Dataset Information

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model.

ABSTRACT: The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population's health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health trajectories of elderly population is a natural requirement. This study presents an innovative methodological framework for projecting the health of individuals using a dynamic microsimulation model that considers interactions between sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, bio-medical and behavioral risk factors. The model developed, called ATHLOS-Mic, is used to project the health of cohorts born before 1960 for the period 2015-2060 for selected European Countries using SHARE data to illustrate the possible effects of some selected risk factors and education on future health trajectories. Results show that, driven by a better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than the previous one at same age. Also, we see that, on average, an individual of our base population will live about 18 more years since the start of the projection period, but only 5 years in good health. Finally, we find that a scenario that removes the effect of having a low level of education on individual health has the largest impact on the projected average health, the average number of years lived per person, and the average number of years lived in good health.

SUBMITTER: Marois G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7815779 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model.

Marois Guillaume G Aktas Arda A

Scientific reports 20210119 1

The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population's health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health trajectories of elderly population is a natural requirement. This study presents an innovative methodological framework for projecting the health of individuals using a dynamic microsimulation model that cons ...[more]

PMID: 33469046

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Project description:BackgroundWe developed an integrated model called Microsimulation for Income and Child Health (MICH) that provides a tool for analysing the prospective effects of fiscal policies on childhood health in European countries. The aim of this first MICH study is to evaluate the impact of alternative fiscal policies on childhood overweight and obesity in Italy.MethodsMICH model is composed of three integrated modules. Firstly, module 1 (M1) simulates the effects of fiscal policies on disposable household income using the tax-benefit microsimulation program EUROMOD fed with the Italian EU-SILC 2010 data. Secondly, module 2 (M2) exploits data provided by the Italian birth cohort called Nascita e Infanzia: gli Effetti dell'Ambiente (NINFEA), translated as Birth and Childhood: the Effects of the Environment study, and runs a series of concatenated regressions in order to estimate the prospective effects of income on child body mass index (BMI) at different ages. Finally, module 3 (M3) uses dynamic microsimulation techniques that combine the population structure and incomes obtained by M1, with regression model specifications and estimated effect sizes provided by M2, projecting BMI distributions according to the simulated policy scenarios.ResultsBoth universal benefits, such as universal basic income (BI), and targeted interventions, such as child benefit (CB) for poorer households, have a significant effect on childhood overweight, with a prevalence ratio (PR) in 10-year-old children-in comparison with the baseline fiscal system-of 0.88 (95%CI 0.82-0.93) and 0.89 (95%CI 0.83-0.94), respectively. The impact of the fiscal reforms was even larger for child obesity, reaching a PR of 0.67 (95%CI 0·50-0.83) for the simulated BI and 0.64 (95%CI 0.44-0.84) for CB at the same age. While both types of policies show similar effects, the estimated costs for a 1% prevalence reduction in overweight and obesity with respect to the baseline scenario is much lower with a more focalised benefit policy than with universal ones.ConclusionsOur results show that fiscal policies can have a strong impact on childhood health conditions. Focalised interventions that increase family income, especially in the most vulnerable populations, can help to prevent child overweight and obesity. Robust microsimulation models to forecast the effects of fiscal policies on health should be considered as one of the instruments to reach the Health in All Policies (HiAP) goals.

Dataset Information

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model.

Publications

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model.

Similar Datasets

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