Dataset Information

Bayesian Source Attribution of Salmonella Typhimurium Isolates From Human Patients and Farm Animals in England and Wales.

ABSTRACT: The purpose of the study was to apply a Bayesian source attribution model to England and Wales based data on Salmonella Typhimurium (ST) and monophasic variants (MST), using different subtyping approaches based on sequence data. The data consisted of laboratory confirmed human cases and mainly livestock samples collected from surveillance or monitoring schemes. Three different subtyping methods were used, 7-loci Multi-Locus Sequence Typing (MLST), Core-genome MLST, and Single Nucleotide Polymorphism distance, with the impact of varying the genetic distance over which isolates would be grouped together being varied for the latter two approaches. A Bayesian frequency matching method, known as the modified Hald method, was applied to the data from each of the subtyping approaches. Pigs were found to be the main contributor to human infection for ST/MST, with approximately 60% of human cases attributed to them, followed by other mammals (mostly horses) and cattle. It was found that the use of different clustering methods based on sequence data had minimal impact on the estimates of source attribution. However, there was an impact of genetic distance over which isolates were grouped: grouping isolates which were relatively closely related increased uncertainty but tended to have a better model fit.

SUBMITTER: Arnold M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7876086 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian Source Attribution of <i>Salmonella</i> Typhimurium Isolates From Human Patients and Farm Animals in England and Wales.

Arnold Mark M Smith Richard Piers RP Tang Yue Y Guzinski Jaromir J Petrovska Liljana L

Frontiers in microbiology 20210128

The purpose of the study was to apply a Bayesian source attribution model to England and Wales based data on <i>Salmonella</i> Typhimurium (ST) and monophasic variants (MST), using different subtyping approaches based on sequence data. The data consisted of laboratory confirmed human cases and mainly livestock samples collected from surveillance or monitoring schemes. Three different subtyping methods were used, 7-loci Multi-Locus Sequence Typing (MLST), Core-genome MLST, and Single Nucleotide P ...[more]

PMID: 33584605

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Project description:Source attribution has traditionally involved combining epidemiological data with different pathogen characterisation methods, including 7-gene multi locus sequence typing (MLST) or serotyping, however, these approaches have limited resolution. In contrast, whole genome sequencing data provide an overview of the whole genome that can be used by attribution algorithms. Here, we applied a random forest (RF) algorithm to predict the primary sources of human clinical Salmonella Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) and monophasic variants (monophasic S. Typhimurium) isolates. To this end, we utilised single nucleotide polymorphism diversity in the core genome MLST alleles obtained from 1,061 laboratory-confirmed human and animal S. Typhimurium and monophasic S. Typhimurium isolates as inputs into a RF model. The algorithm was used for supervised learning to classify 399 animal S. Typhimurium and monophasic S. Typhimurium isolates into one of eight distinct primary source classes comprising common livestock and pet animal species: cattle, pigs, sheep, other mammals (pets: mostly dogs and horses), broilers, layers, turkeys, and game birds (pheasants, quail, and pigeons). When applied to the training set animal isolates, model accuracy was 0.929 and kappa 0.905, whereas for the test set animal isolates, for which the primary source class information was withheld from the model, the accuracy was 0.779 and kappa 0.700. Subsequently, the model was applied to assign 662 human clinical cases to the eight primary source classes. In the dataset, 60/399 (15.0%) of the animal and 141/662 (21.3%) of the human isolates were associated with a known outbreak of S. Typhimurium definitive type (DT) 104. All but two of the 141 DT104 outbreak linked human isolates were correctly attributed by the model to the primary source classes identified as the origin of the DT104 outbreak. A model that was run without the clonal DT104 animal isolates produced largely congruent outputs (training set accuracy 0.989 and kappa 0.985; test set accuracy 0.781 and kappa 0.663). Overall, our results show that RF offers considerable promise as a suitable methodology for epidemiological tracking and source attribution for foodborne pathogens.

Project description:Passerine salmonellosis is a well-recognized disease of birds in the order Passeriformes, which includes common songbirds such as finches and sparrows, caused by infection with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium. Previous research has suggested that some subtypes of S Typhimurium-definitive phage types (DTs) 40, 56 variant, and 160-are host adapted to passerines and that these birds may represent a reservoir of infection for humans and other animals. Here, we have used the whole-genome sequences of 11 isolates from British passerines, five isolates of similar DTs from humans and a domestic cat, and previously published S Typhimurium genomes that include similar DTs from other hosts to investigate the phylogenetic relatedness of passerine salmonellae to other S Typhimurium isolates and investigate possible genetic features of the distinct disease pathogenesis of S Typhimurium in passerines. Our results demonstrate that the 11 passerine isolates and 13 other isolates, including those from nonpasserine hosts, were genetically closely related, with a median pairwise single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) difference of 130 SNPs. These 24 isolates did not carry antimicrobial resistance genetic determinants or the S Typhimurium virulence plasmid. Although our study does not provide evidence of Salmonella transmission from passerines to other hosts, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that wild birds represent a potential reservoir of these Salmonella subtypes, and thus, sensible personal hygiene precautions should be taken when feeding or handling garden birds. IMPORTANCE:Passerine salmonellosis, caused by certain definitive phage types (DTs) of Salmonella Typhimurium, has been documented as a cause of wild passerine mortality since the 1950s in many countries, often in the vicinity of garden bird feeding stations. To gain better insight into its epidemiology and host-pathogen interactions, we sequenced the genomes of a collection of 11 isolates from wild passerine salmonellosis in England and Wales. Phylogenetic analysis showed these passerine isolates to be closely related to each other and to form a clade that is distinct from other strains of S Typhimurium, which included a multidrug-resistant isolate from invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella disease that shares the same phage type as several of the passerine isolates. Closely related to wild passerine isolates and within the same clade were four S Typhimurium isolates from humans as well as isolates from horses, poultry, cattle, an unspecified wild bird, and a domestic cat and dog with similar DTs and/or multilocus sequence types. This suggests the potential for cross-species transmission, and the genome sequences provide a valuable resource to investigate passerine salmonellosis further.

Dataset Information

Bayesian Source Attribution of Salmonella Typhimurium Isolates From Human Patients and Farm Animals in England and Wales.

Publications

Bayesian Source Attribution of <i>Salmonella</i> Typhimurium Isolates From Human Patients and Farm Animals in England and Wales.

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