Dataset Information

Development and Validation of a Sepsis Mortality Risk Score for Sepsis-3 Patients in Intensive Care Unit.

ABSTRACT: Background: Many severity scores are widely used for clinical outcome prediction for critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, for patients identified by sepsis-3 criteria, none of these have been developed. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk stratification score for mortality prediction in sepsis-3 patients. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we employed the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database for model development and the eICU database for external validation. We identified septic patients by sepsis-3 criteria on day 1 of ICU entry. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) technique was performed to select predictive variables. We also developed a sepsis mortality prediction model and associated risk stratification score. We then compared model discrimination and calibration with other traditional severity scores. Results: For model development, we enrolled a total of 5,443 patients fulfilling the sepsis-3 criteria. The 30-day mortality was 16.7%. With 5,658 septic patients in the validation set, there were 1,135 deaths (mortality 20.1%). The score had good discrimination in development and validation sets (area under curve: 0.789 and 0.765). In the validation set, the calibration slope was 0.862, and the Brier value was 0.140. In the development dataset, the score divided patients according to mortality risk of low (3.2%), moderate (12.4%), high (30.7%), and very high (68.1%). The corresponding mortality in the validation dataset was 2.8, 10.5, 21.1, and 51.2%. As shown by the decision curve analysis, the score always had a positive net benefit. Conclusion: We observed moderate discrimination and calibration for the score termed Sepsis Mortality Risk Score (SMRS), allowing stratification of patients according to mortality risk. However, we still require further modification and external validation.

SUBMITTER: Zhang K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7859108 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Validation of a Sepsis Mortality Risk Score for Sepsis-3 Patients in Intensive Care Unit.

Zhang Kai K Zhang Shufang S Cui Wei W Hong Yucai Y Zhang Gensheng G Zhang Zhongheng Z

Frontiers in medicine 20210121

<b>Background:</b> Many severity scores are widely used for clinical outcome prediction for critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, for patients identified by sepsis-3 criteria, none of these have been developed. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk stratification score for mortality prediction in sepsis-3 patients. <b>Methods:</b> In this retrospective cohort study, we employed the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database for mod ...[more]

PMID: 33553206

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Project description:ObjectiveTo develop and validate a rapid invasive candidiasis (IC)-predictive risk score in intensive care unit (ICU) patients by incorporating clinical risk factors and parameters of lymphocyte subtyping.MethodsA prospective cohort study of 1054 consecutive patients admitted to ICU was performed. We assessed the clinical characteristics and parameters of lymphocyte subtyping at the onset of clinical signs of infection and their potential influence on IC diagnosis. A risk score for early diagnosis of IC was developed and validated based on a logistic regression model.ResultsSixty-nine patients (6.5%) had IC. Patients in the cohort (N=1054) were randomly divided into a development (n=703) or validation (n=351) cohorts. Multivariate logistic regression identified that CD8+ T-cell count ≤143 cells/mm3, receipt of high-dose corticosteroids (dose ≥50 mg prednisolone equivalent), receipt of carbapenem/tigecycline, APACHE II score≥15, (1,3)-β-D-glucan (BDG) positivity and emergency gastrointestinal/hepatobiliary (GIT/HPB) surgery were significantly related with IC. IC risk score was calculated using the following formula: CD8+ T-cell count ≤143 cells/mm3 + receipt of high-dose corticosteroids + receipt of carbapenem/tigecycline + APACHE II score ≥15 + BDG positivity + emergency GIT/HPB surgery ×2. The risk scoring system had good discrimination and calibration with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.820 and 0.807, and a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.356 and P=0.531 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. We categorized patients into three groups according to risk score: low risk (0-2 points), moderate risk (3-4 points) and high risk (5-7 points). IC risk was highly and positively associated with risk score (Pearson contingency coefficient=0.852, P for trend=0.007). Candida score had a moderate predicting efficacy for early IC diagnosis. The AUROC of the risk score was significantly larger than that of Candida score (0.820 versus 0.711, Z=2.013, P=0.044).ConclusionsThe predictive scoring system, which used both clinical factors and CD8+ T cell count, served as a clinically useful predictive model for rapid IC diagnosis in this cohort of ICU patients.Clinical trial registrationchictr.org.cn, identifier ChiCTR-ROC-17010750.

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Dataset Information

Development and Validation of a Sepsis Mortality Risk Score for Sepsis-3 Patients in Intensive Care Unit.

Publications

Development and Validation of a Sepsis Mortality Risk Score for Sepsis-3 Patients in Intensive Care Unit.

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