Dataset Information

The effects of numeracy and presentation format on judgments of contingency.

ABSTRACT: Covariation information can be used to infer whether a causal link plausibly exists between two dichotomous variables, and such judgments of contingency are central to many critical and everyday decisions. However, individuals do not always interpret and integrate covariation information effectively, an issue that may be compounded by limited numeracy skills, and they often resort to the use of heuristics, which can result in inaccurate judgments. This experiment investigated whether presenting covariation information in a composite bar chart increased accuracy of contingency judgments, and whether it can mitigate errors driven by low numeracy skills. Participants completed an online questionnaire, which consisted of an 11-item numeracy scale and three covariation problems that varied in level of difficulty, involving a fictitious fertilizer and its impact on whether a plant bloomed or not. Half received summary covariation information in a composite bar chart, and half in a 2 × 2 matrix that summarized event frequencies. Viewing the composite bar charts increased accuracy of individuals both high and low in numeracy, regardless of problem difficulty, resulted in more consistent judgments that were closer to the normatively correct value, and increased the likelihood of detecting the correct direction of association. Findings are consistent with prior work, suggesting that composite bar charts are an effective way to improve covariation judgment and have potential for use in the domain of health risk communication.

SUBMITTER: Cooper S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7886725 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The effects of numeracy and presentation format on judgments of contingency.

Cooper Susan S Vallée-Tourangeau Frédéric F

Memory & cognition 20210201 2

Covariation information can be used to infer whether a causal link plausibly exists between two dichotomous variables, and such judgments of contingency are central to many critical and everyday decisions. However, individuals do not always interpret and integrate covariation information effectively, an issue that may be compounded by limited numeracy skills, and they often resort to the use of heuristics, which can result in inaccurate judgments. This experiment investigated whether presenting ...[more]

PMID: 32851568

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Project description:Objective numeracy, the ability to understand and use mathematical concepts, has been related to superior decisions and life outcomes. Unknown is whether it relates to greater satisfaction in life. We investigated numeracy's relations with income satisfaction and overall life satisfaction in a diverse sample of 5,525 American adults. First, more numerate individuals had higher incomes; for every one point higher on the eight-item numeracy test, individuals reported $4,062 more in annual income, controlling for education and verbal intelligence. Combined, numeracy, education, and verbal intelligence explained 25% of the variance in income while Big-5 personality traits explained less than 4%. Further, the higher incomes associated with greater numeracy were related to more positive life evaluations (income and life satisfaction). Second, extant research also has indicated that the highly numerate compare numbers more than the less numerate. Consistent with numeracy-related income comparisons, numeracy moderated the relation between income and life evaluations, meaning that the same income was valued differently by those better and worse at math. Specifically, among those with lower incomes, the highly numerate were less satisfied than the less numerate; this effect reversed among those with higher incomes as if the highly numerate were aware of and made comparisons to others' incomes. Further, no clear income satiation point was seen among those highest in numeracy, and satiation among the least numerate appeared to occur at a point below $50,000. Third, both education and verbal intelligence related to income evaluations in similar ways, and numeracy's relations held when controlling for these other relations. Although causal claims cannot be made from cross-sectional data, these novel results indicate that numeracy may be an important factor underlying life evaluations and especially for evaluations concerning numbers such as incomes. Finally, this study adds to our understanding of education and intelligence effects in life satisfaction and happiness.

Project description:Investigations in the temporal estimation domain are quite vast in the range of milliseconds, seconds, and minutes. This study aimed to determine the psychophysical function that best describes long-range time interval estimation and evaluate the effect of numerals in duration presentation on the form of this function. Participants indicated on a line the magnitude of time intervals presented either as a number + time-unit (e.g., "9 months"; Group I), unitless numerals (e.g., "9"; Group II), or tagged future personal events (e.g., "Wedding"; Group III). The horizontal line was labeled rightward ("Very short" = >"Very long") or leftward ("Very long" = >"Very short") for Group I and II, but only rightward for Group III. None of the linear, power, logistic or logarithmic functions provided the best fit to the individual participant data in more than 50% of participants for any group. Individual power exponents were different only between the tagged personal events (Group III) and the other two groups. When the same analysis was repeated for the aggregated data, power functions provided a better fit than other tested functions in all groups with a difference in the power function parameters again between the tagged personal events and the other groups. A non-linear mixed effects analysis indicated a difference in the power function exponent between Group III and the other groups, but not between Group I and II. No effect of scale directionality was found in neither of the experiments in which scale direction was included as independent variable. These results suggest that the judgment of intervals in a number + time-unit presentation invoke, at least in part, processing mechanisms other than those used for time-domain. Consequently, we propose the use of event-tagged assessment for characterizing long-range interval representation. We also recommend that analyses in this field should not be restricted to aggregated data given the qualitative variation between participants.

Dataset Information

The effects of numeracy and presentation format on judgments of contingency.

Publications

The effects of numeracy and presentation format on judgments of contingency.

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