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Ranking of a wide multidomain set of predictor variables of children obesity by machine learning variable importance techniques.

ABSTRACT: The increased prevalence of childhood obesity is expected to translate in the near future into a concomitant soaring of multiple cardio-metabolic diseases. Obesity has a complex, multifactorial etiology, that includes multiple and multidomain potential risk factors: genetics, dietary and physical activity habits, socio-economic environment, lifestyle, etc. In addition, all these factors are expected to exert their influence through a specific and especially convoluted way during childhood, given the fast growth along this period. Machine Learning methods are the appropriate tools to model this complexity, given their ability to cope with high-dimensional, non-linear data. Here, we have analyzed by Machine Learning a sample of 221 children (6-9 years) from Madrid, Spain. Both Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine models have been derived to predict the body mass index from a wide set of 190 multidomain variables (including age, sex, genetic polymorphisms, lifestyle, socio-economic, diet, exercise, and gestation ones). A consensus relative importance of the predictors has been estimated through variable importance measures, implemented robustly through an iterative process that included permutation and multiple imputation. We expect this analysis will help to shed light on the most important variables associated to childhood obesity, in order to choose better treatments for its prevention.

SUBMITTER: Marcos-Pasero H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7820584 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ranking of a wide multidomain set of predictor variables of children obesity by machine learning variable importance techniques.

Marcos-Pasero Helena H Colmenarejo Gonzalo G Aguilar-Aguilar Elena E Ramírez de Molina Ana A Reglero Guillermo G Loria-Kohen Viviana V

Scientific reports 20210121 1

The increased prevalence of childhood obesity is expected to translate in the near future into a concomitant soaring of multiple cardio-metabolic diseases. Obesity has a complex, multifactorial etiology, that includes multiple and multidomain potential risk factors: genetics, dietary and physical activity habits, socio-economic environment, lifestyle, etc. In addition, all these factors are expected to exert their influence through a specific and especially convoluted way during childhood, given ...[more]

PMID: 33479310

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Project description:We present prediction and variable importance (VIM) methods for longitudinal data sets containing continuous and binary exposures subject to missingness. We demonstrate the use of these methods for prognosis of medical outcomes of severe trauma patients, a field in which current medical practice involves rules of thumb and scoring methods that only use a few variables and ignore the dynamic and high-dimensional nature of trauma recovery. Well-principled prediction and VIM methods can provide a tool to make care decisions informed by the high-dimensional patient's physiological and clinical history. Our VIM parameters are analogous to slope coefficients in adjusted regressions, but are not dependent on a specific statistical model, nor require a certain functional form of the prediction regression to be estimated. In addition, they can be causally interpreted under causal and statistical assumptions as the expected outcome under time-specific clinical interventions, related to changes in the mean of the outcome if each individual experiences a specified change in the variable (keeping other variables in the model fixed). Better yet, the targeted MLE used is doubly robust and locally efficient. Because the proposed VIM does not constrain the prediction model fit, we use a very flexible ensemble learner (the SuperLearner), which returns a linear combination of a list of user-given algorithms. Not only is such a prediction algorithm intuitive appealing, it has theoretical justification as being asymptotically equivalent to the oracle selector. The results of the analysis show effects whose size and significance would have been not been found using a parametric approach (such as stepwise regression or LASSO). In addition, the procedure is even more compelling as the predictor on which it is based showed significant improvements in cross-validated fit, for instance area under the curve (AUC) for a receiver-operator curve (ROC). Thus, given that 1) our VIM applies to any model fitting procedure, 2) under assumptions has meaningful clinical (causal) interpretations and 3) has asymptotic (influence-curve) based robust inference, it provides a compelling alternative to existing methods for estimating variable importance in high-dimensional clinical (or other) data.

Dataset Information

Ranking of a wide multidomain set of predictor variables of children obesity by machine learning variable importance techniques.

Publications

Ranking of a wide multidomain set of predictor variables of children obesity by machine learning variable importance techniques.

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