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Can late stage marine mortality explain observed shifts in age structure of Chinook salmon?

ABSTRACT: Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations have experienced widespread declines in abundance and abrupt shifts toward younger and smaller adults returning to spawn in rivers. The causal agents underpinning these shifts are largely unknown. Here we investigate the potential role of late-stage marine mortality, defined as occurring after the first winter at sea, in driving this species' changing age structure. Simulations using a stage-based life cycle model that included additional mortality during after the first winter at sea better reflected observed changes in the age structure of a well-studied and representative population of Chinook salmon from the Yukon River drainage, compared with a model estimating environmentally-driven variation in age-specific survival alone. Although the specific agents of late-stage mortality are not known, our finding is consistent with work reporting predation by salmon sharks (Lamna ditropis) and marine mammals including killer whales (Orcinus orca). Taken as a whole, this work suggests that Pacific salmon mortality after the first winter at sea is likely to be higher than previously thought and highlights the need to investigate selective sources of mortality, such as predation, as major contributors to rapidly changing age structure of spawning adult Chinook salmon.

SUBMITTER: Manishin KA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7895375 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Can late stage marine mortality explain observed shifts in age structure of Chinook salmon?

Manishin Kaitlyn A KA Cunningham Curry J CJ Westley Peter A H PAH Seitz Andrew C AC

PloS one 20210219 2

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations have experienced widespread declines in abundance and abrupt shifts toward younger and smaller adults returning to spawn in rivers. The causal agents underpinning these shifts are largely unknown. Here we investigate the potential role of late-stage marine mortality, defined as occurring after the first winter at sea, in driving this species' changing age structure. Simulations using a stage-based life cycle model that included additional mor ...[more]

PMID: 33606847

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Project description:Experiences of migratory species in one habitat may affect their survival in the next habitat, in what is known as carryover effects. These effects are especially relevant for understanding how freshwater experience affects survival in anadromous fishes. Here, we study the carryover effects of juvenile salmon passage through a hydropower system (Snake and Columbia rivers, northwestern United States). To reduce the direct effect of hydrosystem passage on juveniles, some fishes are transported through the hydrosystem in barges, while the others are allowed to migrate in-river. Although hydrosystem survival of transported fishes is greater than that of their run-of-river counterparts, their relative juvenile-to-adult survival (hereafter survival) can be less. We tested for carryover effects using generalized linear mixed effects models of survival with over 1 million tagged Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum) (Salmonidae), migrating in 1999-2013. Carryover effects were identified with rear-type (wild vs. hatchery), passage-type (run-of-river vs. transported), and freshwater and marine covariates. Importantly, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index characterizing cool/warm (i.e., productive/nonproductive) ocean phases had a strong influence on the relative survival of rear- and passage-types. Specifically, transportation benefited wild Chinook salmon more in cool PDO years, while hatchery counterparts benefited more in warm PDO years. Transportation was detrimental for wild Chinook salmon migrating early in the season, but beneficial for later season migrants. Hatchery counterparts benefited from transportation throughout the season. Altogether, wild fish could benefit from transportation approximately 2 weeks earlier during cool PDO years, with still a benefit to hatchery counterparts. Furthermore, we found some support for hypotheses related to higher survival with increased river flow, high predation in the estuary and plume areas, and faster migration and development-related increased survival with temperature. Thus, pre- and within-season information on local- and broad-scale conditions across habitats can be useful for planning and implementing real-time conservation programs.

Dataset Information

Can late stage marine mortality explain observed shifts in age structure of Chinook salmon?

Publications

Can late stage marine mortality explain observed shifts in age structure of Chinook salmon?

Similar Datasets

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