Dataset Information

Metabolic Syndrome Prediction Models Using Machine Learning and Sasang Constitution Type.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Machine learning may be a useful tool for predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS), and previous studies also suggest that the risk of MetS differs according to Sasang constitution type. The present study investigated the development of MetS prediction models utilizing machine learning methods and whether the incorporation of Sasang constitution type could improve the performance of those prediction models.

Methods

Participants visiting a medical center for a health check-up were recruited in 2005 and 2006. Six kinds of machine learning were utilized (K-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, random forest, decision tree, multilayer perceptron, and support vector machine), as was conventional logistic regression. Machine learning-derived MetS prediction models with and without the incorporation of Sasang constitution type were compared to investigate whether the former would predict MetS with higher sensitivity. Age, sex, education level, marital status, body mass index, stress, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and smoking were included as potentially predictive factors.

Results

A total of 750/2,871 participants had MetS. Among the six types of machine learning methods investigated, multiplayer perceptron and support vector machine exhibited the same performance as the conventional regression method, based on the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves. The naive-Bayes method exhibited the highest sensitivity (0.49), which was higher than that of the conventional regression method (0.39). The incorporation of Sasang constitution type improved the sensitivity of all of the machine learning methods investigated except for the K-nearest neighbor method.

Conclusion

Machine learning-derived models may be useful for MetS prediction, and the incorporation of Sasang constitution type may increase the sensitivity of such models.

SUBMITTER: Park JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7886522 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Metabolic Syndrome Prediction Models Using Machine Learning and Sasang Constitution Type.

Park Ji-Eun JE Mun Sujeong S Mun Sujeong S Lee Siwoo S

Evidence-based complementary and alternative medicine : eCAM 20210208

<h4>Background</h4>Machine learning may be a useful tool for predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS), and previous studies also suggest that the risk of MetS differs according to Sasang constitution type. The present study investigated the development of MetS prediction models utilizing machine learning methods and whether the incorporation of Sasang constitution type could improve the performance of those prediction models.<h4>Methods</h4>Participants visiting a medical center for a health check-u ...[more]

PMID: 33628316

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Project description:BackgroundAccurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task. However, for different data series, the performance of these models varies. Hepatitis E, as an acute liver disease, has been a major public health problem. Which model is more appropriate for predicting the incidence of hepatitis E? In this paper, three different methods are used and the performance of the three methods is compared.MethodsAutoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), support vector machine(SVM) and long short-term memory(LSTM) recurrent neural network were adopted and compared. ARIMA was implemented by python with the help of statsmodels. SVM was accomplished by matlab with libSVM library. LSTM was designed by ourselves with Keras, a deep learning library. To tackle the problem of overfitting caused by limited training samples, we adopted dropout and regularization strategies in our LSTM model. Experimental data were obtained from the monthly incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE).ResultsBy analyzing data, we took ARIMA(1, 1, 1), ARIMA(3, 1, 2) as monthly incidence prediction model and cases number prediction model, respectively. Cross-validation and grid search were used to optimize parameters of SVM. Penalty coefficient C and kernel function parameter g were set 8, 0.125 for incidence prediction, and 22, 0.01 for cases number prediction. LSTM has 4 nodes. Dropout and L2 regularization parameters were set 0.15, 0.001, respectively. By the metrics of RMSE, we obtained 0.022, 0.0204, 0.01 for incidence prediction, using ARIMA, SVM and LSTM. And we obtained 22.25, 20.0368, 11.75 for cases number prediction, using three models. For MAPE metrics, the results were 23.5%, 21.7%, 15.08%, and 23.6%, 21.44%, 13.6%, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. For MAE metrics, the results were 0.018, 0.0167, 0.011 and 18.003, 16.5815, 9.984, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively.ConclusionsComparing ARIMA, SVM and LSTM, we found that nonlinear models(SVM, LSTM) outperform linear models(ARIMA). LSTM obtained the best performance in all three metrics of RSME, MAPE, MAE. Hence, LSTM is the most suitable for predicting hepatitis E monthly incidence and cases number.

Dataset Information

Metabolic Syndrome Prediction Models Using Machine Learning and Sasang Constitution Type.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Metabolic Syndrome Prediction Models Using Machine Learning and Sasang Constitution Type.

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