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Causal inference methods for small non-randomized studies: Methods and an application in COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: The usual development cycles are too slow for the development of vaccines, diagnostics and treatments in pandemics such as the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Given the pressure in such a situation, there is a risk that findings of early clinical trials are overinterpreted despite their limitations in terms of size and design. Motivated by a non-randomized open-label study investigating the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19, we describe in a unified fashion various alternative approaches to the analysis of non-randomized studies. A widely used tool to reduce the impact of treatment-selection bias are so-called propensity score (PS) methods. Conditioning on the propensity score allows one to replicate the design of a randomized controlled trial, conditional on observed covariates. Extensions include the g-computation approach, which is less frequently applied, in particular in clinical studies. Moreover, doubly robust estimators provide additional advantages. Here, we investigate the properties of propensity score based methods including three variations of doubly robust estimators in small sample settings, typical for early trials, in a simulation study. R code for the simulations is provided.

SUBMITTER: Friedrich S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7834813 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Causal inference methods for small non-randomized studies: Methods and an application in COVID-19.

Friedrich Sarah S Friede Tim T

Contemporary clinical trials 20201111

The usual development cycles are too slow for the development of vaccines, diagnostics and treatments in pandemics such as the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Given the pressure in such a situation, there is a risk that findings of early clinical trials are overinterpreted despite their limitations in terms of size and design. Motivated by a non-randomized open-label study investigating the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19, we describe in a unified fashion various alternativ ...[more]

PMID: 33188930

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Project description:Premature discontinuation and other forms of noncompliance with treatment assignment can complicate causal inference of treatment effects in randomized trials. The intent-to-treat analysis gives unbiased estimates for causal effects of treatment assignment on outcome, but may understate potential benefit or harm of actual treatment. The corresponding upper confidence limit can also be underestimated.To compare estimates of the hazard ratio and upper bound of the two-sided 95% confidence interval from causal inference methods that account for noncompliance with those from the intent-to-treat analysis.We used simulations with parameters chosen to reflect cardiovascular safety trials of diabetes drugs, with a focus on upper bound estimates relative to 1.3, based on regulatory guidelines. A total of 1000 simulations were run under each parameter combination for a hypothetical trial of 10,000 total subjects randomly assigned to active treatment or control at 1:1 ratio. Noncompliance was considered in the form of treatment discontinuation and cross-over at specified proportions, with an assumed true hazard ratio of 0.9, 1, and 1.3, respectively. Various levels of risk associated with being a non-complier (independent of treatment status) were evaluated. Hazard ratio and upper bound estimates from causal survival analysis and intent-to-treat were obtained from each simulation and summarized under each parameter setting.Causal analysis estimated the true hazard ratio with little bias in almost all settings examined. Intent-to-treat was unbiased only when the true hazard ratio?=?1; otherwise it underestimated both benefit and harm. When upper bound estimates from intent-to-treat were ?1.3, corresponding estimates from causal analysis were also ?1.3 in almost 100% of the simulations, regardless of the true hazard ratio. When upper bound estimates from intent-to-treat were <1.3 and the true hazard ratio?=?1, corresponding upper bound estimates from causal analysis were ?1.3 in up to 66% of the simulations under some settings.Simulations cannot cover all scenarios for noncompliance in real randomized trials.Causal survival analysis was superior to intent-to-treat in estimating the true hazard ratio with respect to bias in the presence of noncompliance. However, its large variance should be considered for safety upper bound exclusion especially when the true hazard ratio?=?1. Our simulations provided a broad reference for practical considerations of bias-variance trade-off in dealing with noncompliance in cardiovascular safety trials of diabetes drugs. Further research is warranted for the development and application of causal inference methods in the evaluation of safety upper bounds.

Project description:IntroductionCausal methods have been adopted and adapted across health disciplines, particularly for the analysis of single studies. However, the sample sizes necessary to best inform decision-making are often not attainable with single studies, making pooled individual-level data analysis invaluable for public health efforts. Researchers commonly implement causal methods prevailing in their home disciplines, and how these are selected, evaluated, implemented and reported may vary widely. To our knowledge, no article has yet evaluated trends in the implementation and reporting of causal methods in studies leveraging individual-level data pooled from several studies. We undertake this review to uncover patterns in the implementation and reporting of causal methods used across disciplines in research focused on health outcomes. We will investigate variations in methods to infer causality used across disciplines, time and geography and identify gaps in reporting of methods to inform the development of reporting standards and the conversation required to effect change.Methods and analysisWe will search four databases (EBSCO, Embase, PubMed, Web of Science) using a search strategy developed with librarians from three universities (Heidelberg University, Harvard University, and University of California, San Francisco). The search strategy includes terms such as 'pool*', 'harmoniz*', 'cohort*', 'observational', variations on 'individual-level data'. Four reviewers will independently screen articles using Covidence and extract data from included articles. The extracted data will be analysed descriptively in tables and graphically to reveal the pattern in methods implementation and reporting. This protocol has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020143148).Ethics and disseminationNo ethical approval was required as only publicly available data were used. The results will be submitted as a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal, disseminated in conferences if relevant, and published as part of doctoral dissertations in Global Health at the Heidelberg University Hospital.

Project description:BackgroundCross-sectional observational studies have reported obesity and cardiometabolic co-morbidities as important predictors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization. The causal impact of these risk factors is unknown at present.MethodsWe conducted multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the observational associations between obesity traits (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference [WC]), quantitative cardiometabolic parameters (systolic blood pressure [SBP], serum glucose, serum glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol and triglycerides [TG]) and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the UK Biobank cohort. One-sample MR was performed by using the genetic risk scores of obesity and cardiometabolic traits constructed from independent datasets and the genotype and phenotype data from the UK Biobank. Two-sample MR was performed using the summary statistics from COVID-19 host genetics initiative. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to assess the risk conferred by different genetic quintiles of causative exposure traits.ResultsThe study comprised 1,211 European participants who were tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and 387,079 participants who were either untested or tested negative between 16 March 2020 to 31 May 2020. Observationally, higher BMI, WC, HbA1c and lower HDL-cholesterol were associated with higher odds of COVID-19 infection. One-sample MR analyses found causal associations between higher genetically determined BMI and LDL cholesterol and increased risk of COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.15, confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.26 and OR: 1.58, CI: 1.21-2.06, per 1 standard deviation increment in BMI and LDL cholesterol respectively). Two-sample MR produced concordant results. Cox models indicated that individuals in the higher genetic risk score quintiles of BMI and LDL were more predisposed to COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.24, CI: 1.03-1.49 and HR: 1.37, CI: 1.14-1.65, for the top vs the bottom quintile for BMI and LDL cholesterol, respectively).ConclusionWe identified causal associations between BMI, LDL cholesterol and susceptibility to COVID-19. In particular, individuals in higher genetic risk categories were predisposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. These findings support the integration of BMI into the risk assessment of COVID-19 and allude to a potential role of lipid modification in the prevention and treatment.

Dataset Information

Causal inference methods for small non-randomized studies: Methods and an application in COVID-19.

Publications

Causal inference methods for small non-randomized studies: Methods and an application in COVID-19.

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