Dataset Information

Observational Constraints on Warm Cloud Microphysical Processes Using Machine Learning and Optimization Techniques.

ABSTRACT: We introduce new parameterizations for autoconversion and accretion rates that greatly improve representation of the growth processes of warm rain. The new parameterizations capitalize on machine-learning and optimization techniques and are constrained by in situ cloud probe measurements from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program field campaign at Azores. The uncertainty in the new estimates of autoconversion and accretion rates is about 15% and 5%, respectively, outperforming existing parameterizations. Our results confirm that cloud and drizzle water content are the most important factors for determining accretion rates. However, for autoconversion, in addition to cloud water content and droplet number concentration, we discovered a key role of drizzle number concentration that is missing in current parameterizations. The robust relation between autoconversion rate and drizzle number concentration is surprising but real, and furthermore supported by theory. Thus, drizzle number concentration should be considered in parameterizations for improved representation of the autoconversion process.

SUBMITTER: Chiu JC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7900997 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Observational Constraints on Warm Cloud Microphysical Processes Using Machine Learning and Optimization Techniques.

Chiu J Christine JC Yang C Kevin CK van Leeuwen Peter Jan PJ Feingold Graham G Wood Robert R Blanchard Yann Y Mei Fan F Wang Jian J

Geophysical research letters 20210123 2

We introduce new parameterizations for autoconversion and accretion rates that greatly improve representation of the growth processes of warm rain. The new parameterizations capitalize on machine-learning and optimization techniques and are constrained by in situ cloud probe measurements from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program field campaign at Azores. The uncertainty in the new estimates of autoconversion and accretion rates is about 15% and 5%, respectively, outperforming exi ...[more]

PMID: 33678926

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Diabetes Mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease characterized by the body's inability to metabolize glucose. The objective of this study was to build an effective predictive model with high sensitivity and selectivity to better identify Canadian patients at risk of having Diabetes Mellitus based on patient demographic data and the laboratory results during their visits to medical facilities. METHODS:Using the most recent records of 13,309 Canadian patients aged between 18 and 90 years, along with their laboratory information (age, sex, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein), we built predictive models using Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) techniques. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory capability of these models. We used the adjusted threshold method and the class weight method to improve sensitivity - the proportion of Diabetes Mellitus patients correctly predicted by the model. We also compared these models to other learning machine techniques such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. RESULTS:The AROC for the proposed GBM model is 84.7% with a sensitivity of 71.6% and the AROC for the proposed Logistic Regression model is 84.0% with a sensitivity of 73.4%. The GBM and Logistic Regression models perform better than the Random Forest and Decision Tree models. CONCLUSIONS:The ability of our model to predict patients with Diabetes using some commonly used lab results is high with satisfactory sensitivity. These models can be built into an online computer program to help physicians in predicting patients with future occurrence of diabetes and providing necessary preventive interventions. The model is developed and validated on the Canadian population which is more specific and powerful to apply on Canadian patients than existing models developed from US or other populations. Fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides were the most important predictors in these models.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Machine learning techniques, specifically classification algorithms, may be effective to help understand key health, nutritional, and environmental factors associated with cognitive function in aging populations. OBJECTIVE:This study aims to use classification techniques to identify the key patient predictors that are considered most important in the classification of poorer cognitive performance, which is an early risk factor for dementia. METHODS:Data were used from the Trinity-Ulster and Department of Agriculture study, which included detailed information on sociodemographic, clinical, biochemical, nutritional, and lifestyle factors in 5186 older adults recruited from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, a proportion of whom (987/5186, 19.03%) were followed up 5-7 years later for reassessment. Cognitive function at both time points was assessed using a battery of tests, including the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS), with a score <70 classed as poorer cognitive performance. This study trained 3 classifiers-decision trees, Naïve Bayes, and random forests-to classify the RBANS score and to identify key health, nutritional, and environmental predictors of cognitive performance and cognitive decline over the follow-up period. It assessed their performance, taking note of the variables that were deemed important for the optimized classifiers for their computational diagnostics. RESULTS:In the classification of a low RBANS score (<70), our models performed well (F1 score range 0.73-0.93), all highlighting the individual's score from the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, the age at which the participant stopped education, and whether or not the participant's family reported memory concerns to be of key importance. The classification models performed well in classifying a greater rate of decline in the RBANS score (F1 score range 0.66-0.85), also indicating the TUG score to be of key importance, followed by blood indicators: plasma homocysteine, vitamin B6 biomarker (plasma pyridoxal-5-phosphate), and glycated hemoglobin. CONCLUSIONS:The results suggest that it may be possible for a health care professional to make an initial evaluation, with a high level of confidence, of the potential for cognitive dysfunction using only a few short, noninvasive questions, thus providing a quick, efficient, and noninvasive way to help them decide whether or not a patient requires a full cognitive evaluation. This approach has the potential benefits of making time and cost savings for health service providers and avoiding stress created through unnecessary cognitive assessments in low-risk patients.

Dataset Information

Observational Constraints on Warm Cloud Microphysical Processes Using Machine Learning and Optimization Techniques.

Publications

Observational Constraints on Warm Cloud Microphysical Processes Using Machine Learning and Optimization Techniques.

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