Rapid triage for COVID-19 using routine clinical data for patients attending hospital: development and prospective validation of an artificial intelligence screening test.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Soltan AAS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7831998 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Failure to attend scheduled hospital appointments disrupts clinical management and consumes resource estimated at £1 billion annually in the United Kingdom National Health Service alone. Accurate stratification of absence risk can maximize the yield of preventative interventions. The wide multiplicity of potential causes, and the poor performance of systems based on simple, linear, low-dimensional models, suggests complex predictive models of attendance are needed. Here, we quantify the effect of using complex, non-linear, high-dimensional models enabled by machine learning. Models systematically varying in complexity based on logistic regression, support vector machines, random forests, AdaBoost, or gradient boosting machines were trained and evaluated on an unselected set of 22,318 consecutive scheduled magnetic resonance imaging appointments at two UCL hospitals. High-dimensional Gradient Boosting Machine-based models achieved the best performance reported in the literature, exhibiting an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.852 and average precision of 0.511. Optimal predictive performance required 81 variables. Simulations showed net potential benefit across a wide range of attendance characteristics, peaking at £3.15 per appointment at current prevalence and call efficiency. Optimal attendance prediction requires more complex models than have hitherto been applied in the field, reflecting the complex interplay of patient, environmental, and operational causal factors. Far from an exotic luxury, high-dimensional models based on machine learning are likely essential to optimal scheduling amongst other operational aspects of hospital care. High predictive performance is achievable with data from a single institution, obviating the need for aggregating large-scale sensitive data across governance boundaries.
| S-EPMC6550247 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19, which is accompanied by acute respiratory distress, multiple organ failure, and death, has spread worldwide much faster than previously thought. However, at present, it has limited treatments.ObjectiveTo overcome this issue, we developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model of COVID-19, named EDRnet (ensemble learning model based on deep neural network and random forest models), to predict in-hospital mortality using a routine blood sample at the time of hospital admission.MethodsWe selected 28 blood biomarkers and used the age and gender information of patients as model inputs. To improve the mortality prediction, we adopted an ensemble approach combining deep neural network and random forest models. We trained our model with a database of blood samples from 361 COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China, and applied it to 106 COVID-19 patients in three Korean medical institutions.ResultsIn the testing data sets, EDRnet provided high sensitivity (100%), specificity (91%), and accuracy (92%). To extend the number of patient data points, we developed a web application (BeatCOVID19) where anyone can access the model to predict mortality and can register his or her own blood laboratory results.ConclusionsOur new AI model, EDRnet, accurately predicts the mortality rate for COVID-19. It is publicly available and aims to help health care providers fight COVID-19 and improve patients' outcomes.
| S-EPMC7759509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSexual health (SH) services increasingly need to prioritise those at greatest risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used SH surveillance data to develop algorithms to triage individuals attending SH services within two high-risk populations: men who have sex with men (MSM) and young people (YP).MethodsSeparate multivariable logistic regression models for MSM and YP were developed using surveillance data on demographics, recent sexual history, prior STI diagnoses and drug/alcohol use from five clinics in 2015-2016 to identify factors associated with new STI diagnoses. The models were prospectively applied in one SH clinic in May 2017 as an external validation.Findings9530 YP and 1448 MSM SH episodes informed model development. For YP, factors associated with new STI diagnosis (overall prevalence: 10.6%) were being of black or mixed white/black ethnicity; history of chlamydia diagnosis (previous year); and multiple partners/new partner (previous 3-months). The YPs model had reasonable performance (c-statistic: 0.703), but poor discrimination when externally validated (c-statistic: 0.539). For MSM, being of South Asian ethnicity; being born in Europe (excluding the UK); and condomless anal sex or drug use (both in previous 3-months) were associated with STI diagnosis (overall prevalence: 22.0%). The MSM model had a c-statistic of 0.676, reducing to 0.579 on validation.InterpretationSH surveillance data, including limited behavioural data, enabled triage algorithms to be developed, but its implementation may be problematic due to poor external performance. This approach may be more suitable to self-triage, including online, ensuring patients are directed towards appropriate services.FundingNIHR HTA programme (12/191/05).
| S-EPMC6537562 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE:To benchmark the human and machine performance of spectral-domain (SD) and swept-source (SS) optical coherence tomography (OCT) image segmentation, i.e., pixel-wise classification, for the compartments vitreous, retina, choroid, sclera. METHODS:A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained on OCT B-scan images annotated by a senior ground truth expert retina specialist to segment the posterior eye compartments. Independent benchmark data sets (30 SDOCT and 30 SSOCT) were manually segmented by three classes of graders with varying levels of ophthalmic proficiencies. Nine graders contributed to benchmark an additional 60 images in three consecutive runs. Inter-human and intra-human class agreement was measured and compared to the CNN results. RESULTS:The CNN training data consisted of a total of 6210 manually segmented images derived from 2070 B-scans (1046 SDOCT and 1024 SSOCT; 630 C-Scans). The CNN segmentation revealed a high agreement with all grader groups. For all compartments and groups, the mean Intersection over Union (IOU) score of CNN compartmentalization versus group graders' compartmentalization was higher than the mean score for intra-grader group comparison. CONCLUSION:The proposed deep learning segmentation algorithm (CNN) for automated eye compartment segmentation in OCT B-scans (SDOCT and SSOCT) is on par with manual segmentations by human graders.
| S-EPMC6697318 | biostudies-other
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8384917 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAssessment of spine alignment is crucial in the management of scoliosis, but current auto-analysis of spine alignment suffers from low accuracy. We aim to develop and validate a hybrid model named SpineHRNet+, which integrates artificial intelligence (AI) and rule-based methods to improve auto-alignment reliability and interpretability.MethodsFrom December 2019 to November 2020, 1,542 consecutive patients with scoliosis attending two local scoliosis clinics (The Duchess of Kent Children's Hospital at Sandy Bay in Hong Kong; Queen Mary Hospital in Pok Fu Lam on Hong Kong Island) were recruited. The biplanar radiographs of each patient were collected with our medical machine EOS™. The collected radiographs were recaptured using smartphones or screenshots, with deidentified images securely stored. Manually labelled landmarks and alignment parameters by a spine surgeon were considered as ground truth (GT). The data were split 8:2 to train and internally test SpineHRNet+, respectively. This was followed by a prospective validation on another 337 patients. Quantitative analyses of landmark predictions were conducted, and reliabilities of auto-alignment were assessed using linear regression and Bland-Altman plots. Deformity severity and sagittal abnormality classifications were evaluated by confusion matrices.FindingsSpineHRNet+ achieved accurate landmark detection with mean Euclidean distance errors of 2·78 and 5·52 pixels on posteroanterior and lateral radiographs, respectively. The mean angle errors between predictions and GT were 3·18° and 6·32° coronally and sagittally. All predicted alignments were strongly correlated with GT (p < 0·001, R2 > 0·97), with minimal overall difference visualised via Bland-Altman plots. For curve detections, 95·7% sensitivity and 88·1% specificity was achieved, and for severity classification, 88·6-90·8% sensitivity was obtained. For sagittal abnormalities, greater than 85·2-88·9% specificity and sensitivity were achieved.InterpretationThe auto-analysis provided by SpineHRNet+ was reliable and continuous and it might offer the potential to assist clinical work and facilitate large-scale clinical studies.FundingRGC Research Impact Fund (R5017-18F), Innovation and Technology Fund (ITS/404/18), and the AOSpine East Asia Fund (AOSEA(R)2019-06).
| S-EPMC8741432 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AI virtual assistants have significant potential to alleviate the pressure on overly burdened healthcare systems by enabling patients to self-assess their symptoms and to seek further care when appropriate. For these systems to make a meaningful contribution to healthcare globally, they must be trusted by patients and healthcare professionals alike, and service the needs of patients in diverse regions and segments of the population. We developed an AI virtual assistant which provides patients with triage and diagnostic information. Crucially, the system is based on a generative model, which allows for relatively straightforward re-parameterization to reflect local disease and risk factor burden in diverse regions and population segments. This is an appealing property, particularly when considering the potential of AI systems to improve the provision of healthcare on a global scale in many regions and for both developing and developed countries. We performed a prospective validation study of the accuracy and safety of the AI system and human doctors. Importantly, we assessed the accuracy and safety of both the AI and human doctors independently against identical clinical cases and, unlike previous studies, also accounted for the information gathering process of both agents. Overall, we found that the AI system is able to provide patients with triage and diagnostic information with a level of clinical accuracy and safety comparable to that of human doctors. Through this approach and study, we hope to start building trust in AI-powered systems by directly comparing their performance to human doctors, who do not always agree with each other on the cause of patients' symptoms or the most appropriate triage recommendation.
| S-EPMC7861270 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A new General Attitudes towards Artificial Intelligence Scale (GAAIS) was developed. The scale underwent initial statistical validation via Exploratory Factor Analysis, which identified positive and negative subscales. Both subscales captured emotions in line with their valence. In addition, the positive subscale reflected societal and personal utility, whereas the negative subscale reflected concerns. The scale showed good psychometric indices and convergent and discriminant validity against existing measures. To cross-validate general attitudes with attitudes towards specific instances of AI applications, summaries of tasks accomplished by specific applications of Artificial Intelligence were sourced from newspaper articles. These were rated for comfortableness and perceived capability. Comfortableness with specific applications was a strong predictor of general attitudes as measured by the GAAIS, but perceived capability was a weaker predictor. Participants viewed AI applications involving big data (e.g. astronomy, law, pharmacology) positively, but viewed applications for tasks involving human judgement, (e.g. medical treatment, psychological counselling) negatively. Applications with a strong ethical dimension led to stronger discomfort than their rated capabilities would predict. The survey data suggested that people held mixed views of AI. The initially validated two-factor GAAIS to measure General Attitudes towards Artificial Intelligence is included in the Appendix.
| S-EPMC7231759 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundArtificial intelligence (AI) holds the promise of supporting nurses' clinical decision-making in complex care situations or conducting tasks that are remote from direct patient interaction, such as documentation processes. There has been an increase in the research and development of AI applications for nursing care, but there is a persistent lack of an extensive overview covering the evidence base for promising application scenarios.ObjectiveThis study synthesizes literature on application scenarios for AI in nursing care settings as well as highlights adjacent aspects in the ethical, legal, and social discourse surrounding the application of AI in nursing care.MethodsFollowing a rapid review design, PubMed, CINAHL, Association for Computing Machinery Digital Library, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Xplore, Digital Bibliography & Library Project, and Association for Information Systems Library, as well as the libraries of leading AI conferences, were searched in June 2020. Publications of original quantitative and qualitative research, systematic reviews, discussion papers, and essays on the ethical, legal, and social implications published in English were included. Eligible studies were analyzed on the basis of predetermined selection criteria.ResultsThe titles and abstracts of 7016 publications and 704 full texts were screened, and 292 publications were included. Hospitals were the most prominent study setting, followed by independent living at home; fewer application scenarios were identified for nursing homes or home care. Most studies used machine learning algorithms, whereas expert or hybrid systems were entailed in less than every 10th publication. The application context of focusing on image and signal processing with tracking, monitoring, or the classification of activity and health followed by care coordination and communication, as well as fall detection, was the main purpose of AI applications. Few studies have reported the effects of AI applications on clinical or organizational outcomes, lacking particularly in data gathered outside laboratory conditions. In addition to technological requirements, the reporting and inclusion of certain requirements capture more overarching topics, such as data privacy, safety, and technology acceptance. Ethical, legal, and social implications reflect the discourse on technology use in health care but have mostly not been discussed in meaningful and potentially encompassing detail.ConclusionsThe results highlight the potential for the application of AI systems in different nursing care settings. Considering the lack of findings on the effectiveness and application of AI systems in real-world scenarios, future research should reflect on a more nursing care-specific perspective toward objectives, outcomes, and benefits. We identify that, crucially, an advancement in technological-societal discourse that surrounds the ethical and legal implications of AI applications in nursing care is a necessary next step. Further, we outline the need for greater participation among all of the stakeholders involved.
| S-EPMC8669587 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo rapidly exclude severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using artificial intelligence applied to the electrocardiogram (ECG).MethodsA global, volunteer consortium from 4 continents identified patients with ECGs obtained around the time of polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis and age- and sex-matched controls from the same sites. Clinical characteristics, polymerase chain reaction results, and raw electrocardiographic data were collected. A convolutional neural network was trained using 26,153 ECGs (33.2% COVID positive), validated with 3826 ECGs (33.3% positive), and tested on 7870 ECGs not included in other sets (32.7% positive). Performance under different prevalence values was tested by adding control ECGs from a single high-volume site.ResultsThe area under the curve for detection of acute COVID-19 infection in the test group was 0.767 (95% CI, 0.756 to 0.778; sensitivity, 98%; specificity, 10%; positive predictive value, 37%; negative predictive value, 91%). To more accurately reflect a real-world population, 50,905 normal controls were added to adjust the COVID prevalence to approximately 5% (2657/58,555), resulting in an area under the curve of 0.780 (95% CI, 0.771 to 0.790) with a specificity of 12.1% and a negative predictive value of 99.2%.ConclusionInfection with SARS-CoV-2 results in electrocardiographic changes that permit the artificial intelligence-enhanced ECG to be used as a rapid screening test with a high negative predictive value (99.2%). This may permit the development of electrocardiography-based tools to rapidly screen individuals for pandemic control.
| S-EPMC8327278 | biostudies-literature