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Real-time prediction of COVID-19 related mortality using electronic health records.

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease with rapid human-to-human transmission caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to the exponential growth of infections, identifying patients with the highest mortality risk early is critical to enable effective intervention and prioritisation of care. Here, we present the COVID-19 early warning system (CovEWS), a risk scoring system for assessing COVID-19 related mortality risk that we developed using data amounting to a total of over 2863 years of observation time from a cohort of 66 430 patients seen at over 69 healthcare institutions. On an external cohort of 5005 patients, CovEWS predicts mortality from 78.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 76.0, 84.7%) to 69.4% (95% CI: 57.6, 75.2%) specificity at sensitivities greater than 95% between, respectively, 1 and 192?h prior to mortality events. CovEWS could enable earlier intervention, and may therefore help in preventing or mitigating COVID-19 related mortality.

SUBMITTER: Schwab P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7886884 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Real-time prediction of COVID-19 related mortality using electronic health records.

Schwab Patrick P Mehrjou Arash A Parbhoo Sonali S Celi Leo Anthony LA Hetzel Jürgen J Hofer Markus M Schölkopf Bernhard B Bauer Stefan S

Nature communications 20210216 1

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease with rapid human-to-human transmission caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to the exponential growth of infections, identifying patients with the highest mortality risk early is critical to enable effective intervention and prioritisation of care. Here, we present the COVID-19 early warning system (CovEWS), a risk scoring system for assessing COVID-19 related mortality risk that we developed ...[more]

PMID: 33594046

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Project description:PurposePatients with cancer often have compromised immune system which can lead to worse COVID-19 outcomes. The purpose of this study is to assess the association between COVID-19 outcomes and existing cancer-specific characteristics.Patients and methodsPatients aged 18 or older with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between June 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020, were identified (n = 314 004) from the Optum® de-identified COVID-19 Electronic Health Record (EHR) derived from more than 700 hospitals and 7000 clinics in the United States. To allow sufficient observational time, patients with less than one year of medical history in the EHR dataset before their COVID-19 tests were excluded (n = 42 365). Assessed COVID-19 outcomes including all-cause 30-day mortality, hospitalization, ICU admission, and ventilator use, which were compared using relative risks (RRs) according to cancer status and treatments.ResultsAmong 271 639 patients with COVID-19, 18 460 had at least one cancer diagnosis: 8034 with a history of cancer and 10 426 with newly diagnosed cancer within one year of COVID-19 infection. Patients with a cancer diagnosis were older and more likely to be male, white, Medicare beneficiaries, and have higher prevalences of chronic conditions. Cancer patients had higher risks for 30-day mortality (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.14, P = 0.028) and hospitalization (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, P = 0.006) but without significant differences in ICU admission and ventilator use compared to non-cancer patients. Recent cancer diagnoses were associated with higher risks for worse COVID-19 outcomes (RR for mortality 1.17, 95% CI 1.08-1.25, P<0.001 and RR for hospitalization 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14, P<0.001), particularly among recent metastatic (stage IV), hematological, liver and lung cancers compared with the non-cancer group. Among COVID-19 patients with recent cancer diagnosis, mortality was associated with chemotherapy or radiation treatments within 3 months before COVID-19. Age, black patients, Medicare recipients, South geographic region, cardiovascular, diabetes, liver, and renal diseases were also associated with increased mortality.Conclusions and relevanceIndividuals with cancer had higher risks for 30-day mortality and hospitalization after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to patients without cancer. More specifically, patients with a cancer diagnosis within 1 year and those receiving active treatment were more vulnerable to worse COVID-19 outcomes.

Dataset Information

Real-time prediction of COVID-19 related mortality using electronic health records.

Publications

Real-time prediction of COVID-19 related mortality using electronic health records.

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