Dataset Information

Identifying New/Emerging Psychoactive Substances at the Time of COVID-19; A Web-Based Approach.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19-related disruptions of people and goods' circulation can affect drug markets, especially for new psychoactive substances (NPSs). Drug shortages could cause a change in available NPS, with the introduction of new, unknown, substances. The aims of the current research were to use a web crawler, NPSfinder®, to identify and categorize emerging NPS discussed on a range of drug enthusiasts/psychonauts' websites/fora at the time of the pandemic; social media for these identified NPS were screened as well. The NPSfinder® was used here to automatically scan 24/7 a list of psychonaut websites and NPS online resources. The NPSs identified in the time frame between January and August 2020 were searched in both the European Monitoring Center for Drugs and Drug Addictions (EMCDDA)/United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) databases and on social media (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest, and YouTube) as well, with a content qualitative analysis having been carried out on reddit.com. Of a total of 229 NPSs being discussed at the time of the pandemic, some 18 NPSs were identified for the first time by the NPSfinder®. These included six cathinones, six opioids, two synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists (SCRAs), two phenylcyclohexylpiperidine (PCP)-like molecules, and two psychedelics. Of these NPSs, 10 were found to be previously unreported to either the UNODC or the EMCDDA. Of these 18 NPSs, opioids and cathinones were the most discussed on social media/reddit, with the highest number of threads associated. Current findings may support the use of both automated web crawlers and social listening approaches to identify emerging NPSs; the pandemic-related imposed restrictions may somehow influence the demand for specific NPS classes.

SUBMITTER: Catalani V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7900492 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identifying New/Emerging Psychoactive Substances at the Time of COVID-19; A Web-Based Approach.

Catalani Valeria V Arillotta Davide D Corkery John Martin JM Guirguis Amira A Vento Alessandro A Schifano Fabrizio F

Frontiers in psychiatry 20210209

COVID-19-related disruptions of people and goods' circulation can affect drug markets, especially for new psychoactive substances (NPSs). Drug shortages could cause a change in available NPS, with the introduction of new, unknown, substances. The aims of the current research were to use a web crawler, NPSfinder®, to identify and categorize emerging NPS discussed on a range of drug enthusiasts/psychonauts' websites/fora at the time of the pandemic; social media for these identified NPS were scree ...[more]

PMID: 33633599

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Project description:BackgroundNo versatile web app exists that allows epidemiologists and managers around the world to comprehensively analyze the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation. The http://covid-webapp.numerusinc.com/ web app presented here fills this gap.MethodsOur web app uses a model that explicitly identifies susceptible, contact, latent, asymptomatic, symptomatic and recovered classes of individuals, and a parallel set of response classes, subject to lower pathogen-contact rates. The user inputs a CSV file of incidence and, if of interest, mortality rate data. A default set of parameters is available that can be overwritten through input or online entry, and a user-selected subset of these can be fitted to the model using maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). Model fitting and forecasting intervals are specifiable and changes to parameters allow counterfactual and forecasting scenarios. Confidence or credible intervals can be generated using stochastic simulations, based on MLE values, or on an inputted CSV file containing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates of one or more parameters.ResultsWe illustrate the use of our web app in extracting social distancing, social relaxation, surveillance or virulence switching functions (i.e., time varying drivers) from the incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 epidemics in Israel, South Africa, and England. The Israeli outbreak exhibits four distinct phases: initial outbreak, social distancing, social relaxation, and a second wave mitigation phase. An MCMC projection of this latter phase suggests the Israeli epidemic will continue to produce into late November an average of around 1500 new case per day, unless the population practices social-relaxation measures at least 5-fold below the level in August, which itself is 4-fold below the level at the start of July. Our analysis of the relatively late South African outbreak that became the world's fifth largest COVID-19 epidemic in July revealed that the decline through late July and early August was characterised by a social distancing driver operating at more than twice the per-capita applicable-disease-class (pc-adc) rate of the social relaxation driver. Our analysis of the relatively early English outbreak, identified a more than 2-fold improvement in surveillance over the course of the epidemic. It also identified a pc-adc social distancing rate in early August that, though nearly four times the pc-adc social relaxation rate, appeared to barely contain a second wave that would break out if social distancing was further relaxed.ConclusionOur web app provides policy makers and health officers who have no epidemiological modelling or computer coding expertise with an invaluable tool for assessing the impacts of different outbreak mitigation policies and measures. This includes an ability to generate an epidemic-suppression or curve-flattening index that measures the intensity with which behavioural responses suppress or flatten the epidemic curve in the region under consideration.

Dataset Information

Identifying New/Emerging Psychoactive Substances at the Time of COVID-19; A Web-Based Approach.

Publications

Identifying New/Emerging Psychoactive Substances at the Time of COVID-19; A Web-Based Approach.

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