Dataset Information

Validation of prognostic indices for short term mortality in an incident dialysis population of older adults >75.

ABSTRACT:

Rational and objective

Prognosis provides critical knowledge for shared decision making between patients and clinicians. While several prognostic indices for mortality in dialysis patients have been developed, their performance among elderly patients initiating dialysis is unknown, despite great need for reliable prognostication in that context. To assess the performance of 6 previously validated prognostic indices to predict 3 and/or 6 months mortality in a cohort of elderly incident dialysis patients.

Study design

Validation study of prognostic indices using retrospective cohort data. Indices were compared using the concordance ("c")-statistic, i.e. area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Calibration, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were also calculated.

Setting & participants

Incident elderly (age ?75 years; n = 349) dialysis patients at a tertiary referral center.

Established predictors

Variables for six validated prognostic indices for short term (3 and 6 month) mortality prediction (Foley, NCI, REIN, updated REIN, Thamer, and Wick) were extracted from the electronic medical record. The indices were individually applied as per each index specifications to predict 3- and/or 6-month mortality.

Results

In our cohort of 349 patients, mean age was 81.5±4.4 years, 66% were male, and median survival was 351 days. The c-statistic for the risk prediction indices ranged from 0.57 to 0.73. Wick ROC 0.73 (0.68, 0.78) and Foley 0.67 (0.61, 0.73) indices performed best. The Foley index was weakly calibrated with poor overall model fit (p <0.01) and overestimated mortality risk, while the Wick index was relatively well-calibrated but underestimated mortality risk.

Limitations

Small sample size, use of secondary data, need for imputation, homogeneous population.

Conclusion

Most predictive indices for mortality performed moderately in our incident dialysis population. The Wick and Foley indices were the best performing, but had issues with under and over calibration. More accurate indices for predicting survival in older patients with kidney failure are needed.

SUBMITTER: Thorsteinsdottir B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7816982 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Validation of prognostic indices for short term mortality in an incident dialysis population of older adults >75.

Thorsteinsdottir Bjorg B Hickson LaTonya J LJ Giblon Rachel R Pajouhi Atieh A Connell Natalie N Branda Megan M Vasdev Amrit K AK McCoy Rozalina G RG Zand Ladan L Tangri Navdeep N Shah Nilay D ND

PloS one 20210120 1

<h4>Rational and objective</h4>Prognosis provides critical knowledge for shared decision making between patients and clinicians. While several prognostic indices for mortality in dialysis patients have been developed, their performance among elderly patients initiating dialysis is unknown, despite great need for reliable prognostication in that context. To assess the performance of 6 previously validated prognostic indices to predict 3 and/or 6 months mortality in a cohort of elderly incident di ...[more]

PMID: 33471808

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceCurrent guidelines lack consensus regarding the treatment of patients who may not benefit from dialysis; this lack of consensus may be associated with the substantial variation in dialysis use and outcomes across health care facilities.ObjectiveTo assess the degree to which variation in dialysis use and mortality was associated with patient rather than facility characteristics and to distinguish which features identified the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facilities with high rates of dialysis use.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed data of veterans with stage 3 or 4 chronic kidney disease that progressed to kidney failure between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2014. These patients received care from VA facilities across the US. Data sources included laboratory and administrative records from the VA, Medicare, and United States Renal Data System. Data analysis was conducted from August 1, 2019, to September 1, 2020.ExposuresThe primary exposure was the VA facility in which patients received most of their care before the onset of incident kidney failure defined as the first occurrence of either a sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or the initiation of maintenance dialysis.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcomes were dialysis use and mortality within 2 years of incident kidney failure. Median rate ratio was used to quantify facility-level variation, and variance partition coefficient was used to quantify the sources of unexplained variation.ResultsThe cohort included 8695 older veterans with a mean (SD) age of 78.8 (7.5) years who were predominantly male (8573 [99%]) and White (6102 [70%]) individuals treated at 108 VA facilities. The observed frequency of dialysis use across facilities ranged from 25.0% to 81.4%, with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) rate of 51.7% (48.4%-60.0%). The observed frequency of mortality across facilities ranged from 27.2% to 60.0%, with a median (IQR) rate of 45.2% (41.2%-48.6%). The median rate ratio (adjusted for multiple patient and facility characteristics) was 1.40 for dialysis use and 1.08 for mortality. The unexplained variation in both outcomes mainly derived from patient characteristics rather than facility characteristics. No correlation was found between dialysis use and mortality at the facility level (correlation coefficient = 0.03).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found sizable variation in dialysis use for older adults that was poorly correlated with facility-level mortality rates and was not accounted for by differences in measured patient and facility characteristics. These findings suggest opportunities to improve the degree to which dialysis use practices align with the values, goals, and preferences of older adults with kidney failure.

Project description:The US Environmental Protection Agency is required to reexamine its National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) every 5 years, but evidence of mortality risk is lacking at air pollution levels below the current daily NAAQS in unmonitored areas and for sensitive subgroups.To estimate the association between short-term exposures to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, and at levels below the current daily NAAQS, and mortality in the continental United States.Case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to estimate the association between short-term exposures to PM2.5 and ozone (mean of daily exposure on the same day of death and 1 day prior) and mortality in 2-pollutant models. The study included the entire Medicare population from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2012, residing in 39?182 zip codes.Daily PM2.5 and ozone levels in a 1-km × 1-km grid were estimated using published and validated air pollution prediction models based on land use, chemical transport modeling, and satellite remote sensing data. From these gridded exposures, daily exposures were calculated for every zip code in the United States. Warm-season ozone was defined as ozone levels for the months April to September of each year.All-cause mortality in the entire Medicare population from 2000 to 2012.During the study period, there were 22?433?862 million case days and 76?143?209 control days. Of all case and control days, 93.6% had PM2.5 levels below 25 ?g/m3, during which 95.2% of deaths occurred (21?353?817 of 22?433?862), and 91.1% of days had ozone levels below 60 parts per billion, during which 93.4% of deaths occurred (20?955?387 of 22?433?862). The baseline daily mortality rates were 137.33 and 129.44 (per 1 million persons at risk per day) for the entire year and for the warm season, respectively. Each short-term increase of 10 ?g/m3 in PM2.5 (adjusted by ozone) and 10 parts per billion (10-9) in warm-season ozone (adjusted by PM2.5) were statistically significantly associated with a relative increase of 1.05% (95% CI, 0.95%-1.15%) and 0.51% (95% CI, 0.41%-0.61%) in daily mortality rate, respectively. Absolute risk differences in daily mortality rate were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.29-1.56) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.53-0.78) per 1 million persons at risk per day. There was no evidence of a threshold in the exposure-response relationship.In the US Medicare population from 2000 to 2012, short-term exposures to PM2.5 and warm-season ozone were significantly associated with increased risk of mortality. This risk occurred at levels below current national air quality standards, suggesting that these standards may need to be reevaluated.

Project description:RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with kidney failure treated by maintenance dialysis. Whether the incidence of AF differs between patients receiving hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis is uncertain. STUDY DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:Using the US Renal Data System, we identified older patients (?67 years) with Medicare Parts A and B who initiated dialysis therapy (1996-2011) without a diagnosis of AF during the prior 2 years. EXPOSURE:Dialysis modality at incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and maintained for at least 90 days. OUTCOME:Patients were followed up for 36 months or less for a new diagnosis of AF. ANALYTICAL APPROACH:Time-to-event analysis using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate cause-specific HRs while censoring at modality switch, kidney transplantation, or death. RESULTS:Overall, 271,722 older patients were eligible; 17,487 (6.9%) were treated with peritoneal dialysis, and 254,235 (93.1%), with hemodialysis, at the onset of ESRD. During 406,225 person-years of follow-up, 69,705 patients had AF newly diagnosed. Because the proportionality assumption was violated, we introduced an interaction term between time (first 90 days vs thereafter) and modality. The AF incidence during the first 90 days was 187/1,000 person-years on peritoneal dialysis therapy and 372/1,000 person-years on hemodialysis therapy. Patients on peritoneal dialysis therapy had an adjusted 39% (95% CI, 34%-43%) lower incidence of AF than those on hemodialysis therapy. From day 91 onward, AF incidence was ?140/1,000 person-years with no major difference between modalities. LIMITATIONS:Residual confounding from unobserved differences between exposure groups; ascertainment of AF from billing claims; study of first modality may not generalize to patients switching modalities; uncertain generalizability to younger patients. CONCLUSIONS:Although patients initiating dialysis therapy using peritoneal dialysis had a lower AF incidence during the first 90 days of ESRD, there was no major difference in AF incidence thereafter. The value of interventions to reduce the early excess AF risk in patients receiving hemodialysis may warrant further study.

Project description:BackgroundStudies on the association between iron supplementation and mortality in dialysis patients are rare and conflicting.MethodsIn our observational single-center cohort study (INVOR study) we prospectively studied 235 incident dialysis patients. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models using all measured laboratory values for up to 7.6 years were applied to study the association between iron supplementation and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality. Furthermore, the time-dependent association of ferritin levels with mortality in patients with normal C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (<0.5 mg/dL) and elevated CRP levels (?0.5 mg/dL) was evaluated by using non-linear P-splines to allow flexible modeling of the association.ResultsOne hundred and ninety-one (81.3%) patients received intravenous iron, 13 (5.5%) patients oral iron, whereas 31 (13.2%) patients were never supplemented with iron throughout the observation period. Eighty-two (35%) patients died during a median follow-up of 34 months, 38 patients due to cardiovascular events and 21 patients from sepsis. Baseline CRP levels were not different between patients with and without iron supplementation. However, baseline serum ferritin levels were lower in patients receiving iron during follow up (median 93 vs 251 ng/mL, p<0.001). Iron supplementation was associated with a significantly reduced all-cause mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.22 (0.08-0.58); p?=?0.002] and a reduced cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.31 (0.09-1.04); p?=?0.06]. Increasing ferritin concentrations in patients with normal CRP were associated with a decreasing mortality, whereas in patients with elevated CRP values ferritin levels>800 ng/mL were linked with increased mortality.ConclusionsIron supplementation is associated with reduced all-cause mortality in incident dialysis patients. While serum ferritin levels up to 800 ng/mL appear to be safe, higher ferritin levels are associated with increased mortality in the setting of concomitant inflammation.

Project description:BackgroundTo construct and validate a simple and easily administered scoring tool for the prediction of short-term prognostic survival in adult patients with sepsis.MethodsThis study is a retrospective and prospective cohort study. A total of 382 patients with sepsis. 274 sepsis patients from January 2020 to December 2020 were collected as the modeling group and 54 sepsis patients from January 2021 to December 2021 and April to May 2022 in the hospital were randomly collected as the validation group. They were divided into survival and non-survival groups according to the outcome. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted with subgroup analysis. The resulting models were tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The prognostic value of the variables on prognosis was expressed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A scoring tool was constructed and tested for the prognostic value of this score in the validation group.ResultsThe model had an AUC of 0.880 [95% CI (0.838-0.922), P < 0.001], model sensitivity of 81.15%, and specificity of 80.26% for predicting short-term prognosis in patients with sepsis. Further simplifying the model scoring rules and adding the lactate variable, the AUCs was 0.876 [95% CI (0.833-0.918)], P < 0.001], sensitivity was 78.69%, specificity was 82.89%, and scoring criteria were established. the AUCs of the internally validated model in 2021 and 2022 were 0.968 [95% CI (0.916 to 1.000), P < 0.001] and 0.943 [95% CI (0.873 to 1.000), P < 0.001], indicating that the constructed scoring tool has a good predictive value for short-term survival outcomes in patients with sepsis.ConclusionsAge, shock, lactate, lactate/albumin ratio (L/A), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) are five risk factors for adult sepsis prognosis in an early emergency. This scoring tool is developed to quickly assess the short-term survival outcome in adult sepsis patients. It is straightforward and easy to administer. It also has a high prognostic predictive value.The Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2200058375).

Dataset Information

Validation of prognostic indices for short term mortality in an incident dialysis population of older adults >75.

Rational and objective

Study design

Setting & participants

Established predictors

Results

Limitations

Conclusion

Publications

Validation of prognostic indices for short term mortality in an incident dialysis population of older adults >75.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets