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Hypothetical blood-pressure-lowering interventions and risk of stroke and dementia.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to study the effects of hypothetical interventions on systolic blood pressure (SBP) and smoking on risk of stroke and dementia using data from 15 years of follow-up in the Rotterdam Study. We used data from 4930 individuals, aged 55-80 years, with no prior history of stroke, dementia or cognitive impairment, followed for 15 years within the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort. We defined the following sustained interventions on SBP: (1) maintaining SBP below 120 mmHg, (2) maintaining SBP below 140 mmHg, (3) reducing SBP by 10% if above 140 mmHg, (4) reducing SBP by 20% if above 140 mmHg, and a combined intervention of quitting smoking with each of these SBP-lowering strategies. We considered incident stroke and incident dementia diagnoses as outcomes. We applied the parametric g-formula to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounding. The observed 15-year risk for stroke was 10.7%. Compared to no specified intervention (i.e., the "natural course"), all interventions that involved reducing SBP were associated with a stroke risk reduction of about 10% (e.g., reducing SBP by 20% if above 140 mmHg risk ratio: 0.89; 95% CI 0.76, 1). Jointly intervening on SBP and smoking status further decreased the risk of stroke (e.g., risk ratio: 0.83; 95% CI 0.71, 0.94). None of the specified interventions were associated with a substantive change in dementia risk. Our study suggests that a joint intervention on SBP and smoking cessation during later life may reduce stroke risk, while the potential for reducing dementia risk were not observed.

SUBMITTER: Rojas-Saunero LP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7847439 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Hypothetical blood-pressure-lowering interventions and risk of stroke and dementia.

Rojas-Saunero Liliana Paloma LP Hilal Saima S Murray Eleanor J EJ Logan Roger W RW Ikram Mohammad Arfan MA Swanson Sonja A SA

European journal of epidemiology 20201127 1

We aimed to study the effects of hypothetical interventions on systolic blood pressure (SBP) and smoking on risk of stroke and dementia using data from 15 years of follow-up in the Rotterdam Study. We used data from 4930 individuals, aged 55-80 years, with no prior history of stroke, dementia or cognitive impairment, followed for 15 years within the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort. We defined the following sustained interventions on SBP: (1) maintaining SBP below 120 mmHg, (2) maintai ...[more]

PMID: 33247419

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Project description:BackgroundStroke is an important cause of death and disability worldwide. Since high blood pressure is an important risk factor for stroke and stroke recurrence, drugs that lower blood pressure might play an important role in secondary stroke prevention.ObjectivesTo investigate whether blood pressure-lowering drugs (BPLDs) started at least 48 hours after the index event are effective for the prevention of recurrent stroke, major vascular events, and dementia in people with stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). Secondary objectives were to identify subgroups of people in which BPLDs are effective, and to investigate the optimum systolic blood pressure target after stroke or TIA for preventing recurrent stroke, major vascular events, and dementia.Search methodsIn August 2017, we searched the Trials Registers of the Cochrane Stroke Group and the Cochrane Hypertension Group, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2017, Issue 8), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to August 2017), Embase Ovid (1974 to August 2017), ClinicalTrials.gov, the ISRCTN Registry, Stroke Trials Registry, Trials Central, and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform Portal.Selection criteriaRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) of BPLDs started at least 48 hours after stroke or TIA.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently screened all titles and abstracts, selected eligible trials, extracted the data, assessed risk of bias, and used GRADE to assess the quality of the evidence. If necessary, we contacted the principal investigators or corresponding authors for additional data.Main resultsWe included 11 studies involving a total of 38,742 participants: eight studies compared BPLDs versus placebo or no treatment (35,110 participants), and three studies compared different systolic blood pressure targets (3632 participants). The risk of bias varied greatly between included studies. The pooled risk ratios (RRs) of BPLDs were 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70 to 0.93; 8 RCTs; 35,110 participants; moderate-quality evidence), 0.90 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.04; 4 RCTs; 28,630 participants; high-quality evidence) for major vascular event, and 0.88 (95% CI 0.73 to 1.06; 2 RCTs; 6671 participants; high-quality evidence) for dementia. We mainly observed a reduced risk of recurrent stroke in the subgroup of participants using an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or a diuretic (I2 statistic for subgroup differences 72.1%; P = 0.006). The pooled RRs of intensive blood pressure-lowering were 0.80 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.00) for recurrent stroke and 0.58 (95% CI 0.23 to 1.46) for major vascular event.Authors' conclusionsOur results support the use of BPLDs in people with stroke or TIA for reducing the risk of recurrent stroke. Current evidence is primarily derived from trials studying an ACE inhibitor or a diuretic. No definite conclusions can be drawn from current evidence regarding an optimal systolic blood pressure target after stroke or TIA.

Project description:BackgroundClinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level.Methods and findingsWe used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD.ConclusionsA blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.

Project description:ImportanceThe benefit of blood pressure lowering for the prevention of dementia or cognitive impairment is unclear.ObjectiveTo determine the association of blood pressure lowering with dementia or cognitive impairment.Data sources and study selectionSearch of PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL for randomized clinical trials published from database inception through December 31, 2019, that evaluated the association of blood pressure lowering on cognitive outcomes. The control groups consisted of either placebo, alternative antihypertensive agents, or higher blood pressure targets.Data extraction and synthesisData were screened and extracted independently by 2 authors. Random-effects meta-analysis models were used to report pooled treatment effects and CIs.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was dementia or cognitive impairment. The secondary outcomes were cognitive decline and changes in cognitive test scores.ResultsFourteen randomized clinical trials were eligible for inclusion (96 158 participants), of which 12 reported the incidence of dementia (or composite of dementia and cognitive impairment [3 trials]) on follow-up and were included in the primary meta-analysis, 8 reported cognitive decline, and 8 reported changes in cognitive test scores. The mean (SD) age of trial participants was 69 (5.4) years and 40 617 (42.2%) were women. The mean systolic baseline blood pressure was 154 (14.9) mm Hg and the mean diastolic blood pressure was 83.3 (9.9) mm Hg. The mean duration of follow-up was 49.2 months. Blood pressure lowering with antihypertensive agents compared with control was significantly associated with a reduced risk of dementia or cognitive impairment (12 trials; 92 135 participants) (7.0% vs 7.5% of patients over a mean trial follow-up of 4.1 years; odds ratio [OR], 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.98]; absolute risk reduction, 0.39% [95% CI, 0.09%-0.68%]; I2 = 0.0%) and cognitive decline (8 trials) (20.2% vs 21.1% of participants over a mean trial follow-up of 4.1 years; OR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]; absolute risk reduction, 0.71% [95% CI, 0.19%-1.2%]; I2 = 36.1%). Blood pressure lowering was not significantly associated with a change in cognitive test scores.Conclusions and relevanceIn this meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials, blood pressure lowering with antihypertensive agents compared with control was significantly associated with a lower risk of incident dementia or cognitive impairment.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:In many current guidelines, blood pressure (BP)-lowering drug treatment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is based on absolute risk. However, in clinical practice, therapeutic decisions are often based on BP levels alone. We sought to investigate which approach was superior by conducting a post hoc analysis of the Australian National Blood Pressure (ANBP) cohort, a seminal study establishing the efficacy of BP lowering in 'mild hypertensive' persons. DESIGN:A post hoc subgroup analysis of the ANBP trial results by baseline absolute risk tertile. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:3244 participants aged 35-69 years in a community-based randomised placebo controlled trial of blood pressure-lowering medication. INTERVENTIONS:Chlorothiazide500?mg versus placebo. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:All-cause mortality and non-fatal events (non-fatal CVD, congestive cardiac failure, renal failure, hypertensive retinopathy or encephalopathy). RESULTS:Treatment effects were assessed by HR, absolute risk reduction and number needed to treat. Participants had an average 5-year CVD risk in the intermediate range (10.5±6.5) with moderately elevated BP (mean 159/103?mmHg) and were middle aged (52±8 years). In a subgroup analysis, the relative effects (HR) and absolute effects (absolute risk reduction and number needed to treat) did not statistically differ across the three risk groups except for the absolute benefit in all-cause mortality (p for heterogeneity=0.04). With respect to absolute benefit, drug treatment significantly reduced the number of events in the high-risk group regarding any event with a number needed to treat of 18 (10 to 64), death from any cause with 45 (25 to 196) and major CVD events with 23 (12 to 193). CONCLUSION:Our analysis confirms that the benefit of treatment was substantial only in the high-risk tertile, reaffirming the rationale of treating elevated blood pressure in the setting of all risk factors rather than in isolation.

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Hypothetical blood-pressure-lowering interventions and risk of stroke and dementia.

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Hypothetical blood-pressure-lowering interventions and risk of stroke and dementia.

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