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Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France.

ABSTRACT: As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children's role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Under a scenario with stable epidemic activity if schools were closed, reopening pre-schools and primary schools would lead to up to 76% [67, 84]% occupation of ICU beds if no other school level reopened, or if middle and high schools reopened later. Immediately reopening all school levels may overwhelm the ICU system. Priority should be given to pre- and primary schools allowing younger children to resume learning and development, whereas full attendance in middle and high schools is not recommended for stable or increasing epidemic activity. Large-scale test and trace is required to keep the epidemic under control. Ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening of schools, limited attendance, and strong adoption of preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown.

SUBMITTER: Di Domenico L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7887250 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France.

Di Domenico Laura L Pullano Giulia G Sabbatini Chiara E CE Boëlle Pierre-Yves PY Colizza Vittoria V

Nature communications 20210216 1

As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children's role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Und ...[more]

PMID: 33594076

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Project description:BackgroundTo suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate intervention to other social distancing measures, and little research exists on the effect of school opening during a pandemic.ObjectiveThis study aimed to model the effect of opening kindergartens and the schools in Norway in terms of a change in the reproduction number (R). A secondary objective was to assess if we can use the estimated R after school openings to infer the rates of transmission between children in schools.MethodsWe used an individual-based model (IBM) to assess the reopening of kindergartens and schools in two Norwegian cities, Oslo, the Norwegian capital, with a population of approximately 680 000, and Tromsø, which is the largest city in Northern Norway, with a population of approximately 75 000. The model uses demographic information and detailed data about the schools in both cities. We carried out an ensemble study to obtain robust results in spite of the considerable uncertainty that remains about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.ResultsWe found that reopening of Norwegian kindergartens and schools are associated with a change in R of 0.10 (95%CI 0.04-0.16) and 0.14 (95%CI 0.01-0.25) in the two cities under investigation if the in-school transmission rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus are equal to what has previously been estimated for influenza pandemics.ConclusionWe found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the pandemic. Consequently, current R-estimates are insufficiently accurate for determining the transmission rates in schools. For countries that have closed schools, planned interventions, such as the opening of selected schools, can be useful to infer general knowledge about children-to-children transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Project description:BackgroundSchool closures in response to the COVID-19 impacted children's education, protection, and wellbeing. After understanding these impacts and that children were not super spreaders, countries including Ethiopia decided to reopen schools with specified preconditions. But when deciding to reopen schools, the benefits and risks across education, public health and socio-economic factors have to be evaluated. However, there was information gap on status of schools as per preconditions. Hence, this study was designed to investigate status of schools in Southern Ethiopia.MethodsSchool based cross-sectional study was conducted in October 2020 in Southern Ethiopia. Sample of 430 schools were included. National school reopening guideline was used to develop checklist for assessment. Data was collected by public health experts at regional emergency operation center. Descriptive analysis was performed to summarize data.ResultsA total of 430 schools were included. More than two thirds, 298 (69.3%), of schools were from rural areas while 132 (30.7%) were from urban settings. The general infection prevention and water, sanitation and hygiene (IPC-WASH) status of schools were poor and COVID-19 specific preparations were inadequate to meet national preconditions to reopen schools during the pandemic. Total score from 24 items observed ranged from 3 to 22 points with mean score of 11.75 (SD±4.02). No school scored 100% and only 41 (9.5%) scored above 75% while 216 (50.2%%) scored below half point that is 12 items.ConclusionBoth the basic and COVID-19 specific IPC-WASH status of schools were inadequate to implement national school reopening preconditions and general standards. Some of strategies planned to accommodate teaching process and preconditions maximized inequalities in education. Although COVID-19 impact lessened due to vaccination and other factors, it is rational to consider fulfilling water and basic sanitation facilities to schools to prevent communicable diseases of public health importance.

Dataset Information

Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France.

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Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France.

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