Dataset Information

Variational-LSTM autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe.

ABSTRACT: Modelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational-LSTM Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep Spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represents the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate a graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.

SUBMITTER: Ibrahim MR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7842932 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Variational-LSTM autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe.

Ibrahim Mohamed R MR Haworth James J Lipani Aldo A Aslam Nilufer N Cheng Tao T Christie Nicola N

PloS one 20210128 1

Modelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational-LSTM Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep Spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban po ...[more]

PMID: 33507932

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Project description:BackgroundMultiple studies have shown the utility of transcriptome-wide RNA-seq profiles as features for machine learning-based prediction of response to chemotherapy in cancer. While tumor transcriptome profiles are publicly available for thousands of tumors for many cancer types, a relatively modest number of tumor profiles are clinically annotated for response to chemotherapy. The paucity of labeled examples and the high dimension of the feature data limit performance for predicting therapeutic response using fully-supervised classification methods. Recently, multiple studies have established the utility of a deep neural network approach, the variational autoencoder (VAE), for generating meaningful latent features from original data. Here, we report the first study of a semi-supervised approach using VAE-encoded tumor transcriptome features and regularized gradient boosted decision trees (XGBoost) to predict chemotherapy drug response for five cancer types: colon, pancreatic, bladder, breast, and sarcoma.ResultsWe found: (1) VAE-encoding of the tumor transcriptome preserves the cancer type identity of the tumor, suggesting preservation of biologically relevant information; and (2) as a feature-set for supervised classification to predict response-to-chemotherapy, the unsupervised VAE encoding of the tumor's gene expression profile leads to better area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve classification performance than the original gene expression profile or the PCA principal components or the ICA components of the gene expression profile, in four out of five cancer types that we tested.ConclusionsGiven high-dimensional "omics" data, the VAE is a powerful tool for obtaining a nonlinear low-dimensional embedding; it yields features that retain biological patterns that distinguish between different types of cancer and that enable more accurate tumor transcriptome-based prediction of response to chemotherapy than would be possible using the original data or their principal components.

Dataset Information

Variational-LSTM autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe.

Publications

Variational-LSTM autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe.

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