability of reaching 10,000 cases by end of March was close to 100% under all scenarios. In particular, we identified countries with less than 1,000 cases in total reported by end of June whilst the estimated probability of reaching 10,000 cases by then was higher than 50% even under the most optimistic scenario.ConclusionsOur study highlights particular countries that are likely to reach (or have reached) 10,000 cases far earlier than the reported data suggest, calling for the prioritization of resources to mitigate the further spread of the epidemic.
| S-EPMC7424562 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility.MethodsHere we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021.ResultsWe find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination.ConclusionsWhile questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.
| S-EPMC8643186 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is limited prior investigation of the combined influence of personal and community-level socioeconomic factors on racial/ethnic disparities in individual risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).MethodsWe performed a cross-sectional analysis nested within a prospective cohort of 2,102,364 participants from March 29, 2020 in the United States (US) and March 24, 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK) through December 02, 2020 via the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application. We examined the contribution of community-level deprivation using the Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) to observe racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04331509.FindingsCompared with non-Hispanic White participants, the risk for a positive COVID-19 test was increased in the US for non-Hispanic Black (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.47) and Hispanic participants (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.33-1.52) and in the UK for Black (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34), South Asian (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30-1.49), and Middle Eastern participants (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18-1.61). This elevated risk was associated with living in more deprived communities according to the NDI/IMD. After accounting for downstream mediators of COVID-19 risk, community-level deprivation still mediated 16.6% and 7.7% of the excess risk in Black compared to White participants in the US and the UK, respectively.InterpretationOur results illustrate the critical role of social determinants of health in the disproportionate COVID-19 risk experienced by racial and ethnic minorities.
| S-EPMC8285255 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in December 2019, presumed from the city of Wuhan, Hubei province in China, and the subsequent declaration of the disease as a pandemic by the World Health Organization as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2020, had a significant impact on health care systems globally. Each country responded to this disease in different ways, however this was done broadly by fortifying and prioritizing health care provision as well as introducing social lockdown aiming to contain the infection and minimizing the risk of transmission. In the United Kingdom, a lockdown was introduced by the government on March 23, 2020 and all health care services were focussed to challenge the impact of COVID-19. To do so, the United Kingdom National Health Service had to undergo widespread service reconfigurations and the so-called "Nightingale Hospitals" were created de novo to bolster bed provision, and industries were asked to direct efforts to the production of ventilators. A government-led public health campaign was publicized under the slogan of: "Stay home, Protect the NHS (National Health Service), Save lives." The approach had a significant impact on the delivery of all surgical services but particularly cardiac surgery with its inherent critical care bed capacity. This paper describes the impact on provision for elective and emergency cardiac surgery in the United Kingdom, with a focus on aortovascular disease. We describe our aortovascular activity and outcomes during the period of UK lockdown and present a patient survey of attitudes to aortic surgery during COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7537188 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo identify the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on UK herbal medicine practice and how herbal medicine practitioners are supporting people with COVID-19.DesignMixed-methods e-survey.MethodsThe survey link was distributed through professional associations and social media. Quantitative data were descriptively summarised and qualitative data were analysed using content analysis.ResultsResults from 59 responses indicated a profound effect of the pandemic on herbal medicine practice, with a move to remote working and a reduction in client numbers. Practitioners reported prescribing a wide range of medicinal plants, chiefly Glycyrrhiza glabra L. and Echinacea spp. alongside providing information and advice. Few reported inter-professional collaboration.ConclusionsHerbal practitioners need to build on current collaborations, research and experience to develop consistent approaches to support people with mild-moderate COVID-19 symptoms. More systematic exploration of herbal medicine practice during and as a consequence of the pandemic is needed.What is already known about the topic• The COVID-19 pandemic has had a large impact on all types of healthcare• The impact on herbal medicine practice is unclear.What this paper adds• The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially affected UK herbal medicine practice• A wide range of medicinal plants are currently used by herbal practitioners to support people with COVID-19• Herbal practitioners need to develop consistent holistic approaches to support people with mild-moderate symptoms of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8452456 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper takes advantage of a unique dataset with a prospectively longitudinal, nationally representative sample (n = 5,178) that began in 1958 and has information on COVID-19 health status in 2020 to examine the effect of Big Five personality traits on compliance with social distancing requirements and contraction of COVID-19. The results show some consistency with epidemiological recommendations (Conscientious individuals were more likely to maintain social distance and less likely to contract COVID-19; men were less likely to comply and more likely to contract) but more inconsistency (Agreeable individuals were more likely to comply with social distancing requirements yet more likely to contract COVID-19; Open and Neurotic individuals were no less likely to comply yet more likely to contract COVID-19). The results highlight the importance of Big Five personality factors for behaviour in the global pandemic and may call into question the universal effectiveness of social distancing requirements for all individuals. However, the small number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the early months of the pandemic requires caution in interpretation of the results. Please refer to the Supplementary Material section to find this article's Community and Social Impact Statement.
| S-EPMC8653120 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has potentially caused indirect harm to patients with other conditions via reduced access to health care services. We aimed to describe the impact of the initial wave of the pandemic on admissions, care quality, and outcomes in patients with acute stroke in the United Kingdom.MethodsRegistry-based cohort study of patients with acute stroke admitted to hospital in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland between October 1, 2019, and April 30, 2020, and equivalent periods in the 3 prior years.ResultsOne hundred fourteen hospitals provided data for a study cohort of 184 017 patients. During the lockdown period (March 23 to April 30), there was a 12% reduction (6923 versus 7902) in the number of admissions compared with the same period in the 3 previous years. Admissions fell more for ischemic than hemorrhagic stroke, for older patients, and for patients with less severe strokes. Quality of care was preserved for all measures and in some domains improved during lockdown (direct access to stroke unit care, 1-hour brain imaging, and swallow screening). Although there was no change in the proportion of patients discharged with good outcome (modified Rankin Scale score, ≤2; 48% versus 48%), 7-day inpatient case fatality increased from 6.9% to 9.4% (P<0.001) and was 22.0% in patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 (adjusted rate ratio, 1.41 [1.11-1.80]).ConclusionsAssuming that the true incidence of acute stroke did not change markedly during the pandemic, hospital avoidance may have created a cohort of untreated stroke patients at risk of poorer outcomes or recurrent events. Unanticipated improvements in stroke care quality should be used as an opportunity for quality improvement and to learn about how to develop resilient health care systems.
| S-EPMC8140645 | biostudies-literature