Dataset Information

A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.

ABSTRACT: According to the 'hardening hypothesis', average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening hypothesis. Changes in smoking behaviour in Australia over the period 2001?2016 resulted in substantial decreases in current smoking prevalence (from 23.1% in 2001 to 14.6% in 2016) and the proportion of heavily dependent smokers in the smoking population (from 52.1% to 36.9%). Public health interventions that have proved particularly effective in reducing smoking prevalence (tobacco tax increases, smoke-free environment legislation, antismoking mass media campaigns) are expected to also contribute to a decline in population-level nicotine dependence.

SUBMITTER: Skinner A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7820504 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.

Skinner Adam A Occhipinti Jo-An JA Osgood Nathaniel D ND

Scientific reports 20210121 1

According to the 'hardening hypothesis', average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the poten ...[more]

PMID: 33479364

Similar Datasets

Project description:INTRODUCTION:This study investigated the effects of nicotine/tobacco on neural activation during performance of a monetary incentive delay task. AIMS AND METHODS:Prior to each scan, nonsmokers received nicotine or placebo nasal spray, and smokers were smoking satiated or 24-hour withdrawn. During the scan, participants made timed responses to reward-related cues and received feedback. Parameter estimates from cue- and feedback-related activation in medial prefrontal regions and the nucleus accumbens were extracted and underwent within- and between-group analyses. Smokers' nicotine dependence severity was included as a continuous predictor variable for neural activation. RESULTS:Among smokers (n = 21), withdrawal decreased cue-related activation in the supplementary motor area and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and the difference in activation (satiety > withdrawal) in these regions negatively correlated with nicotine dependence severity (Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence). Among nonsmokers (n = 22), nicotine increased the difference in nucleus accumbens activation between rewarded and nonrewarded feedback phases. Tobacco withdrawal and acute nicotine also had widespread effects on activation throughout the brain during the feedback phase. CONCLUSIONS:Acute nicotine in nonsmokers may have increased the salience of feedback information, but produced few effects on reward-related activation overall, perhaps reflecting nicotine's modest, indirect effects on reward processing. Conversely, tobacco withdrawal decreased activation compared with satiety, and this difference between conditions correlated with nicotine dependence severity. This suggests that as smokers become more dependent on nicotine, tobacco withdrawal has a more pronounced effect on reward processing. IMPLICATIONS:Relative to the acute effects of nicotine in nonsmokers, withdrawal from daily tobacco use had more significant effects on reward-related brain activation. This study suggests that the effects of tobacco withdrawal on reward-related brain function interact with subjects' level of nicotine dependence severity. These are potentially important sources of variability that could contribute to smoking cessation outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundThis paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the country.MethodsUsing data from the District Health Information Management System of the Ghana Health Service from 2008 to 2017, and historical intervention coverage levels, ordinary non-linear differential equations models were developed. These models incorporated transitions amongst various disease compartments for the three main ecological zones in Ghana. The Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach, with a distance based rejection criteria, was adopted for calibration. A leave-one-out approach was used to validate model parameters and the most sensitive parameters were evaluated using a multivariate regression analysis. The impact of insecticide-treated bed nets and their usage, and indoor residual spraying, as well as their protective efficacy on the incidence of malaria, was simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone to investigate the prospects of achieving goals of the Ghana malaria control strategy for 2014-2020.ResultsIncreasing the coverage levels of both long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying activities, without a corresponding increase in their recommended utilization, does not impact highly on averting predicted incidence of malaria. Improving proper usage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets could lead to substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying across all ecological zones of Ghana.ConclusionsProjected goals set in the national strategic plan for malaria control 2014-2020, as well as World Health Organization targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030, are only likely to be achieved if a substantial improvement in treated bed net usage is achieved, coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high community acceptability and efficacy.

Dataset Information

A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.

Publications

A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets