Dataset Information

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

ABSTRACT: Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

SUBMITTER: Thompson KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7894996 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Thompson Kimberly M KM Kalkowska Dominika A DA

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 20210201 2

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays ...[more]

PMID: 33590521

Similar Datasets

Project description:There are currently huge efforts by the World Health Organization and partners to complete global polio eradication. With the significant decline in poliomyelitis cases due to wild poliovirus in recent years, rare cases related to the use of live-attenuated oral polio vaccine assume greater importance. Poliovirus strains in the oral vaccine are known to quickly revert to neurovirulent phenotype following replication in humans after immunisation. These strains can transmit from person to person leading to poliomyelitis outbreaks and can replicate for long periods of time in immunodeficient individuals leading to paralysis or chronic infection, with currently no effective treatment to stop excretion from these patients. Here, we describe an individual who has been excreting type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus for twenty eight years as estimated by the molecular clock established with VP1 capsid gene nucleotide sequences of serial isolates. This represents by far the longest period of excretion described from such a patient who is the only identified individual known to be excreting highly evolved vaccine-derived poliovirus at present. Using a range of in vivo and in vitro assays we show that the viruses are very virulent, antigenically drifted and excreted at high titre suggesting that such chronic excreters pose an obvious risk to the eradication programme. Our results in virus neutralization assays with human sera and immunisation-challenge experiments using transgenic mice expressing the human poliovirus receptor indicate that while maintaining high immunisation coverage will likely confer protection against paralytic disease caused by these viruses, significant changes in immunisation strategies might be required to effectively stop their occurrence and potential widespread transmission. Eventually, new stable live-attenuated polio vaccines with no risk of reversion might be required to respond to any poliovirus isolation in the post-eradication era.

Project description:ObjectiveThis study employed the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to assess factors that enhanced or impeded the implementation of community engagement strategies using the Nigerian polio programme as a point of reference.DesignThis study was a part of a larger descriptive cross-sectional survey. The CFIR was used to design the instrument which was administered through face-to-face and phone interviews as well as a web-based data collection platform, Qualtrics.SettingThe study took place in at least one State from each of the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria (Nasarawa, Borno, Kano, Sokoto, Anambra, Bayelsa, Lagos, Ondo and Oyo States as well as the Federal Capital Territory).ParticipantsThe respondents included programme managers, policy-makers, researchers and frontline field implementers affiliated with the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (PEI) core partner organisations, the three tiers of the government health parastatals (local, state and federal levels) and academic/research institutions.ResultsData for this study were obtained from 364 respondents who reported participation in community engagement activities in Nigeria's PEI. Majority (68.4%) had less than 10 years' experience in PEI, 57.4% were involved at the local government level and 46.9% were team supervisors. Almost half (45.0%) of the participants identified the process of conducting the PEI program and social environment (56.0%) as the most important internal and external contributor to implementing community engagement activities in the community, respectively. The economic environment (35.7%) was the most frequently reported challenge among the external challenges to implementing community engagement activities.ConclusionCommunity engagement strategies were largely affected by the factors relating to the process of conducting the polio programme, the economic environment and the social context. Therefore, community engagement implementers should focus on these key areas and channel resources to reduce obstacles to achieve community engagement goals.

Project description:The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of 10,000 or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To complete polio eradication, OPV use should eventually cease, but doing so will leave a growing population fully susceptible to infection. If poliovirus is reintroduced after OPV cessation, under what conditions will OPV vaccination be required to interrupt transmission? Can conditions exist in which OPV and WPV reintroduction present similar risks of transmission? To answer these questions, we built a multi-scale mathematical model of infection and transmission calibrated to data from clinical trials and field epidemiology studies. At the within-host level, the model describes the effects of vaccination and waning immunity on shedding and oral susceptibility to infection. At the between-host level, the model emulates the interaction of shedding and oral susceptibility with sanitation and person-to-person contact patterns to determine the transmission rate in communities. Our results show that inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) is sufficient to prevent outbreaks in low transmission rate settings and that OPV can be reintroduced and withdrawn as needed in moderate transmission rate settings. However, in high transmission rate settings, the conditions that support vaccine-derived outbreaks have only been rare because population immunity has been high. Absent population immunity, the Sabin strains from OPV will be nearly as capable of causing outbreaks as WPV. If post-cessation outbreak responses are followed by new vaccine-derived outbreaks, strategies to restore population immunity will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication.

Dataset Information

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Publications

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets