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An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

ABSTRACT: Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

SUBMITTER: Thompson KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7894996 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Thompson Kimberly M KM Kalkowska Dominika A DA

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 20210201 2

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays ...[more]

PMID: 33590521

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Project description:Community engagement (CE) is an important component of public health research and program implementation, especially in low- and middle-income countries. More recently, CE activities have been utilized to develop partnerships in research and program implementation processes, and advocate for policy recommendations with the aim to improve acceptance and reduce disparities of public health research activities and benefits in the involved communities. Utilizing the tacit knowledge gained from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, this paper highlights the contributors and challenges to the implementation of the GPEI program's community engagement initiatives from an implementers' perspective. The study took a mixed methods approach to analyze data collected from the Synthesis and Translation of Research and Innovations from Polio Eradication (STRIPE) project, which conducted an online survey and hosted key informant interviews with individuals who had been engaged with the GPEI program from 1988 onwards for at least 12 or more continuous months. An analysis of data limited to individuals (32%, N = 3659) who were primarily involved in CE activities revealed that around 24% were front-line healthcare workers, 21% were supervisors and 8% were surveillance officers. CE activities mainly focused on building trust within the communities, addressing misinformation, myths and fears around vaccinations, mobilization to reach high-risk or hard to reach populations, as well as building ownership and buy in from the communities. The strength of the implemental process of a program (38.7%) was among the key drivers of success, coupled with personal beliefs and characteristics of the implementers (25.3%). Social, political, and financial forces received mixed opinions as to their importance, depending on the stage of execution and readiness of the communities to accept the programs. Lessons learnt from the GPEI program provide tried and tested best practices and evidence for strategies that would work in diverse backgrounds with some customization to suit the needs of the situation.

Project description:There are currently huge efforts by the World Health Organization and partners to complete global polio eradication. With the significant decline in poliomyelitis cases due to wild poliovirus in recent years, rare cases related to the use of live-attenuated oral polio vaccine assume greater importance. Poliovirus strains in the oral vaccine are known to quickly revert to neurovirulent phenotype following replication in humans after immunisation. These strains can transmit from person to person leading to poliomyelitis outbreaks and can replicate for long periods of time in immunodeficient individuals leading to paralysis or chronic infection, with currently no effective treatment to stop excretion from these patients. Here, we describe an individual who has been excreting type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus for twenty eight years as estimated by the molecular clock established with VP1 capsid gene nucleotide sequences of serial isolates. This represents by far the longest period of excretion described from such a patient who is the only identified individual known to be excreting highly evolved vaccine-derived poliovirus at present. Using a range of in vivo and in vitro assays we show that the viruses are very virulent, antigenically drifted and excreted at high titre suggesting that such chronic excreters pose an obvious risk to the eradication programme. Our results in virus neutralization assays with human sera and immunisation-challenge experiments using transgenic mice expressing the human poliovirus receptor indicate that while maintaining high immunisation coverage will likely confer protection against paralytic disease caused by these viruses, significant changes in immunisation strategies might be required to effectively stop their occurrence and potential widespread transmission. Eventually, new stable live-attenuated polio vaccines with no risk of reversion might be required to respond to any poliovirus isolation in the post-eradication era.

Project description:ObjectivesTo document lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) by determining factors associated with successful surveillance programme globally as well as at national and subnational levels. The process of conducting surveillance has been previously recognised in the literature as important for the success of polio surveillance activities.DesignA cross-sectional survey with closed and open-ended questions.SettingsSurvey of persons involved in the implementation of surveillance activities under the GPEI at the global level and in seven low-income and middle-income countries.ParticipantsIndividuals (n=802) with ≥12 months of experience implementing surveillance objective of the GPEI between 1988 and 2019.Main outcome measures and methodsQuantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess factors associated with implementation process as a factor for successful surveillance programme. Horizontal analysis was used to analyse qualitative free-text responses on facilitators and barriers identified for conducting surveillance activities successfully.ResultsOverall, participants who reported challenges relating to GPEI programme characteristics had 50% lower odds of reporting implementation process as a factor for successful surveillance (adjusted OR (AOR): 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85). Challenges were mainly perceptions of external intervention source (ie, surveillance perceived as 'foreign' to local communities) and the complexity of surveillance processes (ie, surveillance required several intricate steps). Those who reported organisational challenges were almost two times more likely to report implementation process as a factor for successful surveillance (AOR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.07 to 3.31) overall, and over threefolds (AOR: 3.32, 95% CI: 1.14 to 9.66) at the national level.ConclusionsProgramme characteristics may have impeded the process of conducting surveillance under the GPEI, while organisational characteristics may have facilitated the process. Future surveillance programmes should be designed with inputs from local communities and frontline implementers.

Project description:ObjectiveThis study employed the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to assess factors that enhanced or impeded the implementation of community engagement strategies using the Nigerian polio programme as a point of reference.DesignThis study was a part of a larger descriptive cross-sectional survey. The CFIR was used to design the instrument which was administered through face-to-face and phone interviews as well as a web-based data collection platform, Qualtrics.SettingThe study took place in at least one State from each of the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria (Nasarawa, Borno, Kano, Sokoto, Anambra, Bayelsa, Lagos, Ondo and Oyo States as well as the Federal Capital Territory).ParticipantsThe respondents included programme managers, policy-makers, researchers and frontline field implementers affiliated with the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (PEI) core partner organisations, the three tiers of the government health parastatals (local, state and federal levels) and academic/research institutions.ResultsData for this study were obtained from 364 respondents who reported participation in community engagement activities in Nigeria's PEI. Majority (68.4%) had less than 10 years' experience in PEI, 57.4% were involved at the local government level and 46.9% were team supervisors. Almost half (45.0%) of the participants identified the process of conducting the PEI program and social environment (56.0%) as the most important internal and external contributor to implementing community engagement activities in the community, respectively. The economic environment (35.7%) was the most frequently reported challenge among the external challenges to implementing community engagement activities.ConclusionCommunity engagement strategies were largely affected by the factors relating to the process of conducting the polio programme, the economic environment and the social context. Therefore, community engagement implementers should focus on these key areas and channel resources to reduce obstacles to achieve community engagement goals.

Dataset Information

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

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An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

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