Dataset Information

Density estimation of tiger and leopard using spatially explicit capture-recapture framework.

ABSTRACT: The conservation of large carnivores often requires precise and accurate estimates of their populations. Being cryptic and occurring at low population densities, obtaining an unbiased population estimate is difficult in large carnivores. To overcome the uncertainties in the conventional capture-recapture (CR) methods used to estimate large carnivore densities, more robust methods such as spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) framework are now widely used. We modeled the CR data of tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) and leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) in the SECR framework with biotic and abiotic covariates likely believed to influence their densities. An effort of 2,211 trap nights resulted in the capture of 33 and 38 individual tigers and leopards. A total of 95 and 74 detections of tigers and leopards were achieved using 35 pairs of camera traps. Tiger and leopard density were estimated at 4.71 ± 1.20 (3.05-5.11) and 3.03 ± 0.78 (1.85-4.99) per 100 km². Our results show that leopard density increased with high road density, high terrain ruggedness and habitats with high percentage of cropland and natural vegetation. The tiger density was positively influenced by the mosaic of cropland and natural vegetation. This study provides the first robust density estimates of tiger and leopard within the study area. Our results support the notion that large carnivores can attain moderate densities within human-dominated regions around protected areas relying on domestic livestock. Broader management strategies aimed at maintaining wild prey in the human-dominated areas around protected areas are necessary for large and endangered carnivores' sustenance in the buffer zones around protected areas.

SUBMITTER: Rather TA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7896501 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Density estimation of tiger and leopard using spatially explicit capture-recapture framework.

Rather Tahir Ali TA Rather Tahir Ali TA Kumar Sharad S Khan Jamal Ahmad JA

PeerJ 20210217

The conservation of large carnivores often requires precise and accurate estimates of their populations. Being cryptic and occurring at low population densities, obtaining an unbiased population estimate is difficult in large carnivores. To overcome the uncertainties in the conventional capture-recapture (CR) methods used to estimate large carnivore densities, more robust methods such as spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) framework are now widely used. We modeled the CR data of tiger (< ...[more]

PMID: 33643701

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Project description:Information about how animal abundance varies across landscapes is needed to inform management action but is costly and time-consuming to obtain; surveys of a single population distributed over a large area can take years to complete. Surveys employing small, spatially replicated sampling units improve efficiency, but statistical estimators rely on assumptions that constrain survey design or become less reasonable as larger areas are sampled. Efficient methods that avoid assumptions about similarity of detectability or density among replicates are therefore appealing. Using simulations and data from >3500 black bears sampled on 73 independent study areas in Ontario, Canada, we (1) quantified bias induced by unmodeled spatial heterogeneity in detectability and density; (2) evaluated novel, design-based estimators of average density across replicate study areas; and (3) evaluated two estimators of the variance of average density across study areas: an analytic estimator that assumed an underlying homogeneous spatial Poisson point process for the distribution of animals' activity centers, and an empirical estimator of variance across study areas. In simulations where detectability varied in space, assuming spatially constant detectability yielded density estimates that were negatively biased by 20% to 30%; estimating local detectability and density from local data and treating study areas as independent, equal replicates when estimating average density across study areas using the design-based estimator yielded unbiased estimates at local and landscape scales. Similarly, detectability of black bears varied among study areas and estimates of bear density at landscape scales were higher when no information was shared across study areas when estimating detectability. This approach also maximized precision (relative SEs of estimates of average black bear density ranged from 7% to 18%) and computational efficiency. In simulations, the analytic variance estimator was robust to threefold variation in local densities but the empirical estimator performed poorly. Conducting multiple, similar SECR surveys and treating them as independent replicates during analyses allowed us to efficiently estimate density at multiple scales and extents while avoiding biases caused by pooling spatially heterogeneous data. This approach enables researchers to address a wide range of ecological or management-related questions and is applicable with most types of SECR data.

Project description:Camera trapping is the standard field method of monitoring cryptic, low-density mammal populations. Typically, researchers run camera surveys for 60 to 90 days and estimate density using closed population spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models. The SCR models estimate density, capture probability (g0), and a scale parameter (?) that reflects ranging behaviour. We used a year of camera data from 20 camera stations to estimate the density of male jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary in Belize, using closed population SCR models. We subsampled the dataset into 276 90-day sessions and 186 180-day sessions. Estimated density fluctuated from 0.51 to 5.30 male jaguars / 100 km2 between the 90-day sessions, with comparatively robust and precise estimates for the 180-day sessions (0.73 to 3.75 male jaguars / 100 km2). We explain the variation in density estimates from the 90-day sessions in terms of temporal variation in social behaviour, specifically male competition and mating events during the three-month wet season. Density estimates from the 90-day sessions varied with ?, but not with the number of individuals detected, suggesting that variation in density was almost fully attributable to changes in estimated ranging behaviour. We found that the models overestimated ? when compared to the mean ranging distance derived from GPS tracking data from two collared individuals in the camera grid. Overestimation of ? when compared to GPS collar data was more pronounced for the 180-day sessions than the 90-day sessions. We conclude that one-off ('snap-shot') short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys do not sufficiently sample wide-ranging large carnivores. When using SCR models to estimate the density from these data, we caution against the use of poor sampling designs and/or misinterpretation of scope of inference. Although the density estimates from one-off, short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys may be statistically accurate within each short-term sampling period, the variation between density estimates from multiple sessions throughout the year illustrate that the estimates obtained should be carefully interpreted and extrapolated, because different factors, such as temporal stochasticity in behaviour of a few individuals, may have strong repercussions on density estimates. Because of temporal variation in behaviour, reliable density estimates will require larger samples of individuals and spatial recaptures than those presented in this study (mean +/- SD = 14.2 +/- 1.2 individuals, 37.7 +/- 4.7 spatial recaptures, N = 276 sessions), which are representative of, or higher than published sample sizes. To satisfy the need for larger samples, camera surveys will need to be more expansive with a higher density of stations. In the absence of this, we advocate longer sampling periods and subsampling through time as a means of understanding and describing stability or variation between density estimates.

Project description:BackgroundDensity estimation is a key issue in wildlife management but is particularly challenging and labour-intensive for elusive species. Recently developed approaches based on remotely collected data and capture-recapture models, though representing a valid alternative to more traditional methods, have found little application to species with limited morphological variation. We implemented a camera trap capture-recapture study to survey wolf packs in a 560-km2 area of Central Italy. Individual recognition of focal animals (alpha) in the packs was possible by relying on morphological and behavioural traits and was validated by non-invasive genotyping and inter-observer agreement tests. Two types (Bayesian and likelihood-based) of spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models were fitted on wolf pack capture histories, thus obtaining an estimation of pack density in the area.ResultsIn two sessions of camera trapping surveys (2014 and 2015), we detected a maximum of 12 wolf packs. A Bayesian model implementing a half-normal detection function without a trap-specific response provided the most robust result, corresponding to a density of 1.21 ± 0.27 packs/100 km2 in 2015. Average pack size varied from 3.40 (summer 2014, excluding pups and lone-transient wolves) to 4.17 (late winter-spring 2015, excluding lone-transient wolves).ConclusionsWe applied for the first time a camera-based SCR approach in wolves, providing the first robust estimate of wolf pack density for an area of Italy. We showed that this method is applicable to wolves under the following conditions: i) the existence of sufficient phenotypic/behavioural variation and the recognition of focal individuals (i.e. alpha, verified by non-invasive genotyping); ii) the investigated area is sufficiently large to include a minimum number of packs (ideally 10); iii) a pilot study is carried out to pursue an adequate sampling design and to train operators on individual wolf recognition. We believe that replicating this approach in other areas can allow for an assessment of density variation across the wolf range and would provide a reliable reference parameter for ecological studies.

Project description:Few studies have evaluated the optimal sampling design for tracking small mammal population trends, especially for rare or difficult to detect species. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models present an advancement over non-spatial models by accounting for individual movement when estimating density. The salt marsh harvest mouse (SMHM; Reithrodontomys raviventris) is a federal and California state listed endangered species endemic to the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary, California, USA; where a population in a subembayment has been continually monitored over an 18-year period using mark-recapture methods. We analyzed capture data within a SECR modeling framework that allowed us to account for differences in detection and movement between sexes. We compared the full dataset to subsampling scenarios to evaluate how the grid size (area) of the trap design, trap density (spacing), and number of consecutive trapping occasions (duration) influenced density estimates. To validate the subsampling methods, we ran Monte Carlo simulations based on the true parameter estimates for each specific year. We found that reducing the area of the trapping design by more than 36% resulted in the inability of the SECR model to replicate density estimates within the SE of the original density estimates. However, when trapping occasions were reduced from 4 to 3-nights the density estimates were indistinguishable from the full dataset. Furthermore, reducing trap density by 50% also resulted in density estimates comparable to the full dataset and was a substantially better model than reducing the trap area by 50%. Overall, our results indicated that moderate reductions in the number of trapping occasions or trap density could yield similar density estimates when using a SECR approach. This approach allows the optimization of field trapping efforts and designs by reducing field efforts while maintaining the same population estimate compared to the full dataset. Using a SECR approach may help other wildlife programs identify sampling efficiencies without sacrificing data integrity for long term monitoring of population densities.

Project description:Estimating population sizes has long been of interest, from the estimation of the human or ecological population size within regions or countries to the hidden number of civilian casualties in a war. Total enumeration of the population, for example, via a census, is often infeasible or simply impractical. However, a series of partial enumerations or observations of the population is often possible. This has led to the ideas of capture-recapture methods, which have been extensively used within ecology to estimate the size of wildlife populations, with an associated measure of uncertainty, and are most effectively applied when there are multiple capture occasions. Capture-recapture ideology can be more widely applied to multiple data-sources, by the linkage of individuals across the multiple lists. This is often referred to as Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE). The MSE approach has been preferred when estimating "capture-shy" or hard-to-reach populations, including those caught up in the criminal justice system; or homeless; or trafficked; or civilian casualties of war. Motivated by a range of public policy applications of MSE, each briefly introduced, we discuss practical problems with potentially substantial methodological implications. They include: "period" definition; "case" definition; when an observed count is not a true count of the population of interest but an upper bound due to mismatched definitions; exact or probabilistic matching of "cases" across different lists; demographic or other information about the "case" which may influence capture-propensities; required permissions to access extant-lists; list-creation by research-teams or interested parties; referrals (if presence on list A results - almost surely - in presence on list B); different mathematical models leading to widely different estimated population sizes; uncertainty in estimation; computational efficiency; external validation; hypothesis-generation; and additional independent external information. Returning to our motivational applications, we focus on whether the uncertainty which qualified their estimates was sufficiently narrow to orient public policy; and, if not, what options were available and/or taken to reduce the uncertainty or to seek external validation. We also consider whether MSE was hypothesis-generating: in the sense of having spawned new lines of inquiry.

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Dataset Information

Density estimation of tiger and leopard using spatially explicit capture-recapture framework.

Publications

Density estimation of tiger and leopard using spatially explicit capture-recapture framework.

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