Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gibson GC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7837472 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence.
Gibson Graham Casey GC Moran Kelly R KR Reich Nicholas G NG Osthus Dave D
PLoS computational biology 20210106 1
With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the ...[more]
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