Dataset Information

Predictors of death after receiving a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt in cyanotic heart children: A competing risk analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To determine risk factors affecting time-to-death ≤90 and >90 days in children who underwent a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt (MBTS).

Methods

Data from a retrospective cohort study were obtained from children aged 0-3 years who experienced MBTS between 2005 and 2016. Time-to-death (prior to Glenn/repair), time-to-alive up until December 2017 without repair, and time-to-progression to Glenn/repair following MBTS were presented using competing risks survival analysis. Demographic, surgical and anesthesia-related factors were recorded. Time-to-death ≤90 days and >90 days was analyzed using multivariate time-dependent Cox regression models to identify independent predictors and presented by adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of 380 children, 119 died, 122 survived and 139 progressed to Glenn/repair. Time-to-death probability (95% CI) within 90 days was 0.18 (0.14-0.22). Predictors of time-to-death ≤90 days (n = 63) were low weight (<3 kg) (HR 7.6, 95% CI:2.8-20.4), preoperative ventilator support (HR 2.7, 95% CI:1.3-5.6), postoperative shunt thrombosis (HR 5.0, 95% CI:2.4-10.4), bleeding (HR 4.5, 95% CI:2.1-9.4) and renal failure (HR 4.1, 95% CI:1.5-10.9). Predictors of time-to-death >90 days (n = 56) were children diagnosed with pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect and single ventricle (compared to tetralogy of fallot) (HR 3.2, 95% CI:1.2-7.7 and HR 3.1, 95% CI:1.3-7.6, respectively), shunt size/weight ratio >1.1 vs <0.65 (HR 6.8, 95% CI:1.4-32.6) and longer duration of mechanical ventilator (HR 1.002, 95% CI:1.001-1.004). Shunt size/weight ratio ≥1.0 (vs <1.0) and ≥0.65 (vs <0.65) were predictors for overall time-to-death in neonates and toddlers, respectively (HR 13.1, 95% CI:2.8-61.4 and HR 7.8, 95% CI:1.7-34.8, respectively).

Conclusions

Perioperative factors were associated with time-to-death ≤90 days, whereas particular cardiac defect, larger shunt size/weight ratio, and longer mechanical ventilation were associated with time-to-death >90 days after receiving MBTS. Larger shunt size/weight ratio should be reevaluated within 90 days to minimize the risk of shunt over flow.

SUBMITTER: Oofuvong M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7822344 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background:Since oxygen saturation from pulse oximetry (SpO2) and partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2) are observed to improve immediately after surgical correction of cyanotic congenital heart disease (CHD), we postulate that cerebral (CrO2) and somatic (SrO2) oximetry also improves immediately post-correction. We aim to prospectively examine CrO2 and SrO2, before, during, and after surgical correction as well as on hospital discharge in children with cyanotic CHD to determine if and when these variables increase. Methods:This is a prospective observational trial. Eligibility criteria included children below 18?years of age with cyanotic CHD who required any cardiac surgical procedure. CrO2 and SrO2 measurements were summarized at six time-points for comparison: (1) pre-cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB); (2) during CPB; (3) post-CPB; (4) Day 1 in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU); (5) Day 2 PICU; and (6) discharge. Categorical and continuous variables are presented as counts (percentages) and median (interquartile range), respectively. Results:Twenty-one patients were analyzed. 15 (71.4%) and 6 (28.6%) patients underwent corrective and palliative surgeries, respectively. In the corrective surgery group, SpO2 increased immediately post-CPB compared to pre-CPB [99 (98, 100) vs. 86% (79, 90); p?<?0.001] and remained in the normal range through to hospital discharge. Post-CPB CrO2 did not change from pre-CPB [72.8 (58.8, 79.0) vs. 72.1% (63.0, 78.3); p?=?0.761] and even decreased on hospital discharge [60.5 (53.6, 62.9) vs. 72.1% (63.0, 78.3); p?=?0.005]. Post-CPB SrO2 increased compared to pre-CPB [87.3 (77.2, 89.5) vs. 72.7% (65.6, 77.3); p?=?0.001] but progressively decreased during PICU stay to a value lower than baseline at hospital discharge [66.9 (57.3, 76.9) vs. 72.7% (65.6, 77.3); p?=?0.048]. Conclusion:CrO2 and SrO2 did not increase after corrective surgery of cyanotic CHD even up to hospital discharge. Future larger studies are required to validate these findings. (This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02417259.).