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Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.

ABSTRACT: This paper aims to assess changes in the extreme climate indices of the Lower Songkhram River Basin of Thailand under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. A linear scaling method was used to correct climate data bias in three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Thereafter, extreme climate indices related to temperature and rainfall were analysed for the wet and dry seasons in upstream and downstream areas of the basin. A total of 14 climate indices were analysed for three time periods: the 2030s (2020-2044), 2055s (2045-2069), and 2080s (2070-2094) and compared with the baseline climate from 1980?2004. The results show that considerable variability is expected in the extreme climate of the basin in future. The average annual and monthly maximum and minimum temperature is projected to increase, with a lesser increase in the near future and higher in the far future. Heat events (TXx, TXn) are projected to increase while the cold events (TNx, TNn) are projected to decrease in both dry and wet seasons upstream and downstream of the basin. The future average annual rainfall in the basin is projected to decrease under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for all three periods. However, the variability in average monthly rainfall is expected to increase in the dry season (Jan-May) and decrease in the wet (Aug-Dec). The most intense rainfall in one day (RX1Day) and five consecutive days (RX5Day) in the wet season is observed to increase in future, with a higher increase in the near future and a lower increase in the far future. The very heavy rainfall days (R20) (the number of days receiving more than 20 mm/day in the basin) are observed to decrease in both wet and dry seasons under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in both locations. The results of this study will be helpful for the planning and management of natural resources as well as disaster risk reduction in the Lower Songkhram River Basin.

SUBMITTER: Shrestha S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7900689 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.

Shrestha Sumana S Roachanakanan Raywadee R

Heliyon 20210216 2

This paper aims to assess changes in the extreme climate indices of the Lower Songkhram River Basin of Thailand under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. A linear scaling method was used to correct climate data bias in three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Thereafter, extreme climate indices related to temperature and rainfall were analysed for the wet and dry seasons in upstream and downstream areas of the basin. A total of 14 climate indi ...[more]

PMID: 33665405

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Project description:Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in the 2050s. From the CAM-Chem global simulation results, ozone concentrations in the lower to mid-troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases by the end of the 2050s (2057-2059) in RCP 4.5 compared to present (2001-2004), with the largest decrease of 4-10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and an increase as high as 10 ppbv in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. From the regional model CMAQ simulation results, under the RCP 4.5 scenario (2057-2059), in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations compared to present (2001-2004), ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions. More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of the 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to a 0.3 ppbv to 2.0 ppbv increase (statistically significant except in the Southeast) of the mean maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone in nine climate regions in the US. Moreover, the upper 95% limit of MDA8 increase reaches 0.4 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv in RCP 4.5 and 0.6 ppbv to 3.2 ppbv in RCP 8.5. The magnitude differences of increase between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also reflect that the increase of methane emissions may favor or strengthen the effect of heat waves.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100.MethodsRegression relationships are established between historical (1995-2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model, VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).ResultsMaximum temperatures in the long rainy (March-May) and dry (June-September) seasons will likely increase by over 2.0 °C by 2070, relative to 1971-2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June-September) will likely increase by over 1.5-3.0 °C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to the 3-6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using an ensemble of models for projections.ConclusionsThe short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental suitability for malaria transmission.

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Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.

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Extreme climate projections under representative concentration pathways in the Lower Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.

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