Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mac S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7837043 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models.
Mac Stephen S Mishra Sharmistha S Ximenes Raphael R Barrett Kali K Khan Yasin A YA Naimark David M J DMJ Sander Beate B
Journal of clinical epidemiology 20201207
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Project description:Controversy exists whether the cause of death due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is directly related to the infection or to underlying conditions. The purpose of this study is to assess the relationship of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection with the cause of death in hospitalized patients.DesignRetrospective observational study; deidentified discharge summaries of deceased patients were reviewed by two intensivists and classified as coronavirus disease 2019-related (caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) or coronavirus disease 2019-unrelated (not caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or indeterminate) deaths. For classification disagreement, a separate group of three intensivists reviewed the discharge summaries and arbitrated to determine the cause of death.SettingSingle-center study performed at the University of Texas Medical Branch.PatientsAll adult patients (> 18 yr) admitted from March 10, 2020, to October 22, 2020, with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test results who expired during their hospitalization were identified.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsPatient demographics, comorbidities, prescribed medications, and ventilatory support data were collected. Comparison between groups was performed using t test and chi-square test. During the study period, 1,052 patients were admitted within 14 days of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-positive test results, of whom 100 expired during the hospitalization. Deceased patients were predominantly male and older than 65 years. Obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2) was present in 41%, and common comorbidities included hypertension (47%), diabetes (30%), and heart failure (20%). Death was classified as directly caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 85% and not caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 5%. An indeterminate cause of death in 10% was due to insufficient information or an atypical presentation. The observed interrater agreement on the cause of death classification was 81%.ConclusionsIn this single-center study, the majority of deaths in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-positive hospitalized patients were related to a typical or atypical presentation of coronavirus disease 2019 disease.
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Project description:AimsThe aim of this study is to determine the association between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and atrial fibrillation (AF) occurrence in individuals with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs).Method and resultsMulti-centre, observational, cohort study over a 100-day period during the COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-19) in the USA. Remote monitoring was used to assess AF episodes in patients with a CIED (pacemaker or defibrillator; 20 centres, 13 states). For comparison, the identical 100-day period in 2019 was used (Control). The primary outcomes were the AF burden during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the association of the pandemic with AF occurrence, as compared with 1 year prior. The secondary outcome was the association of AF occurrence with per-state COVID-19 prevalence. During COVID-19, 10 346 CIEDs with an atrial lead were monitored. There were 16 570 AF episodes of ≥6 min transmitted (16 events per 1000 patient days) with a significant increase in proportion of patients with AF episodes in high COVID-19 prevalence states compared with low prevalence states [odds ratio 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-1.48, P < 0.001]. There were significantly more AF episodes during COVID-19 compared with Control [incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.33, 95% CI 1.25-1.40, P < 0.001]. This relationship persisted for AF episodes ≥1 h (IRR 1.65, 95% CI 1.53-1.79, P < 0.001) and ≥6 h (IRR 1.54, 95% CI 1.38-1.73, P < 0.001).ConclusionDuring the first 100 days of COVID-19, a 33% increase in AF episodes occurred with a 34% increase in the proportion of patients with AF episodes observed in states with higher COVID-19 prevalence. These findings suggest a possible association between pandemic-associated social disruptions and AF in patients with CIEDs.Clinical trial registrationAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry: ACTRN12620000692932.
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