Dataset Information

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes.

Objective

Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time.

Setting

Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis.

Methods

Regression was used to find the relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates.

Results

Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2 = 0.610, p = 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature is on SARS-CoV-2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase is associated with a 1% decrease-and a one degree decrease could be associated with a 3.7% increase-in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. This model of the effect of decreasing temperatures can only be verified over time as the pandemic proceeds through colder months.

Conclusions

The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.

SUBMITTER: Kaplin A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7888632 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Kaplin Adam A Junker Caesar C Kumar Anupama A Ribeiro Mary Anne MA Yu Eileen E Wang Michael M Smith Ted T Rai Shesh N SN Bhatnagar Aruni A

PloS one 20210217 2

<h4>Importance</h4>Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes.<h4>Objective</h4>Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time.<h4>Setting</h4>Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria h ...[more]

PMID: 33596214

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Project description:BackgroundThe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a serious public health concern worldwide. Certain regions of the globe were severely affected in terms of prevalence and mortality than other. Although the cause for this pattern is not clearly understood, lessons learned from previous epidemics and emerging evidences suggest the major role of ecological factors like ambient air pollutants (AAP) and meteorological parameters in increased COVID-19 incidence. The present study aimed to understand the impact of these factors on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and their associated mortality in major cities of India.MethodsThis study used secondary AAP, meteorological and COVID-19 data from official websites for the period January-November 2020, which were divided into Pre-lockdown (January-March 2020), Phase I (April to June 2020) and Phase II (July to November 2020) in India. After comprehensive screening, five major cities that includes 48 CPCB monitoring stations collecting daily data of ambient temperature, particulate matter PM2.5 and 10 were analysed. Spearman and Kendall's rank correlation test was performed to understand the association between SARS-CoV-2 transmission and AAP and, meteorological variables. Similarly, case fatality rate (CFR) was determined to compute the correlation between AAP and COVID-19 related morality.ResultsThe level of air pollutants in major cities were significantly reduced during Phase I compared to Pre-lock down and increased upon Phase II in all the cities. During the Phase II in Delhi, the strong significant positive correlation was observed between the AAP and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Mumbai AAP levels were moderate and no correlation was noticed. The relation between AT and SARS-CoV-2 transmission was inconclusive as both positive and negative correlation observed. In addition, Delhi and Kolkata showed a positive association between long-term exposure to the AAP and COVID-19 CFR.ConclusionOur findings support the hypothesis that the particulate matter upon exceeding the satisfactory level serves as an important cofactor in increasing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and related mortality. These findings would help public health experts to understand the SARS-CoV-2 transmission against ecological variables in India and provides supporting evidence to healthcare policymakers and government agencies for formulating strategies to combat the COVID-19.

Project description:BackgroundMore than 2 months have passed since the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) first emerged in Wuhan, China. With the migration of people, the epidemic has rapidly spread within China and throughout the world. Due to the severity of the epidemic, undiscovered transmission of COVID-19 deserves further investigation. The aim of our study hypothesized possible modes of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and how the virus may have spread between two family clusters within a residential building in Guangzhou, China.MethodsIn a cross-sectional study, we monitored and traced confirmed patients and their close contacts from January 11 to February 5, 2020 in Guangzhou, China, including 2 family cluster cases and 61 residents within one residential building. The environmental samples of the building and the throat swabs from the patients and from their related individuals were collected for SARS-CoV-2 and tested with real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The relevant information was collected and reported using big data tools.ResultsThere were two notable family cluster cases in Guangzhou, which included 3 confirmed patients (family No.1: patient A, B, C) and 2 confirmed patients (family No.2: patient D, E), respectively. None of patients had contact with other confirmed patients before the onset of symptoms, and only patient A and patient B made a short stop in Wuhan by train. Home environment inspection results showed that the door handle of family No.1 was positive of SARS-CoV-2. The close contacts of the 5 patients all tested negative of SARS-CoV-2 and in good health, and therefore were released after the official medical observation period of 14-days. Finally, according to the traceability investigation through applying big data analysis, we found an epidemiological association between family No.1 and family No.2, in which patient D (family No.2) was infected through touching an elevator button contaminated by snot with virus from patient A (family No.1) on the same day.ConclusionsContaminants with virus from confirmed patients can pollute the environment of public places, and the virus can survive on the surface of objects for a short period of time. Therefore, in addition to the conventional droplet transmission, there is also indirect contact transmission such as snot-oral transmission that plays a crucial role in community spread of the virus.

Dataset Information

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Importance

Objective

Setting

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

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