Dataset Information

Predicting mortality risk on dialysis and conservative care: development and internal validation of a prediction tool for older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Conservative care (CC) may be a valid alternative to dialysis for certain older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A model that predicts patient prognosis on both treatment pathways could be of value in shared decision-making. Therefore, the aim is to develop a prediction tool that predicts the mortality risk for the same patient for both dialysis and CC from the time of treatment decision.

Methods

CKD Stage 4/5 patients aged ?70?years, treated at a single centre in the Netherlands, were included between 2004 and 2016. Predictors were collected at treatment decision and selected based on literature and an expert panel. Outcome was 2-year mortality. Basic and extended logistic regression models were developed for both the dialysis and CC groups. These models were internally validated with bootstrapping. Model performance was assessed with discrimination and calibration.

Results

In total, 366 patients were included, of which 126 chose CC. Pre-selected predictors for the basic model were age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, malignancy and cardiovascular disease. Discrimination was moderate, with optimism-corrected C-statistics ranging from 0.675 to 0.750. Calibration plots showed good calibration.

Conclusions

A prediction tool that predicts 2-year mortality was developed to provide older advanced CKD patients with individualized prognosis estimates for both dialysis and CC. Future studies are needed to test whether our findings hold in other CKD populations. Following external validation, this prediction tool could be used to compare a patient's prognosis on both dialysis and CC, and help to inform treatment decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Ramspek CL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7857791 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Predicting mortality risk on dialysis and conservative care: development and internal validation of a prediction tool for older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease.

Ramspek Chava L CL Verberne Wouter R WR van Buren Marjolijn M Dekker Friedo W FW Bos Willem Jan W WJW van Diepen Merel M

Clinical kidney journal 20200317 1

<h4>Background</h4>Conservative care (CC) may be a valid alternative to dialysis for certain older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A model that predicts patient prognosis on both treatment pathways could be of value in shared decision-making. Therefore, the aim is to develop a prediction tool that predicts the mortality risk for the same patient for both dialysis and CC from the time of treatment decision.<h4>Methods</h4>CKD Stage 4/5 patients aged ≥70 years, treated at a si ...[more]

PMID: 33564418

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Conservative care is argued to be a reasonable treatment alternative for dialysis in older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, comparisons are scarce and generally focus on survival only. Comparative data on more patient-relevant outcomes are needed to truly foster shared decision-making on an individual level, and cost comparison is needed to assess value of care. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective observational single-center cohort study in 366 patients aged ≥70 years with advanced CKD, who chose dialysis (n = 240) or conservative care (n = 126) after careful counselling by a multidisciplinary team in a non-academic teaching hospital in The Netherlands. Using a value-based health care approach (value = outcomes/cost): survival, health-related quality of life-cross-sectionally assessed with the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form™-treatment burden, and treatment costs were evaluated. RESULTS:The overall survival benefit of patients on a dialysis pathway compared with patients on conservative care diminished or lost significance in patients aged ≥80 years or with severe comorbidity. There were no differences between patients managed conservatively and dialysis patients on physical and mental health summary scores (all P > 0.1). Patients on conservative care had 352.7 hospital free days per year versus 282.7 in patients on a dialysis pathway, calculated from treatment decision (adjusted incidence rate ratio: 1.15, 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.21, P < 0.001). Annual treatment costs were lower in patients on conservative care (adjusted cost ratio: 0.43, 95% confidence interval: 0.28 to 0.67, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:In this study, conservative care is shown to be a viable treatment option in older patients with advanced CKD, particularly in the oldest old and those with severe comorbidity. By achieving similar outcomes at lower treatment burden and treatment costs, value was generated for older patients choosing conservative care and society.

Project description:BackgroundOlder adults with chronic kidney disease stage 5 may be offered a choice between dialysis and conservative management. Few studies have explored patients' reasons for choosing conservative management and none have compared the views of those who have chosen different treatments across renal units.Study designQualitative study with semistructured interviews.Settings & participantsPatients 75 years or older recruited from 9 renal units. Units were chosen to reflect variation in the scale of delivery of conservative management.MethodologySemistructured interviews audiorecorded and transcribed verbatim.Analytical approachData were analyzed using thematic analysis.Results42 interviews were completed, 4 to 6 per renal unit. Patients were sampled from those receiving dialysis, those preparing for dialysis, and those choosing conservative management. 14 patients in each group were interviewed. Patients who had chosen different treatments held varying beliefs about what dialysis could offer. The information that patients reported receiving from clinical staff differed between units. Patients from units with a more established conservative management pathway were more aware of conservative management, less often believed that dialysis would guarantee longevity, and more often had discussed the future with staff. Some patients receiving conservative management reported that they would have dialysis if they became unwell in the future, indicating the conditional nature of their decision.LimitationsRecruitment of older adults with frailty and comorbid conditions was difficult and therefore transferability of findings to this population is limited.ConclusionsOlder adults with chronic kidney disease stage 5 who have chosen different treatment options have contrasting beliefs about the likely outcomes of dialysis for those who are influenced by information provided by renal units. Supporting renal staff in discussing conservative management as a valid alternative to dialysis for a subset of patients will aid informed decision making. There is a need for better evidence about conservative management to support shared decision making for older people with chronic kidney failure.

Project description:BackgroundMany older patients approaching end-stage kidney disease have to decide whether to go for dialysis or non-dialytic conservative care (CC). Shared decision-making is recommended to align the treatment plan with the patient's preferences and values. Little is known about older patients' experiences with shared decision-making on dialysis or CC.MethodsWe performed a survey study, in collaboration with the Dutch Kidney Patients Association, in 99 patients aged ≥70 years who had chosen dialysis (n = 75) or CC (n = 24) after a shared decision-making process involving an experienced multidisciplinary team.ResultsPatients stated to be overall satisfied with the shared decision-making process (% with score 6-10 on 11-point Likert scale, dialysis versus CC: 93% vs. 91%, P = 0.06), and treatment decision (87% vs. 91%, P = 0.03). However, patients also reported negative experiences, especially those who had chosen dialysis. Such negative experiences were related to the timing, informing, and level of decision-making being shared. More patients who selected dialysis indicated to have felt forced to make a decision, mostly due to the circumstances, such as their deteriorating health or kidney function, or by their nephrologist (31% vs. 5%, P = 0.01). Also, patients who selected dialysis mentioned a perceived lack of choice as most common reason for choosing dialysis, and 55% considered their own opinion as most important rather than their nephrologists' or relatives' opinion compared to 90% of the patients who had chosen CC (P = 0.02). A subset of patients who had chosen dialysis still doubted their treatment decision compared to no patient who had chosen CC (17% vs. 0%, P = 0.03).ConclusionsOlder patients reported contrasting experiences with shared decision-making on dialysis or CC. Despite high overall satisfaction, the underlying negative experiences illustrate important but modifiable barriers to an optimal shared decision-making process.

Project description:Background and objectivesOutcomes of older patients with ESRD undergoing RRT or conservative management (CM) are uncertain. Adequate survival data, specifically of older patients, are needed for proper counseling. We compared survival of older renal patients choosing either CM or RRT.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsA retrospective survival analysis was performed of a single-center cohort in a nonacademic teaching hospital in The Netherlands from 2004 to 2014. Patients with ESRD ages ≥70 years old at the time that they opted for CM or RRT were included. Patients with acute on chronic renal failure needing immediate start of dialysis were excluded.ResultsIn total, 107 patients chose CM, and 204 chose RRT. Patients choosing CM were older (mean±SD: 83±4.5 versus 76±4.4 years; P<0.001). The Davies comorbidity scores did not differ significantly between both groups. Median survival of those choosing RRT was higher than those choosing CM from time of modality choice (median; 75th to 25th percentiles: 3.1, 1.5-6.9 versus 1.5, 0.7-3.0 years; log-rank test: P<0.001) and all other starting points (P<0.001 in all patients). However, the survival advantage of patients choosing RRT was no longer observed in patients ages ≥80 years old (median; 75th to 25th percentiles: 2.1, 1.5-3.4 versus 1.4, 0.7-3.0 years; log-rank test: P=0.08). The survival advantage was also substantially reduced in patients ages ≥70 years old with Davies comorbidity scores of ≥3, particularly with cardiovascular comorbidity, although the RRT group maintained its survival advantage at the 5% significance level (median; 75th to 25th percentiles: 1.8, 0.7-4.1 versus 1.0, 0.6-1.4 years; log-rank test: P=0.02).ConclusionsIn this single-center observational study, there was no statistically significant survival advantage among patients ages ≥80 years old choosing RRT over CM. Comorbidity was associated with a lower survival advantage. This provides important information for decision making in older patients with ESRD. CM could be a reasonable alternative to RRT in selected patients.

Project description:ImportanceCurrent guidelines lack consensus regarding the treatment of patients who may not benefit from dialysis; this lack of consensus may be associated with the substantial variation in dialysis use and outcomes across health care facilities.ObjectiveTo assess the degree to which variation in dialysis use and mortality was associated with patient rather than facility characteristics and to distinguish which features identified the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facilities with high rates of dialysis use.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study analyzed data of veterans with stage 3 or 4 chronic kidney disease that progressed to kidney failure between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2014. These patients received care from VA facilities across the US. Data sources included laboratory and administrative records from the VA, Medicare, and United States Renal Data System. Data analysis was conducted from August 1, 2019, to September 1, 2020.ExposuresThe primary exposure was the VA facility in which patients received most of their care before the onset of incident kidney failure defined as the first occurrence of either a sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or the initiation of maintenance dialysis.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcomes were dialysis use and mortality within 2 years of incident kidney failure. Median rate ratio was used to quantify facility-level variation, and variance partition coefficient was used to quantify the sources of unexplained variation.ResultsThe cohort included 8695 older veterans with a mean (SD) age of 78.8 (7.5) years who were predominantly male (8573 [99%]) and White (6102 [70%]) individuals treated at 108 VA facilities. The observed frequency of dialysis use across facilities ranged from 25.0% to 81.4%, with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) rate of 51.7% (48.4%-60.0%). The observed frequency of mortality across facilities ranged from 27.2% to 60.0%, with a median (IQR) rate of 45.2% (41.2%-48.6%). The median rate ratio (adjusted for multiple patient and facility characteristics) was 1.40 for dialysis use and 1.08 for mortality. The unexplained variation in both outcomes mainly derived from patient characteristics rather than facility characteristics. No correlation was found between dialysis use and mortality at the facility level (correlation coefficient = 0.03).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found sizable variation in dialysis use for older adults that was poorly correlated with facility-level mortality rates and was not accounted for by differences in measured patient and facility characteristics. These findings suggest opportunities to improve the degree to which dialysis use practices align with the values, goals, and preferences of older adults with kidney failure.

Dataset Information

Predicting mortality risk on dialysis and conservative care: development and internal validation of a prediction tool for older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting mortality risk on dialysis and conservative care: development and internal validation of a prediction tool for older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets