Dataset Information

Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux.

ABSTRACT: Numerical weather prediction models are progressively used to downscale future climate in cities at increasing spatial resolutions. Boundary conditions representing rapidly growing urban areas are imperative to more plausible future predictions. In this work, 1-km global anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets of the present and future are constructed. To improve present AHE maps, 30 arc-second VIIRS satellite imagery outputs such as nighttime lights and night-fires were incorporated along with the LandScan^TM population dataset. A futuristic scenario of AHE was also developed while considering pathways of radiative forcing (i.e. representative concentration pathways), pathways of social conditions (i.e. shared socio-economic pathways), a 1-km future urbanization probability map, and a model to estimate changes in population distribution. The new dataset highlights two distinct features; (1) a more spatially-heterogeneous representation of AHE is captured compared with other recent datasets, and (2) consideration of future urban sprawls and climate change in futuristic AHE maps. Significant increases in projected AHE for multiple cities under a worst-case scenario strengthen the need for further assessment of futuristic AHE.

SUBMITTER: Varquez ACG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7900113 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux.

Varquez Alvin Christopher Galang ACG Kiyomoto Shota S Khanh Do Ngoc DN Kanda Manabu M

Scientific data 20210222 1

Numerical weather prediction models are progressively used to downscale future climate in cities at increasing spatial resolutions. Boundary conditions representing rapidly growing urban areas are imperative to more plausible future predictions. In this work, 1-km global anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets of the present and future are constructed. To improve present AHE maps, 30 arc-second VIIRS satellite imagery outputs such as nighttime lights and night-fires were incorporated along wi ...[more]

PMID: 33619279

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Project description:ImportancePrevious studies have demonstrated the associations of daily high temperature with hospitalizations and mortality from ischemic stroke, but the hourly association of ambient heat and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) onset has been rarely examined.ObjectivesTo evaluate the association between hourly high ambient temperature and the onset of AIS.Design, setting, and participantsThis time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted using a nationwide registry that collects data from more than 200 stroke centers in China. Participants were adult patients with AIS who were hospitalized in the warm seasons between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021.ExposuresHourly temperature and single-hour temperature exposure lag up to 24 hours before the AIS onset (lag 0 hours to lag 24 hours).Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was onset of AIS. Associations between hourly mean temperatures and AIS onset were analyzed using conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Stratification analyses were applied to examine potential association modifiers. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the results.ResultsA total of 82 455 patients with AIS (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [11.9] years; 52 267 males [63.4%]) were included in the final analysis. A monotonically increasing risk of AIS onset was associated with higher temperatures. The excess AIS risk occurred immediately at lag 0 hours and persisted for 10 hours. Compared with the reference temperature (12.1 °C), the cumulative odds ratio (OR) over lag 0 to 10 hours of AIS onset associated with extremely high temperature (33.3 °C) was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.65-2.13) nationwide. The exposure-response curve was steeper in the north than in the south (OR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.53-2.11] vs 1.57 [95% CI, 1.31-1.87]). The ORs were greater for males and patients with a history of dyslipidemia or atrial fibrillation, but the differences were not significant.Conclusions and relevanceResults of this study suggest that hourly heat exposure is associated with increased risk of AIS onset. This finding may benefit the formulation of public health strategies to reduce cerebrovascular risk associated with high ambient temperature under global warming.

Project description:Kelp forest ecosystems and their associated ecosystem services are declining around the world. In response, marine managers are working to restore and counteract these declines. Kelp restoration first started in the 1700s in Japan and since then has spread across the globe. Restoration efforts, however, have been largely disconnected, with varying methodologies trialled by different actors in different countries. Moreover, a small subset of these efforts are 'afforestation', which focuses on creating new kelp habitat, as opposed to restoring kelp where it previously existed. To distil lessons learned over the last 300 years of kelp restoration, we review the history of kelp restoration (including afforestation) around the world and synthesise the results of 259 documented restoration attempts spanning from 1957 to 2020, across 16 countries, five languages, and multiple user groups. Our results show that kelp restoration projects have increased in frequency, have employed 10 different methodologies and targeted 17 different kelp genera. Of these projects, the majority have been led by academics (62%), have been conducted at sizes of less than 1 ha (80%) and took place over time spans of less than 2 years. We show that projects are most successful when they are located near existing kelp forests. Further, disturbance events such as sea-urchin grazing are identified as regular causes of project failure. Costs for restoration are historically high, averaging hundreds of thousands of dollars per hectare, therefore we explore avenues to reduce these costs and suggest financial and legal pathways for scaling up future restoration efforts. One key suggestion is the creation of a living database which serves as a platform for recording restoration projects, showcasing and/or re-analysing existing data, and providing updated information. Our work establishes the groundwork to provide adaptive and relevant recommendations on best practices for kelp restoration projects today and into the future.

Dataset Information

Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux.

Publications

Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux.

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