Dataset Information

A new 7-gene survival score assay for pancreatic cancer patient prognosis prediction.

ABSTRACT: Gene expression features that are valuable for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) prognosis are still largely unknown. We aimed to explore pivotal molecular signatures for PDAC progression and establish an efficient survival score to predict PDAC prognosis. Overall, 163 overlapping genes were identified from three statistical methods, including differentially expressed genes (DEGs), coexpression network analysis (WGCNA), and target genes for miRNAs that were significantly related to PDAC patients' overall survival (OS). Then, according to the optimal value of the cross-validation curve (lambda = 0.031), 7 non-zero coefficients (ARNTL2, DSG3, PTPRR, ANLN, S100A14, ANKRD22, and TSPAN7) were selected to establish a prognostic prediction model of PDAC patients. We further confirmed the expression level of 7 genes using RT-PCR, western blot, and immunohistochemistry staining in PDAC patients' tissues. Our results showed that the ROC curve of the 7-mRNA model indicated good predictive ability for 1- and 2-year OS in three datasets (TCGA: 0.71, 0.69; ICGC: 0.8, 0.74; GEO batch: 0.61, 0.7, respectively). The hazard ratio (HR) of the low-risk group had a similar significant result (TCGA: HR = 0.3723; ICGC: HR = 0.2813; GEO batch: HR = 0.4999; all P < 0.001). Furthermore, Log-rank test results in three cohorts showed that the 7-mRNA assay excellently predicted the prognosis and metastasis, especially in TNM stage I&II subgroups of PDAC. In conclusion, the strong validation of our 7-mRNA signature indicates the promising effectiveness of its clinical application, especially in patients with TNM stages I&II.

SUBMITTER: Luo L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7868749 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A new 7-gene survival score assay for pancreatic cancer patient prognosis prediction.

Luo Lisi L Li Yufang Y Huang Chumei C Lin Yujing Y Su Yonghui Y Cen Hong H Chen Yutong Y Peng Siqi S Ren Tianyi T Xie Rongzhi R Zeng Linjuan L

American journal of cancer research 20210201 2

Gene expression features that are valuable for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) prognosis are still largely unknown. We aimed to explore pivotal molecular signatures for PDAC progression and establish an efficient survival score to predict PDAC prognosis. Overall, 163 overlapping genes were identified from three statistical methods, including differentially expressed genes (DEGs), coexpression network analysis (WGCNA), and target genes for miRNAs that were significantly related to PDAC pa ...[more]

PMID: 33575083

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Cancer survival studies are commonly analyzed using survival-time prediction models for cancer prognosis. A number of different performance metrics are used to ascertain the concordance between the predicted risk score of each patient and the actual survival time, but these metrics can sometimes conflict. Alternatively, patients are sometimes divided into two classes according to a survival-time threshold, and binary classifiers are applied to predict each patient's class. Although this approach has several drawbacks, it does provide natural performance metrics such as positive and negative predictive values to enable unambiguous assessments. METHODS: We compare the survival-time prediction and survival-time threshold approaches to analyzing cancer survival studies. We review and compare common performance metrics for the two approaches. We present new randomization tests and cross-validation methods to enable unambiguous statistical inferences for several performance metrics used with the survival-time prediction approach. We consider five survival prediction models consisting of one clinical model, two gene expression models, and two models from combinations of clinical and gene expression models. RESULTS: A public breast cancer dataset was used to compare several performance metrics using five prediction models. 1) For some prediction models, the hazard ratio from fitting a Cox proportional hazards model was significant, but the two-group comparison was insignificant, and vice versa. 2) The randomization test and cross-validation were generally consistent with the p-values obtained from the standard performance metrics. 3) Binary classifiers highly depended on how the risk groups were defined; a slight change of the survival threshold for assignment of classes led to very different prediction results. CONCLUSIONS: 1) Different performance metrics for evaluation of a survival prediction model may give different conclusions in its discriminatory ability. 2) Evaluation using a high-risk versus low-risk group comparison depends on the selected risk-score threshold; a plot of p-values from all possible thresholds can show the sensitivity of the threshold selection. 3) A randomization test of the significance of Somers' rank correlation can be used for further evaluation of performance of a prediction model. 4) The cross-validated power of survival prediction models decreases as the training and test sets become less balanced.

Project description:Although gemcitabine monotherapy is the standard treatment for advanced pancreatic cancer, patient outcome varies significantly, and a considerable number do not benefit adequately. We therefore searched for new biomarkers predictive of overall patient survival. Using LC-MS, we compared the base-line plasma proteome between 29 representative patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who died within 100 days and 31 patients who survived for more than 400 days after receiving at least two cycles of the same gemcitabine monotherapy. Identified biomarker candidates were then challenged in a larger cohort of 304 patients treated with the same protocol using reverse-phase protein microarray. Among a total of 45,277 peptide peaks, we identified 637 peaks whose intensities differed significantly between the two groups (p < 0.001, Welch's t test). Two MS peaks with the highest statistical significance (p = 2.6 x 10(-4) and p = 5.0 x 10(-4)) were revealed to be derived from alpha(1)-antitrypsin and alpha(1)-antichymotrypsin, respectively. The levels of alpha(1)-antitrypsin (p = 8.9 x 10(-8)) and alpha(1)-antichymotrypsin (p = 0.001) were significantly correlated with the overall survival of the 304 patients. We selected alpha(1)-antitrypsin (p = 0.0001), leukocyte count (p = 0.066), alkaline phosphatase (p = 8.3 x 10(-8)), and performance status (p = 0.003) using multivariate Cox regression analysis and constructed a scoring system (nomogram) that was able to identify a group of high risk patients having a short median survival time of 150 days (95% confidence interval, 123-187 days; p = 2.0 x 10(-15), log rank test). The accuracy of this model for prognostication was internally validated and showed good calibration and discrimination with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.672. In conclusion, an increased level of alpha(1)-antitrypsin is a biomarker that predicts short overall survival of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine monotherapy. Although an external validation study will be necessary, the current model may be useful for identifying patients unsuitable for the standardized therapy.

Dataset Information

A new 7-gene survival score assay for pancreatic cancer patient prognosis prediction.

Publications

A new 7-gene survival score assay for pancreatic cancer patient prognosis prediction.

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