A validation study of the 4-variable and 8-variable kidney failure risk equation in transplant recipients in the United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There is emerging evidence that the 4-variable Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) can be used for risk prediction of graft failure in transplant recipients. However, geographical validation of the 4-variable KFRE in transplant patients is lacking, as is whether the more extensive 8-variable KFRE improves predictive accuracy. This study aimed to validate the 4- and 8-variable KFRE predictions of the 5-year death-censored risk of graft failure in patients in the United Kingdom.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study involved 415 transplant recipients who had their first renal transplant between 2003 and 2015 and were under follow-up at Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust. The KFRE risk scores were calculated on variables taken 1-year post-transplant. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration plots were evaluated to determine discrimination and calibration of the 4- and 8-variable KFREs in the whole cohort as well as in a subgroup analysis of living and deceased donor recipients and in patients with an eGFR2.

Results

There were 16 graft failure events (4%) in the whole cohort. The 4- and 8-variable KFREs showed good discrimination with AUC of 0.743 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.610-0.876) and 0.751 (95% CI 0.629-0.872) respectively. In patients with an eGFR2, the 8-variable KFRE had good discrimination with an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI 0.558-0.982) but the 4-variable provided excellent discrimination in this group with an AUC of 0.817 (0.646-0.988). Calibration plots however showed poor calibration with risk scores tending to underestimate risk of graft failure in low-risk patients and overestimate risk in high-risk patients, which was seen in the primary and subgroup analyses.

Conclusions

Despite adequate discrimination, the 4- and 8-variable KFREs are imprecise in predicting graft failure in transplant recipients using data 1-year post-transplant. Larger, international studies involving diverse patient populations should be considered to corroborate these findings.

SUBMITTER: Ali I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7874608 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature