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Bayesian survival analysis for early detection of treatment effects in phase 3 clinical trials.

ABSTRACT: Despite appealing characteristics for the clinical trials setting, Bayesian inference methods remain scarcely used, especially in randomized controlled clinical trials (RCT). This is particularly true when dealing with a survival endpoint, likely due to the additional complexities to model specifications. We propose to use Bayesian inference to estimate the treatment effect in this setting, using a proportional hazards (PH) model for right-censored data. Implementation of such an estimation process is illustrated on two working examples from cancer RCTs, the ALLOZITHRO and the CLL7-SA trials, both originally analyzed using a frequentist approach. In these two different settings, we show that Bayesian sequential analyses can provide early insight on treatment effect in RCTs. Relying on posterior distributions and predictive posterior probabilities, we find that Bayesian sequential analyses of the ALLOZITHRO trial, which was terminated early due to an unanticipated deleterious effect of the intervention on survival, allow quantifying early that the treatment effect was opposite to what was expected. Then, incorporating historical data in the sequential analyses of the CLL7-SA trial would have allowed the treatment effect to be closer to the protocol hypothesis. These post-hoc results give grounds to advocate for a wider use of Bayesian approaches in RCTs, including those with right-censored endpoints, as informative decision tools.

SUBMITTER: Biard L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7817368 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian survival analysis for early detection of treatment effects in phase 3 clinical trials.

Biard Lucie L Bergeron Anne A Lévy Vincent V Chevret Sylvie S

Contemporary clinical trials communications 20210109

Despite appealing characteristics for the clinical trials setting, Bayesian inference methods remain scarcely used, especially in randomized controlled clinical trials (RCT). This is particularly true when dealing with a survival endpoint, likely due to the additional complexities to model specifications. We propose to use Bayesian inference to estimate the treatment effect in this setting, using a proportional hazards (PH) model for right-censored data. Implementation of such an estimation proc ...[more]

PMID: 33511301

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Project description:BackgroundRandomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard for evaluating experimental treatments but often require large sample sizes. Single-arm trials require smaller sample sizes but are subject to bias when using historical control data for comparative inferences. This article presents a Bayesian adaptive synthetic-control design that exploits historical control data to create a hybrid of a single-arm trial and a randomized controlled trial.MethodsThe Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design has two stages. In stage 1, a prespecified number of patients are enrolled in a single arm given the experimental treatment. Based on the stage 1 data, applying propensity score matching and Bayesian posterior prediction methods, the usefulness of the historical control data for identifying a pseudo sample of matched synthetic-control patients for making comparative inferences is evaluated. If a sufficient number of synthetic controls can be identified, the single-arm trial is continued. If not, the trial is switched to a randomized controlled trial. The performance of The Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design is evaluated by computer simulation.ResultsThe Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design achieves power and unbiasedness similar to a randomized controlled trial but on average requires a much smaller sample size, provided that the historical control data patients are sufficiently comparable to the trial patients so that a good number of matched controls can be identified in the historical control data. Compared to a single-arm trial, The Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design yields much higher power and much smaller bias.ConclusionThe Bayesian adaptive synthetic-control design provides a useful tool for exploiting historical control data to improve the efficiency of single-arm phase II clinical trials, while addressing the problem of bias when comparing trial results to historical control data. The proposed design achieves power similar to a randomized controlled trial but may require a substantially smaller sample size.

Dataset Information

Bayesian survival analysis for early detection of treatment effects in phase 3 clinical trials.

Publications

Bayesian survival analysis for early detection of treatment effects in phase 3 clinical trials.

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