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An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States.

ABSTRACT: The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates (IFR) using a Bayesian melding SEIR model with (2) reported case-fatality rates (CFR) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the IFR varies from 1.25% (0.39-2.16%, 90% CI) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69% in Utah (0.21-1.30%, 90% CI), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10% and 20% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3% (10.0, 55.8, 90% CI). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Sanchez-Romero M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7842943 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States.

Sánchez-Romero Miguel M di Lego Vanessa V Prskawetz Alexia A L Queiroz Bernardo B

PloS one 20210128 1

The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that comb ...[more]

PMID: 33508030

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Project description:BackgroundTraumatic brachial plexus injuries (BPIs) disproportionately affect young, able-bodied individuals. Beyond direct costs associated with medical treatment, there are far-reaching indirect costs related to disability and lost productivity. Our objective was to estimate per-patient indirect cost associated with BPI.MethodsWe estimated indirect costs as the sum of (1) short-term wage loss, (2) long-term wage loss, and (3) disability payments. Short-term (6-month) wage loss was the product of missed work days and the average earnings per day. The probability of return to work was derived from a systematic review of the literature, and long-term wage loss and disability payments were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to perform a sensitivity analysis of long-term wage loss by varying age, sex, and return to work simultaneously. Disability benefits were estimated from U.S. Social Security Administration data. All cost estimates are in 2018 U.S. dollars.ResultsA systematic review of the literature demonstrated that the patients with BPI had a mean age of 26.4 years, 90.5% were male, and manual labor was the most represented occupation. On the basis on these demographics, our base case was a 26-year-old American man working as a manual laborer prior to BPI, with an annual wage of $36,590. Monte Carlo simulation estimated a short-term wage loss of $22,740, a long-term wage loss of $737,551, and disability benefits of $353,671. The mean total indirect cost of traumatic BPI in the Monte Carlo simulations was $1,113,962 per patient over the post-injury lifetime (median: $801,723, interquartile range: $22,740 to $2,350,979). If the probability of the patient returning to work at a different, lower-paying job was doubled, the per-patient total indirect cost was $867,987.ConclusionsBPI can have a far-reaching economic impact on both individuals and society. If surgical reconstruction enables patients with a BPI to return to work, the indirect cost of this injury decreases.Level of evidenceEconomic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

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An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States.

Publications

An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States.

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