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European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the lockdowns to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US and also recent developments since these lockdowns have been relaxed. The analysis employs a two-stage SEIR model with different reproductive numbers pre- and post-lockdown. These parameters are estimated from data on the daily number of confirmed cases in a process that automatically detects the time at which the lockdown became effective. The model is evaluated by considering its predictive accuracy on current data and is then extended to a three-stage version to explore relaxations. The results show the extent to which each country was successful in reducing the reproductive number and demonstrate how the approach is able to model recent increases in the number of cases in all six countries, including the second peak in the US. The results also indicate that the current levels of relaxation in all five European countries could lead to significant second waves that last longer than the corresponding first waves. While there is uncertainty about the implications of these findings at this stage, they do suggest that a lot of vigilance is needed.

SUBMITTER: Glass DH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7832121 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Glass David H DH

Mathematical biosciences 20200924

This paper investigates the lockdowns to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US and also recent developments since these lockdowns have been relaxed. The analysis employs a two-stage SEIR model with different reproductive numbers pre- and post-lockdown. These parameters are estimated from data on the daily number of confirmed cases in a process that automatically detects the time at which the lockdown became effective. The model is ev ...[more]

PMID: 32980417

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Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity seems to be influenced by genetic background, sex, age, and presence of specific comorbidities. So far, little attention has been paid to sex-specific variations of demographic, clinical, and laboratory features of COVID-19 patients referred to the same hospital in the two consecutive pandemic waves.MethodsDemographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected in 1000 COVID-19 patients (367 females and 633 males), 500 hospitalized in the first wave and 500 in the second one, at the ASST Spedali Civili of Brescia from March to December 2020. Statistical analyses have been employed to compare data obtained in females and males, taking into account their age, and during the first and second COVID-19 waves.ResultsThe mean age at the time of hospitalization was similar in females and males but was significantly higher for both in the second wave; the time elapsed from symptom onset to hospital admission did not differ between sexes in the two waves, and no correlation was observed between delayed hospital admission and length of hospitalization. The number of multi-symptomatic males was higher than that of females, and patients with a higher number of comorbidities were more frequently admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) and more frequently died. Older males remained in the ICU longer than females and showed a longer disease duration, mainly the first wave. The highest levels of white blood cells, neutrophils, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen were significantly higher in males and in the first, and along with higher levels of D-dimer, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, and procalcitonin which were preferentially documented in patients requiring ICU or died. While the rate of death in ICU was higher in males, the overall death rate did not differ between the sexes; however, the deceased women were older.ConclusionsThese data indicate that once patients were hospitalized, the risk of dying was similar between females and males. Therefore, future studies should aim at understanding the reasons why, for a given number of SARS-CoV-2 infections, fewer females develop the disease requiring hospitalization.HighlightsAlthough the hospitalized males were significantly more, the similar number of hospitalizations of the > 75-year-old females and males could be due to the fact that in Brescia province, elderly women are about twice as many as men. Although males spent more days in the hospital, had a longer disease duration, developed a critical illness more frequently, and were admitted and died in the ICU more than females, the total rate of deaths among patients was not significantly different between sexes. Overall, the most frequent comorbidities were cardiovascular diseases, which were preferentially seen among patients hospitalized in the second wave; it is possible that the knowledge gained in the first wave concerning the association between certain comorbidities and worse disease evolution has guided the preferential hospitalization of patients with these predominant comorbidities.

Project description:BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel virus that belongs to the coronaviruses and causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we explored the demographic details, clinical features, and routinely conducted laboratory investigations of patients with COVID-19 during the second and third waves of the pandemic to understand their possible diagnostic and prognostic values in Egypt.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, the demographic characteristics, detailed medical history, laboratory findings, and symptoms of all enrolled patients with SARS-CoV-2 were collected from the medical records of Beni Suef University Hospitals between December 15, 2020, and April 15, 2021.ResultsThis retrospective study included 473 patients, almost all of whom were elderly. The median age of the patients was 48 years, and those with moderate and severe disease were older than those with mild infections. The proportion of females was higher (63.4%) than males (36.6%). Diabetes mellitus (DM) was the most common comorbidity (17.3%), and fever was the most typical manifestation of COVID-19 (62.6%). Those with severe disease showed a higher C-reactive protein level (CRP) than those with moderate (p-value 0.009) or mild (p-value 0.01) diseases. Serum ferritin levels were significantly higher in patients with severe disease than in those with moderate disease (p-value 0.018). In contrast, d-dimer and serum creatinine were normal and showed no significant difference in all comparisons (p-value overall 0.21).ConclusionThis study observed several variations in COVID-19 patients' characteristics. The new manifestations included skin rash, bone and low back pains, and rigors. In contrast to females, most males had moderate-to-severe illness. Old age and higher body mass index was associated with increasing severity. d-dimer and complete blood count were normal and could not identify potential COVID-19 patients. Patients who had mild illness were still at risk of developing post-COVID complications.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic progressed more slowly in Africa than the rest of the world, by December, 2020, the second wave appeared to be much more aggressive with many more cases. To date, the pandemic situation in all 55 African Union (AU) Member States has not been comprehensively reviewed. We aimed to evaluate reported COVID-19 epidemiology data to better understand the pandemic's progression in Africa.MethodsWe did a cross-sectional analysis between Feb 14 and Dec 31, 2020, using COVID-19 epidemiological, testing, and mitigation strategy data reported by AU Member States to assess trends and identify the response and mitigation efforts at the country, regional, and continent levels. We did descriptive analyses on the variables of interest including cumulative and weekly incidence rates, case fatality ratios (CFRs), tests per case ratios, growth rates, and public health and social measures in place.FindingsAs of Dec 31, 2020, African countries had reported 2 763 421 COVID-19 cases and 65 602 deaths, accounting for 3·4% of the 82 312 150 cases and 3·6% of the 1 798 994 deaths reported globally. Nine of the 55 countries accounted for more than 82·6% (2 283 613) of reported cases. 18 countries reported CFRs greater than the global CFR (2·2%). 17 countries reported test per case ratios less than the recommended ten to 30 tests per case ratio range. At the peak of the first wave in Africa in July, 2020, the mean daily number of new cases was 18 273. As of Dec 31, 2020, 40 (73%) countries had experienced or were experiencing their second wave of cases with the continent reporting a mean of 23 790 daily new cases for epidemiological week 53. 48 (96%) of 50 Member States had five or more stringent public health and social measures in place by April 15, 2020, but this number had decreased to 36 (72%) as of Dec 31, 2020, despite an increase in cases in the preceding month.InterpretationOur analysis showed that the African continent had a more severe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic than the first, and highlights the importance of examining multiple epidemiological variables down to the regional and country levels over time. These country-specific and regional results informed the implementation of continent-wide initiatives and supported equitable distribution of supplies and technical assistance. Monitoring and analysis of these data over time are essential for continued situational awareness, especially as Member States attempt to balance controlling COVID-19 transmission with ensuring stable economies and livelihoods.FundingNone.

Project description:Defying the COVID-19 pandemic required restriction measures of unprecedented scale, that may induce and exacerbate psychiatric symptoms across the population. We aimed to assess in vivo dynamic effects of mitigation strategies on human brain neurobiology, neuroplastic as well as psychometric parameters. Three structural magnetic resonance imaging measurements, serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (sBDNF) analyses, and psychometric assessments (Beck Depression Inventory-II and Perceived Stress Questionnaire-20) were performed in healthy individuals and patients with a recurrent major depressive disorder in the period from September 2020 to July 2021. Group differences and changes over time in structural imaging, neuroplastic and psychometric parameters were assessed with linear mixed models. Analysis of data from 18 patients with a recurrent major depressive disorder and 28 healthy individuals showed clinically relevant scores for depression and stress in the patient group as well as significant cross-sectional differences in depression scores (F = 30.89, p < 0.001) and three subscales of the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (Worries: F = 19.19, p < 0.001, Tension: F = 34.44, p < 0.001, Joy: F = 12.05, p = 0.001). Linear mixed models revealed no significant changes over time in cortical thickness of the prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, hippocampus, and amygdala (F = 0.29, p > 0.1) and no interaction with group (F = 0.28, p > 0.1). Further, analysis revealed no main effect of time and no interaction of time x group in depressive symptoms, perceived stress subscales, and sBDNF (all p > 0.1). Despite the limited sample size, the strength of this investigation lies in the multimodal assessment of peri-pandemic lockdown effects. Nine months of varying restrictions measures did not result in observable changes in brain morphology nor impact depressive symptoms in either psychiatric patients with a recurrent major depressive disorder or healthy individuals. While these neurobiological and psychometric data stand in contrast to initial expectations about the effects of restriction measures, they might inform future investigations of longitudinal effects of restriction measures on mental health.

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European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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