Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Cars have a high share of global transport-related CO₂ emissions. To model the market diffusion of new energy carriers and powertrains like electric vehicles, fleet turnover models are commonly used. A decisive influence factor for the substitution dynamics of such transformations is the survival rate of the national car fleet of a country. It represents the likelihood of a car reaching a certain lifespan. Due to a lack of data, current methods to estimate such survival probabilities neglect the imports and exports of used cars. Existing studies are limited to countries with a predominant market of new cars, compared to low numbers of imported and exported used cars. In this study, we resolve this marked simplification and propose a new method to estimate survival probabilities

SUBMITTER: Held M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7829067 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature