Dataset Information

Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures.

ABSTRACT:

Background

SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression.

Methods

We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute.

Results

The time-varying reproduction number (R_t) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2-3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in R_t until August 2020. Implications of state-specific R_t on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes.

Conclusions

The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.

SUBMITTER: Khailaie S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7840427 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:A new coronavirus, called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoronaVirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), has emerged from China in late 2019 and has now caused a worldwide pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 has not been described so far in a military setting. We therefore report a case series of infected patients in a recruit school in Switzerland and the herein associated challenges. METHODS:Retrospective review of COVID-19 cases among Swiss Armed Forces recruits in the early weeks of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the canton of Ticino, the southernmost canton of Switzerland. Positive cases were defined with two positive PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 from nasopharyngeal swabs. Serological testing was performed with a commercially available kit according to manufacturers' instructions. RESULTS:The first case was likely contaminated while skiing during weekend permission. He became symptomatic 4?days later, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and was put into isolation. He showed complete symptom resolution after 48?hours. Quarantine was ordered for all recruits with close contact in the past 2?days, a total of 55 persons out of 140 in the company. Seven out of nine recruits in one particular quarantine room became mildly symptomatic. SARS-CoV-2 PCR was positive in one of them. Seven days after initial diagnosis, the index patient and the other one from the quarantine retested positive for SARS-CoV-2, although they had been completely asymptomatic for over 96?hours. Serological testing revealed positive for both patients. All others showed negative IgM and IgG. CONCLUSIONS:Young healthy recruits often showed a mild course of COVID-19 with rapid symptom decline but were persistent SARS-CoV-2 carriers. This illustrates how asymptomatic patients may be responsible for covert viral transmission. An early and prolonged establishment of isolation and quarantine for patients and close contacts is essential to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, especially in the confined space of a military environment.