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Officially Confirmed COVID-19 and Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy in Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT: Reporting discrepancies between officially confirmed COVID-19 death counts and unreported COVID-19-like illness (CLI) death counts have been evident across the world, including Bangladesh. Publicly available data were used to explore the differences between confirmed COVID-19 death counts and deaths with possible COVID-19 symptoms between March 2, 2020 and August 22, 2020. Unreported CLI death counts totaled more than half of the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the study period. However, the reporting authority did not consider CLI deaths, which might produce incomplete and unreliable COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. All deaths with possible COVID-19 symptoms need to be included in provisional death counts to better estimate the COVID-19 mortality rate and to develop data-driven COVID-19 response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare a comprehensive guideline for reporting COVID-19 deaths.

SUBMITTER: Ahamad MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7866341 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Officially Confirmed COVID-19 and Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy in Bangladesh.

Ahamad Mazbahul G MG Tanin Fahian F Talukder Byomkesh B Ahmed Monir U MU

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20201214 2

Reporting discrepancies between officially confirmed COVID-19 death counts and unreported COVID-19-like illness (CLI) death counts have been evident across the world, including Bangladesh. Publicly available data were used to explore the differences between confirmed COVID-19 death counts and deaths with possible COVID-19 symptoms between March 2, 2020 and August 22, 2020. Unreported CLI death counts totaled more than half of the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the study period. However, ...[more]

PMID: 33319740

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Project description:Background and objectivesCoronavirus disease 2019 is spreading rapidly across the world. This study aimed to assess the characteristics of kidney injury and its association with disease progression and death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsThis is a retrospective study. Two representative cohorts were included. Cohort 1 involved severe and critical patients with coronavirus disease 2019 from Wuhan, China. Cohort 2 was all patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Shenzhen city (Guangdong province, China). Any kidney injury was defined as the presence of any of the following: hematuria, proteinuria, in-hospital AKI, or prehospital AKI. AKI was defined according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) creatinine criteria. The primary outcome was death at the end of follow-up. The secondary outcome was progression to critical illness during the study period.ResultsA total of 555 patients were enrolled; 42% of the cases (229 of 549) were detected with any kidney injury, 33% of the cases (174 of 520) were detected with proteinuria, 22% of the cases (112 of 520) were detected with hematuria, and 6% of the cases (29 of 520) were detected with AKI. Of the 29 patients with AKI, 21 cases were recognized as in-hospital AKI, and eight were recognized as prehospital AKI. Altogether, 27 (5%) patients died at the end of follow-up. The death rate was 11% (20 of 174) in patients with proteinuria, 16% (18 of 112) in patients with hematuria, and 41% (12 of 29) in the AKI settings. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that proteinuria (hazard ratio, 4.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 15.94), hematuria (hazard ratio, 4.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.61 to 13.81), and in-hospital AKI (hazard ratio, 6.84; 95% confidence interval, 2.42 to 19.31) were associated with death. Among the 520 patients with noncritical illness at admission, proteinuria (hazard ratio, 2.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 5.56) and hematuria (hazard ratio, 2.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 5.08) were found to be associated with progression to critical illness during the study period.ConclusionsKidney injury is common in coronavirus disease 2019, and it is associated with poor clinical outcomes.PodcastThis article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2020_09_18_CJN04780420.mp3.

Project description:AbstractThe coronavirus (COVID-19) disease outbreak was a public health emergency of international concern which eventually evolved into a pandemic. Nigeria was locked down in March, 2020 as the country battled to contain the spread of the disease. By August 2020, phase-by-phase easing of the lockdown was commenced and university students will soon return for academic activities. This study undertakes some epidemiological analysis of the Nigerian COVID-19 data to help the government and university administrators make informed decisions on the safety of personnel and students.The COVID-19 data on confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered were obtained from the website of the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) from April 2, 2020 to August 24, 2020. The infection rate, prevalence, ratio, cause-specific death rate, and case recovery rate were used to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of the pandemic in Nigeria. Exponential smoothing was adopted in modeling the time series data and forecasting the pandemic in Nigeria up to January 31, 2021.The results indicated that the pandemic had infection rate of at most 3 infections per 1 million per day from April to August 2020. The death rate was 5 persons per 1 million during the period of study while recovery rate was 747 persons per 1000 infections. Analysis of forecast data showed steady but gradual decrease in the daily infection rate and death rate and substantial increase in the recovery rate, 975 recoveries per 1000 infections.In general, the epidemiological attributes of the pandemic from the original data and the forecast data indicated optimism in the decrease in the rate of infection and death in the future. Moreover, the infection rate, prevalence and death rate in January 2021 coincided with the predictions based on the analysis. Therefore, the Nigerian government is encouraged to allow universities in the country to reopen while university administrators set up the necessary protocols for strict adherence to safety measures.

Dataset Information

Officially Confirmed COVID-19 and Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy in Bangladesh.

Publications

Officially Confirmed COVID-19 and Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy in Bangladesh.

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